Week 7 at Carolina Panthers
They can almost rename this team the Tampa Bay Fournettes with how often Leonard Fournette is getting the ball in this offense. Last week he ran 21 times and caught six passes, finishing with 101 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Fournette is third in the league in total touches (127) as the Bucs keep giving him the ball. He's seen 20 or more carries three times and has five or more receptions in four straight games (averaging 7.0 in that span). He should continue to see a lot of volume this week in a favorable matchup against the Panthers, who have given up the 9th-most average fantasy points to running backs this year. Fournette will be a must-start RB1 in Week 7.
Week 6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Leonard Fournette played 49 snaps in Week 5 and had 25 looks (14 carries, 11 targets). He was highly productive, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown while finishing 10-83-1 as a receiver. After not scoring through the first three games of the season, Fournette has now scored three touchdowns in his last two games. Fournette has also caught 17 passes in that span, which is interesting considering the Bucs are actually healthy at WR now. Fournette gets a decent matchup this week against the Steelers where he should be viewed as a solid RB1 play.
Week 5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Leonard Fournette had a bizarre game last week as he was held to just three carries for negative three yards. Thankfully he was involved in the pass game as he caught all seven of his targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. An interesting aspect, though, is that Fournette played a season-low 61% of the offensive snaps as Tampa Bay got rookie Rachaad White more involved. White saw eight touches (Fournette had 10) and played a season-high 38% of the offensive snaps. He even scored on a goal line touchdown. We still like Fournette moving forward, but White's increased role is worth monitoring. In Week 5, Fournette draws a favorable matchup against the Falcons. We'd expect him to carry the ball more than three times this week as he remains a strong RB1 play.
Week 4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Despite a favorable matchup, Leonard Fournette struggled to get going on the ground in Week 3. He ran a season-low 12 times for 35 yards, and also failed to find the end zone for the third straight game. He was bailed out in PPR leagues, though, catching five-of-six targets for 35 yards, giving him 70 total scrimmage yards. Another takeaway is the fact Fournette played on 91% of the offensive snaps. There's no committee here, and Fournette should easily see at least 15 touches every week. That's especially good news when he gets a favorable matchup like he does this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City is giving up the eighth-most average fantasy points to running backs this year. Fournette should be viewed as a strong RB2 play in Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Leonard Fournette took to Twitter this week to apologize to his fantasy owners for the lack of touchdowns. It's a nice gesture considering Fournette hasn't scored this season. Despite the lack of touchdowns, Fournette has been pretty productive. He's seen over 20 carries in each of his first two games with 211 total scrimmage yards. With the Bucs' wide receiver issues we wouldn't be surprised to see Fournette finish with 20+ carries for a third game in a row this week. And if he does, then he should have a good game considering the Packers have given up the second-most rushing yards to running backs this season. Oddly enough, though, the Packers haven't allowed any rushing touchdowns to running backs. Overall, it's a good matchup for a back seeing a ton of volume. Fournette is a strong RB1 play in Week 3.
Week 2 at New Orleans Saints
Leonard Fournette got off to a dominating start in Week 1. He ran the ball 21 times, which tied for fifth-most in the league, finishing with 127 yards on the ground. He wasn't involved much as a receiver, catching both of his two targets for 10 yards. But he wasn't needed as a receiver as the Bucs were looking to run out the clock on the ground with a heavy dose of Fournette. We already expected Lenny to hog the touches, but this was a nice confirmation of who owns this backfield. This week, Fournette faces a Saints defense that struggled against the run in Week 1, giving up 201 rush yards to the Falcons. Fournette should be viewed as a must-start option in Week 2 vs. the Saints.
