Week 7 at Washington Football Team
Ezekiel Elliott will be the focal point of the Cowboys offense with Dak Prescott sidelined, but his fumbling issues are becoming a concern along with the general ineptitude of Andy Dalton in Week 6. Elliott's fantasy profile is saved by his extensive usage in the passing game (Zeke is averaging seven targets per game in 2020), but his ceiling has been lowered significantly with the loss of Prescott and the massive efficiency hit the offense has taken as a result. Washington is not an overly concerning matchup for Elliott, and his volume means he is still an RB1, but his touchdown upside has taken a significant hit and he will carry more risk than ever before based on his current offensive environment.
Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals
It's hard to imagine Ezekiel Elliott taking on an even larger workload, but with Dak Prescott going down for the season, Elliott will be more important than ever for the Cowboys as they handle the fallout of losing their franchise quarterback for the season. The entire Cowboys offense will suffer from losing Prescott, but Andy Dalton is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and should be able to keep the offense afloat alongside Elliott. Elliott could even offset a hit in touchdown opportunities with additional volume if Dallas leans more on the running game with Dalton under center. Losing Prescott does present some concerns for Elliott's fantasy profile, particularly if Dalton looks Elliott's way less in the passing game. Prescott gave Elliott 32 targets over five games, which made Elliott immune to game script concerns even as the Dallas defense gave up tons of points. Dalton's effect on the Dallas offense will be one of the biggest storylines of Week 6, but Elliott should still be able to muster RB1 production without his starting quarterback.
Week 5 vs. New York Giants
Ezekiel Elliott has only totaled 88 rushing yards over the last two weeks, but has shown off his insane floor with 19 targets and 14 catches in that same span. All of that adds up Elliott still averaging over 22 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, placing him among the top five running backs in fantasy. Elliott's rushing production is suffering from a putrid Dallas defense that hemorrhages points to opposing offenses, leading Dallas to abandon the run in catch-up mode. That being said, Elliott is one of the rare fantasy assets that is completely immune to matchup and game script concerns. His massive workload means that even in inefficient games he will turn in a decent fantasy performance. Continue to start Elliott as an elite RB1.
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Ezekiel Elliott turned in a thoroughly disappointing rushing performance in Week 3 against the Seahawks where he only managed 34 yards on 14 carries. He salvaged his day with six receptions and a touchdown, showing that he still has one of the highest floors in all of fantasy even on a day when he could not find any space on the ground. Elliott should bounce back this week taking on the middling Browns run defense as a home favorite. Matchups hardly matter for Elliott, particularly in PPR leagues as he has posted 15 receptions through three games. Zeke is a RB1 again in Week 4.
Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks
Ezekiel Elliott has thus far evaded the injury plague and as a result is arguably the most valuable asset in all of fantasy right now. He is as safe a bet there is in the NFL for 20 touches in a given week, and Dallas continues to give him enough looks in the passing game to grant him elite RB1 status. Elliott will be a strong RB1 again in Week 3 against a weak Seattle defense in what should be a shootout. Elliott has cleared 120 yards from scrimmage in both games this season and should have little trouble doing so again in Seattle. The Seahawks defense has already surrendered big days to the Falcons and a Patriots team whose weapons pale in comparison to what Dallas will throw at the Seahawks Sunday. The projected pace of Sunday's game means Zeke should see plenty of volume yet again and the matchup suggests he will do plenty with those touches. Don't overthink this. Start Zeke every week as a RB1.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Ezekiel Elliott posted a classic Zeke performance in Week 1 by gaining 96 rushing yards on 22 carries, adding 31 receiving yards on three receptions, and scoring two total touchdowns. Zeke looked as good as ever as he ran over the Rams defense with vision and power. He also remained a solid part of the passing game where he attracted four targets and converted a screen pass into a touchdown. This week Zeke gets a Falcons defense that the Seahawks stomped in Week 1, so he should have no problem feasting for another huge fantasy performance. It is worth noting that the Falcons allowed Seahawks RB Chris Carson, not normally a receiving back, to catch two touchdowns last week. Elliott is a surefire RB1 in Week 2 and arguably the top running back play in the league.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Ezekiel Elliott will take on the Rams Sunday night in what is projected to be a high-scoring season opener for two of the fastest-paced offenses in the NFL. The Rams were a decent run defense last season, but Zeke is among the safest bets in the entire league to clear 20 touches in Week 1 given his massive workload and the shootout potential this game presents. Even with Dak Prescott ascending as a passer, Elliott posted 111 scrimmage yards per game last season. Lock Elliott into lineups as a strong RB1 play and watch him go to work Sunday night.
Fantasy Upside
Ezekiel Elliott has been an elite fantasy producer since entering the league in 2016 and it's hard to envision that changing in 2020, even with a new head coach in town. Elliott should return as the feature back for a Dallas offense that is poised to explode this season. The Cowboys showed the willingness to use Elliott as a workhorse back even after drafting talented backup Tony Pollard last year. Elliott finished 2019 ranked first among running backs in red-zone touches, second in carries, fifth in snap share, and ninth in targets. He turned that workload into a fifth-place finish in fantasy points at the position by amassing the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most touchdowns of any running back. While that usage might be enough to satisfy those considering using a top pick on Elliott by itself, there is reason to think he could achieve an even higher finish this season. Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore is set to maintain playcalling duties so we can have some confidence Elliott’s role should not change drastically, plus the Dallas offense has an even higher ceiling this season with Dak Prescott continuing to improve and Ceedee Lamb added to the passing game. Elliott has one of the safest floors in all of fantasy due to his extensive usage in a high-scoring offense and drafters should feel confident using a high pick on him in 2020.
Fantasy Downside
Concerns with Elliott’s fantasy projection are hard to come by, but it's possible that the Cowboys experience regression this season and his individual production would almost certainly suffer as a result. Another concern is Tony Pollard taking on a larger role in his second season. Pollard impressed in limited snaps last season, and it is possible the new coaching staff gives him more touches in 2020. Given that the Cowboys played at one of the fastest paces in the league in 2019, any additional touches for Pollard would likely come out of Elliott’s total.
2020 Bottom Line
Elliott projects to carry a massive workload for one of the best offenses in the league. He should finish among the league leaders in carries again this year, and he gets enough looks in the passing game to maintain an elite floor. His attachment to the Cowboys’ offense means he should see a ton of red zone and goal line touches. Elliott is once again an elite RB1 and has an argument to be picked as high as second overall.
Week 17 vs Washington
The Cowboys are facing criticism again for the lack of carries for Ezekiel Elliot last week against Philly. He ended up with only 13 carries, but because he had seven catches, he did end up with 20 touches. Total yardage was 87 and zero touchdowns.
Elliot faces the Redskins who are ranked 29th in aFPA to running backs. He rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with Washington back in Week 2 and has had success against them during his career.
It seems every time Dallas is criticized for not getting Elliot enough, they feed him even more. Expect a huge game for him as the Cowboys have to win to still have a chance for the playoffs. Elliot ranks the highest fantasy running back for Week 17.
Week 16 at Philadelphia
Ezekiel Elliot eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the first time since Week 9 and put up 160 total yards from scrimmage. He also had two touchdowns. It's safe to say that Zeke helped many fantasy owners advance to the next round of their playoffs. With the division on the line, we expect his workload to remain 20+ touches per game.
Elliot will face the Eagles who are 14th in aFPA to running backs. When the teams met the first time this season, he rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown. We expect similar results this time around.
Start Elliot as an RB1 in all leagues and formats. The Cowboys won't hold him back and Elliot produces most of the time when that happens.
