Fantasy Upside
Like the majority of the Cowboys' offense, Ezekiel Elliott is happy to see Dak Prescott back under center. Prior to Dak’s Week 5 season-ending injury, Elliott was seeing a minimum of 20 touches per game and collected 120-plus total yards in three of four contests. Zeke also saw at least six targets in three of five games Dak started and was on the field no fewer than 76.8% of Dallas’ offensive snaps. The 26-year old remains a dual-threat on offense and will have success behind a healthy offensive line and with a quadrant of receiving options keeping opposing defenses honest.
Fantasy Downside
His touch and yardage total changed with Andy Dalton and Ben DiNucci under center. And as much as it is easy to say injuries happen, another injury to Prescott would result in a shock to the Cowboys' offense. Elliott has also seen his yard per carry drop in three consecutive seasons. While YPC is not a dependable statistic year-over-year, it is a concern to see a mid-20's feature back declining. Zeke will also lose rushing and receiving downs to backup Tony Pollard. Elliott did not play Week 15 and Pollard took advantage, collecting 18 total touches with six coming through the air. Pollard’s nine targets in Week 15 were the third-most by a Cowboys running back in 2020. Pollard averaged 0.30 more yards per carry despite the same quarterback and offensive line issues. Elliott saw 143 more rushing attempts than Pollard last season, a concern for 2021. A lot of this would be solved by an improved Cowboys defense. Dallas’ strength of schedule is concerning as well. The Cowboys' offense as a whole has four games against top-five defenses according to 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. They also have one more against a top 10 unit. Zeke has seven games against top 10 rushing units.
2021 Bottom Line
The return of Dak Prescott and the majority of the Cowboys starting offensive line provides hope for Elliott, but a difficult schedule, elite passing options, and one of the best handcuff running backs in fantasy lurk as caps to his ceiling. Zeke projects as an RB1 with the upside to be one of, if not the top fantasy running back in 2021.
Week 17 vs. New York Giants
Ezekiel Elliott was questionable heading into last week but ultimately played and posted 19-105 rushing line with four receptions for 34 yards. While Tony Pollard looked great in Week 15, Elliott dominated the running back touches last week and will likely do so again this week against the Giants. The Cowboys are still clinging to playoff hopes so there shouldn’t be any concern about Elliott’s workload heading into the finale, and he should be able to muster enough production on his touches to return RB2 value. So long as Elliott is healthy and in the lineup, his usage still commands respect in fantasy, including in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Zeke is currently listed as questionable to play Sunday against Philadelphia. If he suits up, both he and Tony Pollard would be difficult to trust as starters in fantasy due to the split workload and the possibility that Elliott is limited by his calf injury. It looks like we won't' know Zeke's status until the Cowboys release their inactives list Sunday so keep an eye on the news to determine his status for Week 16.
Week 15 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Ezekiel Elliott will face off with a 49ers defense that has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Additional concerns come with Elliott's reduced usage of late as game script and an increased snap percentage for Tony Pollard have cut into Elliott's workload to some extent. Elliott is not seeing enough volume in the passing game to counter his reduced rushing workload, and opposing running backs have had to rely on touchdowns to turn in decent fantasy performances against San Francisco. Shockingly, Elliott has not scored a rushing touchdown since Week 5, showing that there is real risk in starting him this week. Even so, Elliott is not someone who can be benched as he should get the majority of the carries regardless of the other concerns about his production. Elliott is on the RB2/RB3 borderline in Week 15.
Week 14 at Cincinnati Bengals
Ezekiel Elliott has not recorded a rushing touchdown since Week 5, but his workload has remained consistent and Andy Dalton's slightly improved play has provided some hope for salvaging the fantasy seasons of the Dallas skill players. Elliott is coming off 95 yards from scrimmage in a tough matchup against Baltimore. Week 14 brings a matchup with the atrocious Bengals rush defense, meaning Elliott should have a healthy floor and a good chance to hit his ceiling this week. The Bengals concede over 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and have given up 100+ yards rushing to the Giants, Dolphins, and Washington in the last three weeks. Fire up Elliott as an RB1 in Week 14.
Week 13 at Baltimore Ravens
Ezekiel Elliott is surviving off pure volume as the workhorse in a struggling Dallas offense. Elliott's efficiency has plummeted since Dak Prescott's injury. He has rushed for 100 yards once this season and has one touchdown in his last six games. Now Elliott has to travel to Baltimore to take on a stout Raven defense. The Ravens are 10th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and would likely be better if they had not suffered recent injuries on the defensive line. Elliott is startable because he is guaranteed a substantial workload, but he is an unexciting RB2 these days.
Week 12 vs. Washington Football Team
Ezekiel Elliott had his best game in a month in Week 11 by finally eclipsing the 100 rushing yard threshold for the first time this season and adding a receiving touchdown to boot. Despite the Cowboys' well-documented offensive struggles since losing Dak Prescott, Elliott continues to be fed a bellcow workload even when faced with neutral or negative game scripts. Elliott has exactly one game with fewer than 20 touches this season, a workload that makes him a starting-caliber fantasy asset regardless of matchup or offensive situation. With all that being said, Elliott will get a more difficult test on Thursday when he faces off with Washington's tough front seven. Elliott's pervasive involvement in the Dallas offense means you're starting him no matter the opponent, but expectations should be tempered this week.
Week 11 at Minnesota Vikings
Ezekiel Elliott's fantasy season can officially be considered a disappointment, though how much of that is Elliott's fault is up for debate. The Cowboys have been reeling since they lost Dak Prescott and multiple starters on the offensive line to injuries. Elliott hasn't scored a touchdown in four games and his efficiency has hit an all-time low working with backups all over the offense. The Vikings defense has generally been bad this year, but they are better against the run than the pass, meaning Elliott has the toughest matchup of any of the fantasy-relevant Cowboys this week. Elliott should still be started simply because he is guaranteed solid volume on a weekly basis, but his floor and ceiling are nowhere near where they were in the early part of the season.
Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ezekiel Elliott's status as a surefire RB1 is long gone is the midst of a lost season for the Cowboys. Elliott hasn't scored a touchdown in his last three games and has only totaled 204 yards from scrimmage over that span. The Cowboys will throw either Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush to the wolves on Sunday when they take on the vicious Pittsburgh defense, which is bad news for Elliott. The depleted state of Dallas's offensive line and quarterback room means Elliott is at risk for a dud every week if the Cowboys cannot move the ball. He should still be started just based on volume, but Elliott is not the same fantasy asset drafters paid up for before the season.
Week 8 at Philadelphia Eagles
Ezekiel Elliott was once among the most bankable assets in all of fantasy, but his outlook has taken a turn for the worse following Dak Prescott's season-ending injury and now Andy Dalton's concussion. The Cowboys' offensive production has dropped off dramatically without Prescott under center, and Elliott is feeling the effects as he has finished as an RB3 or worse two straight weeks. Now Elliott will face off with the tough Philadelphia run defense in a matchup that could spell disaster for Dallas on offense. Elliott still needs to be started due to his central role in the offense and guaranteed usage, but he is no longer the elite RB1 he used to be.
