Week 6 vs. Cincinnati
LeGarrette Blount had an 18-carry, 37-yard performance in a 33-13 win against the Browns last week, but he did punch in a touchdown playing just 39 percent of the offensive snaps (after averaging 62.4 through the first four weeks). Blount comes into Week 5 averaging 21.2 rush attempts for 77.8 rushing yards and one rush TDs per game so far this season. The Patriots are heavy home favorite against the Bengals, who are near the middle of the pack in RB aFPA. Blount has received 62.69 percent percent of New England’s carries in the past four games, and while the Patriots will continue to take to the air more often with Tom Brady back, but Blount could see some more looks in scoring position as a result. Blount who will be a high-end RB2 against the Bengals this week.
LeGarrette Blount had a 13-carry, 54-yard performance in a 0-16 shutout loss against the Bills playing 54% of the snaps. Blount comes into Week 5 averaging 22 rush attempts, for 88 rushing yards and 1 rush TDs per game so far this season. He is heavy road favorite against the Browns, who are between the bottoms and the middle of the pack in RB aFPA. Blount has received 67.69% percent of New England’s carries so far this season and this is clearly his backfield until Dion Lewis returns. The Patriots finally get Tom Brady back this week and the Patriots will take to the air again more often going forward. Blount who will be a low end RB2 against the Browns.
Week 4 vs. Buffalo
LeGarrette Blount had a 24-carry, 105-yard, two touchdown performance in a 27-0 win over the Texans playing 71% of the snaps. Blount comes into Week 4 averaging 13.8 rush attempts, for 58.6 rushing yards and 0.5 rush TDs per game. He received 48.5 percent of New England’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015, and this is clearly his backfield until Dion Lewis returns. The Patriots will be without starting QB Tom Brady (suspension) for one more week, so the Patriots could continue to lean heavily on Blount (who will be a low-end RB2 against the Bills who rank near the top of the league in QB aFPA).
Week 3 vs. Houston
LeGarrette Blount had a 29-carry, 123-yard performance in a 31-24 win over the Dolphins, playing 64 percent of the snaps last week. He also scored his 25th touchdown in 32 career games as a Patriot. The Patriots are slight home underdogs against the Texans, who are near the middle of the pack in RB aFPA. Blount received 48.5 percent of New England’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015, and this is clearly his backfield until Dion Lewis returns. The Patriots will be without starting QB Tom Brady (suspension) again this week, as well as Jimmy Garoppolo (injured), so the Patriots could continue to lean heavily on Blount (who will be a low end RB2 against the Texans).
Week 2 vs. Miami
LeGarrette Blount had a 22-carry, 70-yard performance in a 23-21 win over the Cardinals playing 59% of the snaps, and while he lost a fumble, he did score his 24th touchdown in 31 career games as a Patriot. Blount comes into Week 2 averaging 13.8 rush attempts, for 58.6 rushing yards and 0.5 rush TDs per game last season. He is a heavy home favorite against the Dolphins, who are near the bottom of the league in RB aFPA. Blount received 48.5 percent of New England’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015, and this is clearly his backfield until Dion Lewis returns. The Patriots will be without starting QB Tom Brady (suspension) again this week, so the Patriots could lean on Blount once they get a lead. Blount will be a RB3 against the Dolphins.
Week 1 at Arizona
LaGarrette Blount has scored 23 touchdowns in 30 career games as a Patriot. Blount comes into Week 1 averaging 13.8 rush attempts, for 58.6 rushing yards and 0.5 rush TDs per game last season. He is a road underdog against the Cardinals, who are near the bottom of the league in RB aFPA. Blount received 48.5 percent of New England’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015. The Patriots will be without starting QB Tom Brady (suspension), but the Patriots could lean on Blount if the game stays close. Blount will be a RB3 against the Cardinals.
Fantasy Upside
The Patriots backfield is largely comprised of pass catching specialists and the Patriots have shown game plans in the past that suits LeGarrette Blount’s rugged style. He has 23 touchdowns in 30 career games as a Patriot and has a clear path to an early down role in one of the league’s best offenses.
Fantasy Downside
Dion Lewis has more touchdown upside than people think and is efficient between the tackles in his own right. Blount is recovering from a hip injury that ended his 2015 season but it is relevant that the Patriots are not paying him in a way in which he feels irreplaceable. His margin for error is low, as the coaches have expressed the need for more consistency out of him.
2016 Bottom Line
He has a ton of upside in best ball formats but week-to-week in redraft he could be a frustrating player to own. His price in double-digit rounds could prove to be a discount if he retains the “big back” carries in this offense. He could be leaned on heavily during Tom Brady’s suspension.
Week 14 at Houston
With the passing game working so well last week, and with game flow not asking for a game closer, LaGarrette Blount fielded only 29 percent of the snaps, rushing for a 13-54 line. While his usage has been somewhat consistent this year, the injuries to the team and some tough matchups have not been friendly to Blount's fantasy production of late, now with only 22 touches in the last two weeks. He also hasn't scored in the last three weeks, which hurts his value.
This weekend, Blount faces a Houston team more susceptible to the run (25th aFPA to RBs) than the pass (top 10 in aFPA to both QBs and WRs). He figures to get his usual 13-20 touches, but unless he gets the higher end of that range and some goal-line work, owners may again be left wishing for more. We have him as a weak RB2 to solid RB3 depending on your league size and scoring.
Week 13 vs Philadelphia
LaGarrette Blount had a down week in Week 13, putting up 27 yards on only nine touches. This was his lowest touch total since Week 7 against the a stout Jets front. Though Blount has been pretty consistent this season, we often note him as a boom/bust candidate, so this one down week isn't too much cause for concern.
This weekend Blount looks to get back into normal form and usage against the Eagles who are the 22nd ranked aFPA matchup to opposing RBs. Another boom/bust candidate as always, we have Blount ranked as a solid RB2, with his usual PPR downgrade into the low end RB2 / high-end RB3 conversation.
Week 12 at Denver
LaGarrette Blount saw his typical usage and snap share in Week 11 with 55 percent of the snaps and 17 touches. His usual consistent performance dipped slightly, though, as he put up a season-low 56 yards. His return to action (in Week 2) and the Jets game (predictably) aside, Blount has rushed for over 70 yards in every other game. Of those seven games, Blount has seen 17-21 touches in five. (He saw 13 touches against Dallas in Week 5, and 29 touches in Week 9 after Dion Lewis was injured.) He seems to have a very consistent and clear role in this offense.
This weekend he figures to get similar usage against a middling aFPA matchup. Missing some key offensive components, though, in a tough matchup on the road, the Patriots offense may not fire the same sparks we saw earlier in the year. Depending on your league size, we have Blount as a fringe RB to solid RB3 in standard, or a solid RB3 in PPR this weekend.
