Fantasy Upside
Ezekiel Elliott has been an elite fantasy producer since entering the league in 2016 and it's hard to envision that changing in 2020, even with a new head coach in town. Elliott should return as the feature back for a Dallas offense that is poised to explode this season. The Cowboys showed the willingness to use Elliott as a workhorse back even after drafting talented backup Tony Pollard last year. Elliott finished 2019 ranked first among running backs in red-zone touches, second in carries, fifth in snap share, and ninth in targets. He turned that workload into a fifth-place finish in fantasy points at the position by amassing the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most touchdowns of any running back. While that usage might be enough to satisfy those considering using a top pick on Elliott by itself, there is reason to think he could achieve an even higher finish this season. Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore is set to maintain playcalling duties so we can have some confidence Elliott’s role should not change drastically, plus the Dallas offense has an even higher ceiling this season with Dak Prescott continuing to improve and Ceedee Lamb added to the passing game. Elliott has one of the safest floors in all of fantasy due to his extensive usage in a high-scoring offense and drafters should feel confident using a high pick on him in 2020.
Fantasy Downside
Concerns with Elliott’s fantasy projection are hard to come by, but it's possible that the Cowboys experience regression this season and his individual production would almost certainly suffer as a result. Another concern is Tony Pollard taking on a larger role in his second season. Pollard impressed in limited snaps last season, and it is possible the new coaching staff gives him more touches in 2020. Given that the Cowboys played at one of the fastest paces in the league in 2019, any additional touches for Pollard would likely come out of Elliott’s total.
2020 Bottom Line
Elliott projects to carry a massive workload for one of the best offenses in the league. He should finish among the league leaders in carries again this year, and he gets enough looks in the passing game to maintain an elite floor. His attachment to the Cowboys’ offense means he should see a ton of red zone and goal line touches. Elliott is once again an elite RB1 and has an argument to be picked as high as second overall.
Week 17 vs Washington
The Cowboys are facing criticism again for the lack of carries for Ezekiel Elliot last week against Philly. He ended up with only 13 carries, but because he had seven catches, he did end up with 20 touches. Total yardage was 87 and zero touchdowns.
Elliot faces the Redskins who are ranked 29th in aFPA to running backs. He rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with Washington back in Week 2 and has had success against them during his career.
It seems every time Dallas is criticized for not getting Elliot enough, they feed him even more. Expect a huge game for him as the Cowboys have to win to still have a chance for the playoffs. Elliot ranks the highest fantasy running back for Week 17.
Week 16 at Philadelphia
Ezekiel Elliot eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the first time since Week 9 and put up 160 total yards from scrimmage. He also had two touchdowns. It's safe to say that Zeke helped many fantasy owners advance to the next round of their playoffs. With the division on the line, we expect his workload to remain 20+ touches per game.
Elliot will face the Eagles who are 14th in aFPA to running backs. When the teams met the first time this season, he rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown. We expect similar results this time around.
Start Elliot as an RB1 in all leagues and formats. The Cowboys won't hold him back and Elliot produces most of the time when that happens.
Week 15 vs Los Angeles Rams
Ezekiel Elliot continues to be a fantasy stud. He eclipsed 20 touches again and rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns. The good news is the Elliot has been the focus of the Cowboys offensive game plans even with Dallas struggling to win games.
Elliot has a tougher matchup this week against the Rams who are 9th in aFPA to running backs. Los Angeles will try to key on him so even though he will get his touches, we don't expect the numbers to be overwhelming.
Start Elliot for Week 15 in all leagues and formats as an RB1. He isn't one of the top plays this week at the position, but will still put up good numbers.
Week 14 at Chicago
Ezekiel Elliot had another solid game with 19 touches for 137 yards. The running game was limited to 12 carries, but Elliot made up for it with seven receptions. He was held out of the end zone for the fourth time in five games.
The Bears defense has been good but vulnerable against the run. They are ranked 23rd in aFPA to running backs. Elliot will need to get more carries to assure he gets the fantasy numbers we expect.
We think he will be back over 20 touches this week and is ranked as a top 5 fantasy running back for Week 14. Start him in all leagues and formats.
Week 13 vs Buffalo
Ezekiel Elliot had 25 touches for 126 total yards but did not score a touchdown. This is why Elliot remains one of the safest fantasy options in the NFL. Even when he didn't have his best game, it was still a pretty good one.
Elliot will face Buffalo who is 22nd in aFPA to running backs. With a favorable matchup in front of a national audience, we expect a big day for him.
Start Elliot in all leagues and formats for Week 13. Even if this game leans towards a defensive battle, Elliot will get his touches and yardage.
Week 12 vs New England
Ezekiel Elliot had some of his lower fantasy numbers of the season last week although he did score his seventh rushing touchdown of the year. The negative was the touches as he was under 20 for the first time since Week 5 and only the third time all season. The Cowboys won last week, but Elliot wasn't the main factor like he is usually.
That could change this week as the Cowboys face New England. The Patriots are ranked fifth in aFPA to running backs but are even better against the pass. We expect Elliot to get back to the 20+ touch mark this week.
Elliot's ranking for this week drops from his usual spot in the top 5 running backs because of the Patriots overall defense, but he still ranks as solid RB1 for Week 12 and should be in your starting lineup in all leagues and formats.
Week 11 at Detroit
Just give Minnesota credit. They held Ezekiel Elliot in check last Sunday night. He still got 22 touches but for only 63 yards which is actually not a bad day for an NFL running back, but below what we are used to with Elliot. That yardage total tied his Week 1 numbers in a game where he was held back because he had skipped training camp.
Elliot should fare better this Sunday against the Lions who are 28th in aFPA to running backs. Detroit has not been good on the defensive side of the ball and as long as Elliot gets his 20+ touches (which he has for four straight games), we expect a big game for him.
Start Elliot as a top-five fantasy running backs in all leagues and formats for Week 11. It should be a very big bounce-back game for the Cowboys running game.
Week 10 vs Minnesota
Make it three straight 100+ rushing yard games for Ezekiel Elliot. The Cowboys running back is playing his best football and as long as Dallas keeps feeding him, he will continue to put up good numbers. Last week, he didn't have a touchdown or catch any passes, but still had a top 5 running back performance in standard leagues.
Elliot will face a tough Minnesota defense who is ranked seventh in aFPA to running backs. We have said this in the past about Elliot. It doesn't really matter who he plays. He can get the fantasy numbers against anyone.
Start Elliot in all leagues and formats as a top-five running back once again. The Vikings might keep him from going off, but he still will get enough points to make a major impact.
Week 9 at New York Giants
Ezekiel Elliot had 28 touches last week and rushed for 100+ yards for the second straight game and fourth time this season. He also scored his sixth touchdown of the season which was his fourth game in a row getting into the end zone.
Elliot will face the Giants who are 22nd in aFPA to running backs. He only had 14 touches in the first meeting of the season and ran for 53 yards. Historically, Elliot has played good and bad games against New York. He is averaging 78 rushing yards per game against the Giants.
Start Elliot in all leagues and formats as a top-five fantasy running back and expect a high-scoring game in which he is one the stars for the Cowboys.
