Week 13 at Atlanta Falcons
Leonard Fournette really put the Four in Fournette last week as he finished with four touchdowns (3 rushing, 1 receiving). Even if you take the touchdowns away, Fournette was extremely productive, rushing 17 times for 100 yards and catching 7-of-8 targets for 31 yards. He also played on 81% of the offensive snaps, just the second time this season he's played at least 65%. He'll draw a favorable matchup against the Falcons this week, who have allowed the 7th-most average fantasy points to opposing backs. Fournette had 76 scrimmage yards in his previous game against Atlanta, but that was in Week 2 when he had more of a timeshare with Ronald Jones. Fournette has distanced himself since then, so we'd expect more than the 15 touches he got in that game. Fournette has established himself as a strong RB1 play, especially in a favorable Week 13 matchup.
Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts
Leonard Fournette maintained his role for the most part last week as he finished with 10 carries for 35 yards and caught all six of his targets for 39 yards. He was unable to find the endzone, however, as Ronald Jones ended up vulturing a touchdown on the goal line. Heading into Week 12, fantasy owners can expect Fournette to keep his usual production. So we should see slightly above 10 carries with around five receptions for ~80 scrimmage yards. He does get a fairly tough matchup vs. the Colts, but his production should be fine. He should be viewed as a low-end RB1 or a strong RB2 play this week.
Week 11 vs. New York Giants
Leonard Fournette ran 11 times for 45 yards last week, but his real impact was as a receiver. Fournette caught 8-of-9 targets for 45 yards, giving him 90 scrimmage yards on the game. Fournette's role as a receiver this year has been fairly surprising as he's already passed his reception totals from a year ago. Fournette has been the clear RB1 in Tampa Bay, and he'll maintain that role in a favorable Week 11 matchup vs. the Giants. New York has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, making Fournette a great start. He'll be a strong RB1 play in Week 11.
Week 10 @ Washington Football Team
After a strong four-game stretch, Leonard Fournette had a poor performance in his last outing, finishing with just 43 scrimmage yards, his second-fewest in a game this season. Fournette played about the same amount of snaps, as usual, he just didn't see the touches he usually does. Fournette averaged over 20 touches per game in the four games leading into Week 8, and had just 11 touches in that game. Fournette gets an OK matchup this week against Washington. Washington has the odd distinction of allowing the most receiving touchdowns (7) to running backs this year, and Fournette could get more targets this week if Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are all inactive. We like Fournette as a low-end RB1 play in Week 10 vs. Washington.
Week 8 at New Orleans Saints
Leonard Fournette had another strong game last week, finishing with 15 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown. He had his worst performance of the season as a receiver, catching just two passes for nine yards, but he did have four targets which is a number he's seen in every game this year. Over the Bucs' past four games, Fournette has really taken hold of the starting role, averaging over 20 touches per game in that stretch. He had decreased playing time last week, but only because the Bucs pulled their starters late. Fournette should be a strong RB2 play this week, although he does get a tough matchup vs. the Saints. New Orleans is seventh in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Saints are allowing just 80.8 rush yards per game, which is the third-best in the league.
Week 7 vs. Chicago Bears
Leonard Fournette saw a season-high 28 touches last week (22 carries, 6 receptions), finishing with 127 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. We thought Fournette would be in a timeshare with Ronald Jones this season, but it's clearly been the Fournette show. He's seventh among all running backs in touches this season (103) and Jones has barely been a factor, playing fewer than 20% of the offensive snaps in all but one game this year. He does get a tough matchup against the Bears this week (3rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs), but we wouldn't be too concerned about that. Fournette is averaging 22 touches over his last three games, so even if he doesn't play well the volume will be there for a good game. He'll be a solid RB1 play in Week 7.
Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles
Leonard Fournette wasn't quite as involved in Week 5 as he was in Week 4, but he's still clearly the lead back in this offense. He played a team-high (among RBs) 62% of the snaps while seeing 16 touches (12 carries, 4 receptions) 110 yards and a touchdown. This is now back-to-back games he's topped 100 scrimmage yards and the fourth time he's seen at least 14 touches. He should top 15 touches again this week in a favorable matchup against the Eagles who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs this season. With Fournette's role pretty much established now, he can start to be viewed as a low-end RB1. He's been involved in the pass game (4.8 targets per game) and Ronald Jones hasn't been a major threat for carries.
Week 5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Leonard Fournette was heavily involved last week, seeing a season-high 20 carries. In fact, the last time Fournette had 20+ carries in a game was back in Jacksonville. Fournette turned those carries into 92 yards, and added 47 yards receiving on three catches and five targets. He also played on a season-high 82% of the offensive snaps, a sign that he's clearly taken the lead in this backfield over Ronald Jones. It's the first time in a regular-season game that Fournette has seen 80+ percent of the snaps. Assuming he carries that workload into Week 5, Fournette should be viewed as a borderline RB1. He gets a great matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs so far. We'd expect Fournette to finish around 100 scrimmage yards.
Week 4 at New England Patriots
The Bucs went with a super-heavy pass-first approach in Week 3, leaving Leonard Fournette with seven total touches, a season-low. Fournette carried the ball four times for eight yards while catching all three targets for 26 yards. The Bucs had been using Fournette as their primary receiving back, but Giovani Bernard finished 9-51-1 in Week 3, although he suffered an injury so we wouldn't be surprised to see Fournette return as a receiving option this week. Fournette gets an OK matchup against the Patriots this week. New England hasn't been as dominant at stopping running backs, although backs have not scored on the ground against the Patriots so far this season. With Bernard likely out, we like Fournette to be involved as both a runner and receiver this week, making him a solid RB2 play.
Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones actually had a fairly even split in terms of playing time (31 snaps compared to 26), but Fournette finished with way more touches (15 to 7). Last season, Jones had the slight edge over Fournette, but it's clear so far this year that the roles have reversed. Fournette was OK, finishing with 76 total yards and no touchdowns. He also had a fumble, but Bruce Arians didn't send him to the shadow realm as he did with Jones. He gets a pretty tough matchup this week against the Rams. We're expecting a similar performance as to what he had in Week 2, making him a solid RB3 or flex play for Week 3.
