Week 6 at Carolina Panthers
Even with Darren Sproles on IR, and even with Wendell Smallwood out last week, LeGarrette Blount STILL couldn't crack the 40% snaps barrier. He's yet to do it this season, and that simply will continue to limit his upside for a player that has a track record of being inefficient and relying on touchdowns for big weeks. He also has not caught more than one pass in any game this season. Consider him a FLEX option in Week 6 on Thursday night against a Panthers defense ranked in the top 10 of our aFPA vs. RBs.
Week 5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
In his first game without Darren Sproles, Blount saw 17 touches despite only playing 33% of the snaps. That raises some concern Blount may need more games where the Eagles are playing in front to get that kind of volume. However, for Week 5 against a Cardinals defense ranked 12th in our aFPA vs. PPR RBs, Blount is a solid FLEX option in PPR and a low-end RB2 in standard leagues.
Week 4 at Los Angeles Chargers
With Darren Sproles out for the year, the rest of the Eagles backfield should see increased snaps. The Chargers are also top-10 against fantasy RBs in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. Blount is still going to always be a better standard league option. The concern is even after Sproles got hurt last week, Blount only played 29% of snaps. Consider Blount a touchdown-or-bust proposition in your lineup decisions for Week 4.
Week 3 vs. New York Giants
LeGarrette Blount turned into a nightmare for fantasy owners last week, only playing 8% of snaps (third among Eagles RBs). It appears the Eagles backfield game plan may shift from week-to-week. Therefore, Blount is too risky to put into your lineups.
Week 2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Blount scored on a receiving touchdown last week. Yes...a receiving touchdown, just the second of his career. Don't count on that happening much the rest of the season, if at all. His 15 touches were encouraging, but like last season, he still cannot get back to the 4.0 yards-per-carry plateau. His 46 yards on 14 attempts equaled 3.29 yards per carry. If not for the anomaly of the touchdown catch, his fantasy day would have been sunk. The Chiefs present a top-10 challenge in our aFPA vs. PPR RBs. Blount is a touchdown-or-bust bet again in your FLEX considerations.
Week 1 at Washington
We do not know how much volume LeGarrette Blount will get on a weekly basis in his new offense. The Week 1 matchup is good, though, as he faces a Washington team that was bad against PPR running backs last season (28th in PPR points allowed to the position). This is likely a touchdown or bust proposition, though. Hopefully, you drafted more reliable running backs early and can stash Blount to see how the touches play out. This is shaping up to be a committee backfield all season. FWIW, Ryan Mathews did not rush for a score in two games against Washington last year for Philadelphia.
Fantasy Upside
Blount probably won't come close to his 18 rushing touchdowns from a year ago, but he does enter a backfield situation that saw a below average Ryan Mathews score eight times. Most fantasy managers will take that from their mid-round RB draft selection.
Fantasy Downside
Blount goes from getting 60% of backfield touches in New England to a situation where Mathews saw less than 50%. Plus, Blount only averaged 3.80 yards per carry last season and just 3.29 yards per cayy over his final eight games. If Blount gets all of Mathews’ carries and plays a full season, he should see 185-195 carries, but he provides little value in PPR leagues, as he has never served as a great pass-catcher (his career-high in targets and receptions is 25 and 15, respectively). Plus, Darren Sproles is still around in Philly.
2017 Bottom Line
Blount's almost assured touchdown regression is actually baked-in to his ADP at this point. He is, on average, the 32nd RB off the board at the top of the eighth round. Wendell Smallwood is reportedly going to be in the mix, though, in this backfield, potentially making it a three-headed monster. Blount is probably best suited for best-ball leagues, given this backfield situation. He will be hard to predict on a weekly basis.
Super Bowl vs. Atlanta
LeGarrette Blount had 16-carries for 47-yards and a touchdown, paired with one catch for eight yards on one target in a 36-17 win against the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. Blount is a risky option without guaranteed volume, but he has as much touchdown equity as any running back in the Super Bowl. While he led the league in red-zone carries and finished second in total touchdowns, Blount is a TD- and game-flow dependent power runner who needs clock-killing time to be effective. Atlanta ranks 26th at defending RBs out of the backfield per DVOA, and are an above average matchup overall in regards to RB aFPA
AFC Championship vs. Pittsburgh
LeGarrette Blount had an eight-carry, 31-yard performance in a 34-16 win against the Texans in the Division Round. Blount is a risky option without guaranteed volume — but he has as much touchdown equity as any running back on the slate. It was Blount who led the league in red-zone carries and finished second in total touchdowns, but he is a TD- and game-flow dependent power runner who needs clock-killing time to be effective. That said, he has by far the most opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games (15) of any other running back on the slate. Pittsburgh ranks 19th at defending RBs out of the backfield per DVOA, but are one of the worst matchups overall in regards to RB aFPA.
Divisional Round vs Houston
LeGarrette Blount had a 14-carry, 51 yard performance with a touchdown in a 35-14 win against the Dolphins in Week 17. Blount is a risky option without guaranteed volume, but he has as much touchdown equity as any running back on the slate. Naturally the massive spread (-15.5) in this game could favor the run game. He led the league in red zone carries and finished second in total touchdowns. Blount always has a good chance to score a TD and has (by far) the most opportunities inside the ten-yard line over the last four games of any other running back on the slate with 16. As good as the Texans defense is, it’s been average on the ground. Houston ranks 28th at defending RBs out of the backfield per DVOA and as one of the best matchups overall in regards to RB aFPA.
