Week 11 at Kansas City Chiefs
Elliott has a tougher running matchup against the Chiefs this week, especially with DL Chris Jones lining up at defensive tackle once again for K.C. That said, the Chiefs are allowing 6.3 receptions per game to the running back position. As long as Zeke is not removed from the passing attack, his fantasy floor is relatively high against one of the worst overall defenses in football.
Week 10 vs Atlanta Falcons
The Dallas Cowboys disappointed Week 9, including Elliott. Good thing for him the Atlanta Falcons come to Jerry World. Their 29th-ranked run defense according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed should cure what ails the Cowboys’ lead back. Atlanta has not allowed a 100-yard rusher, but allow 142.13 total yards per game to run backs. Tony Pollard will get his workload too, but Elliott is in line for a strong day on the ground and through the air.
Week 9 versus Denver Broncos
Elliott put in a workman’s effort without Dak Prescott, totaling 73 yards on 20 touches. His matchup against the Denver Broncos is slightly easier, especially if Prescott is back. The Broncos’ 13th-ranked run defense according to aFPA and has only allowed two 100-yard rushers. Elliott cedes enough carries to Tony Pollard to keep that number a two, but without Von Miller, the Broncos' defense will be different. Elliott sits as an RB1 for Week 9.
Week 8 at Minnesota Vikings
The health of Vikings DT Michael Pierce (elbow) plays a role in how well Minnesota defends the run. Ezekiel Elliott has a chance to be the sixth running back to collect 50 rushing yards and a touchdown in seven contests. That total has been matched in four straight games, three of which Pierce has missed. Even if Zeke is limited on the ground, his usage in the passing game keeps his fantasy floor relatively high. His seven catches for 50 yards were season-highs and in a neutral game script. As long as the Cowboys are not getting their doors blown off, expect Elliott to see another week with 70% or more snaps played and an RB1-type performance.
Week 6 at Patriots
Volume is one way to help predicate success, and Ezekiel Elliott has been that with two 100-yard rushing performances in as many weeks. Zeke gets the New England Patriots, a bottom-10 rush defense according to aFPA. Elliott has not played on the road since Week 2, but that was also the first sign that his workload and subsequent production started their upward trajectory.
Week 5 vs Giants
Ezekiel Elliott single-handedly knocked the Panthers out of the top stop in aFPA against running backs with his 143-yard effort in Week 4. His matchup against the Giants is easier according to aFPA but New York has only allowed two 100-yard rushers and two rushing touchdowns in four games. What helps raise Zeke’s fantasy floor is New York’s willingness to allow backs to catch the ball. The Giants allow 6.5 receptions to backs on average and fellow RB Tony Pollard has seen his touches and snaps decrease each of the last three weeks.
Week 4 vs Carolina Panthers
For the third straight week, Ezekiel Elliott topped 70% of snaps played and the workload produced fantasy points. His reward Week 4 is the top-ranked Panthers rush defense according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA). The Panthers have allowed zero 25-yard rushers and only one team has touched 45 yards on the ground (Jets). Two successful NFL backs, Alvin Kamara and Phillip Lindsay, each rushed for five yards. Zeke has a tough hill to climb but once again his role in the passing game will keep his floor from hitting rock-bottom. Elliott is a borderline RB1 in half-point PPR formats according to 4for4’s Week 4 running back rankings.
Week 3 vs Eagles
If you were to take the names away from the stat sheet you would hope Ezekiel Elliott’s stat line would be the better of the two. Zeke is getting outplayed by Tony Pollard and that included negative and neutral game scripts. The Cowboys ran the ball 29 times in Week 2, 15 more times than Week 1. Elliott out-carried Pollard 16-11 but lost the yardage battle 109-71. Pollard also finished with one more catch than Zeke (3-2). The Eagles defense is top 10 against the running back position and has held every back with double-digit carries under 50 yards this season. Overall, running backs are averaging 3.71 yards per carry against Philly. With Jalen Hurts on track to torch a poor Cowboys defense, Elliott is going to have to step up and literally carry the offense with the idea of limiting Hurts’ time on the field.
Week 2 vs Chargers
It was apparent that Ezekiel Elliott was used as a pass blocker to help alleviate pressure on Dak Prescott Week 1 against Tampa Bay. Elliott did well with his role but it led to a disappointing fantasy performance. Washington allowed 107 rushing yards on 23 running back carries including 20-for-90 to Antonio Gibson. A similar performance from Zeke against the Chargers defense would go a long way to trusting Dallas’s lead back.
Week 1 vs. Buccaneers
We will get to see if Ezekiel Elliott is in the best shape of his life against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs defense enter 2021 ranked first in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Tampa is bringing back their front seven that includes a healthy Vita Vea and the Cowboys will be without guard Zack Martin (COVID-19).
What will continue to keep Elliott’s fantasy floor higher is his work in the passing game. In four complete games with Dak Prescott in 2020, Elliott saw 31 targets and 23 receptions. The Cowboys were trailing a lot in those games and that is very much on the table Thursday against Tampa Bay. It is realistic to think Week 1 is Zeke’s worst of the season and he still finishes as an RB2.