Week 1 at Dallas Cowboys
Leonard Fournette was so good last year that the Bucs got rid of Ronald Jones in the offseason. Tampa did bring in rookie Rachaad White, but this is clearly Fournette's backfield. Fournette should see between 15-20 touches a game as long as he stays healthy. He unfortunately draws a tough matchup vs. the Cowboys in Week 1, though. Dallas allowed the 10th-fewest average fantasy points to running backs last year. In Week 1 vs. Dallas, Fournette had 14 touches (5 receptions) for 59 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns. Fournette could struggle a bit in a tough matchup, but he should see enough volume to make him valuable. He should still be seen as a low-end RB1 play this week.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Leonard Fournette defied expectations last season as he emerged as the every down threat for Tampa Bay, ending as RB5 prior to his ankle injury in Week 15. Ronald Jones turned into a non-factor, and the offseason signing of Giovani Bernard didn’t impact Fournette’s receiving stats. In fact, Fournette saw an increased role as a receiver as he finished 69-454-2 on 84 targets, finishing with the 3rd-most receptions of any running back last season. Fournette was dominant all year, averaging 90.4 scrimmage yards while scoring 10 times in 14 games. He was brought back on a three-year deal worth up to $24 million, showing the Bucs believe in him as their star back. Fournette should continue to see the bulk of the work in this high-powered Tom Brady led offense.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Jones is gone, but the Bucs still have 2020 3rd-round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn, they brought back Bernard, and spent a 3rd-round pick on RB Rachaad White. White shined as a receiving threat in college, catching 43-of-48 targets for 456 yards (5th among college RBs). A lot of Fournette’s success from last season was because he had such an increased role as a receiver, so if White eats into that, then there’s a lot of missed production for Fournette. Fournette also turns 28 at the end of the season, and that’s the age when we start to see running backs decline in production. There were also reports he showed up to camp weighing roughly 260 pounds and coaches were "not happy" about it. That weight increase is significant considering he's listed at 228 pounds.
2022 Bottom Line
While the addition of White is worth keeping an eye on, it’s hard to imagine a rookie taking over too much. Fournette proved himself to be a capable receiver last season, and even did so in Jacksonville with 76 receptions in 2019. Last season people thought Bernard would be the primary receiving back, but that never evolved. Fournette’s role seems mostly safe in this offense and he should top 1,200 scrimmage yards again as long as he stays healthy. He should be viewed as an RB1 with a chance of finishing as a top 10 fantasy back this season.
Week 15 vs. New Orleans Saints
Leonard Fournette continued his dominant season last week, rushing 19 times for 113 yards and a touchdown while also catching 4-of-7 targets for 19 yards. The Bucs have truly given Fournette the lead-back role in the past three weeks as he's played 80% of the offensive snaps or more in that stretch. Before that, he had only played more than 70% of the snaps once. And with more snaps comes more production, as Fournette has averaged 118.4 scrimmage yards with six total touchdowns in the last three games. However, his production could slow down somewhat this week in a tough matchup vs. the Saints, who have given up the fewest average fantasy points to opposing running backs. Fournette struggled in his first matchup. vs the Saints this year, finishing with 43 scrimmage yards on 11 touches. We'd expect better production than that this time around, but wouldn't anticipate a monster game. Despite the poor matchup, Fournette should still be viewed as a strong RB1 play this week given his recent production.
Week 14 @ Buffalo Bills
Leonard Fournette has been one of the most surprising fantasy players so far this year. Not so much for his work on the ground, but for his work as a receiver. Last week he finished 7-48-1 on eight targets, giving him four straight games with at least six receptions. Heading into this week, Fournette leads all running backs in receptions (58). He also crossed the 1,000-yard scrimmage mark on the season. He's become a true RB1 as the lead back in a high-powered offense. He gets an OK matchup this week against the Bills. Fournette's receiving stats could take a hit as Buffalo has been tough on receiving backs this year, giving up the third-fewest (tied) receptions and fifth-fewest receiving yards to the position. But we wouldn't be worried too much about the matchup given Fournette's recent production. He should be viewed as a strong RB1 play in Week 14.
