Fantasy Upside
With Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen both departing in free agency, we project Blount to be the biggest beneficiary. There may be some uncertainty here, but the opportunity is ripe for a RB who has had proven success in the Patriots backfield.
Fantasy Downside
HC Bill Belichick is infamous for shuffling running back around in a way that constantly frustrates fantasy owners. We believe Blount is the surest bet, but who knows what could happen from week-to-week. Jonas Gray still lingers in the wings and there have been some underwhelming preseason reports about Blount.
Bottom Line
We like Blount a lot at his ADP in the mid-sixth round or mid-seventh round of 10-team leagues. However, we do suggest owners draft him with their eyes open. There may be some week-to-week frustration, but at the same time, there aren't other RB2 options available so late in your drafts.
Week 20 vs Colts
Last week the Patriots RB game-planned to abandon the run nearly entirely, and focus on attacking the Ravens weak secondary, rather than their strong defensive front. For the purposes of this week, we can somewhat ignore Blount's horrifying three carry for one yard effort from last week. In all, the Patriots only had a 7-14 line on the ground, from RBs. Facing off against against a plus aFPA rushing matchup this weekend, we can reasonably expect the RBs to be more involved. We expect Blount to lead the charge on the ground, as he has nearly every week since he signed, mid-season. He may be a bit of a volatile player this weekend, but he does have the best rushing matchup of any starting RB. We have him as a fringe "RB1."
Week 19 vs Ravens
Since signing with the Patriots in Week 12, Blount has averaged 12 carries a game, putting up a respectable 4.68 YPC. This weekend, he faces off against a rather stout defensive front, who has allowed the third fewest aFPA to opposing RBs. We project him to score the most out of the NEP in standard scoring leagues, but we're generally down on all NEP backs this weekend.
Week 16 at Jets
Blount put put an 8-17-1 line in Week 15, adding 2-7 in the air. Ineffective on the ground, he ceded some work to fellow RB Jonas Grey as the game progressed. HC Bill Belichick's shuffling of RBs, as well as the very tough matchup against the Jets, who offer the fourth least aFPA to RBs, are both causes for concern. In Week 16, Blount will be a touchdon dependent boom/bust play, as he has been many other weeks. We have him ranked as a low-end RB3 or RB4, depending on your league size. In PPR, we have him as a mid-low end RB4. Owners looking for a championship hopefully have better options.
Week 15 vs Miami
Blount rushed 20 times in Week 14, for 66 yards. It's promising he added 2-11 in the passing game, as well. In the three games since joining the Patriots, Blount has led the team in rushing attempts and yards each game. His main backfield partner, Shane Vereen, has had only eight touches in the last two games. With the Patriots 7.5 favorites playing at home, we rank Blount as a low-end RB2 this week. He's been offering a reasonable (if slightly low) floor, and the chance to hit his upside this week figures to be higher than usual. In PPR, he gets a small bump down into high-mid range RB3 conversation.
Week 14 at Chargers
In Week 13 Blount rushed for a very nice 5.8 ypc. However, his fantasy owners who started him were probably disappointed with his 10-58-0 line. In his first two weeks in New England, Blount is a combined 22-136-2 for over 6 ypc. Those are some great real football numbers, but his fake football numbers are very dependent upon goal line opportunities and game flow.
He's a bit of a risk in a tough matchup this week, but makes for his usual boom/bust play regardless. We rank him him as RB28 and RB33 in PPR.
Week 13 at Green Bay
Blount exploded back onto the Patriots scene in Week 12, rushing for a 12-78-2 line in a tough matchup. The lead-rushing back role with the Patriots tend be a bit of a boom/bust play, and Blount has Jonas Gray to contend with for usage.
We rank Blount in the RB3/4 range in standard, and as a RB4 in PPR. He makes a reasonable play in deep leagues, or by desperate owners, but will be reasonably boom/bust in a high-scoring affair this weekend. It's entirely possible Gray gets more touches this week.
LeGarrette Blount Week 11 vs. Titans
LeGarrette Blount got five carries for 0 yards last week at New York, though one of his carries was an 8-yard loss on the goal line. He's going to continue to get some goal line carries and Tennessee has allowed 10 rushing TDs. So there's a chance he gets into the end zone this week. Outside of that and as a Bell handcuff, however, he doesn't have a ton of value.
LeGarrette Blount Week 10 vs. Jets
LeGarrette Blount matched his season-high with 10 carries last week, but only had 23 yards rushing. He'll get a similar amount of carries from here on out as the Steelers try to ease LeVeon Bell's workload some - at least as a runner. But Blount doesn't have a strong matchup this week.
LeGarrette Blount Week 9 vs. Ravens
LeGarrette Blount has been right around eight touches per game over the past month and that's unlikely to change, despite his fumble last week against Indianapolis. He's getting some red zone touches, as well, so there's a chance of a vulture TD. But Baltimore has allowed just three rushing TDs by running backs this season.
