Week 2 at New York Giants
Averaging 3.5 yards per carry, Ezekiel Elliott put up 53 yards on 15 attempts. He also added one reception for a four yard loss. Not the best game for Elliott, although 16 touches is serviceable.
The Giants just allowed Christian McCaffrey to run for over 100 yards so better days could be ahead for Elliott. With that said, you are most likely banking on a touchdown to make it worth it. Based on usage alone, I am okay with having Elliott slotted in as a low-end RB2.
Week 2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Putting up just 52 rushing yards on 10 carries last week against Tamp Bay, this slow start was anticipated. Ezekiel Elliott had a big task playing against this formidable run defense. With that said, his 5.2 yards per carry were the lone bright spot in this Dallas offense.
The Bengals defense put the clamps on Najee Harris and the Steelers running game last weekend, however, Dallas may not have a choice but to feed Zeke. Electing to take the ball out of Rush's hands, Elliott should see plenty of touches. Whether he does anything with those touches or not is another conversation. Start Elliott as a backend RB2 and hope he finds the endzone.
Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What many consider to be a declining running back in Ezekiel Elliott, I find to be a great value in fantasy football. Finishing last season as the RB6, the ironman will remain a focal point of this Dallas offense.
While Elliott should have another productive year, it may be a slow start in this week one matchup. Tampa Bay ranked third in rushing yards allowed and fifth in rushing touchdowns allowed last season. Scoring less than six fantasy points in his week one matchup against this same Tampa Bay team last year, temper expectations for Elliott this week.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Ezekiel Elliott is one of the most polarizing fantasy players entering the 2022 NFL season. Many see a running back workhorse that has averaged 1,231 rushing yards, 48 receptions, and 11.3 total touchdowns per year since entering the NFL. Critics will argue that Elliott’s rush attempts, receptions, and receiving yards have all dropped three years in a row. Owner Jerry Jones reiterated this week that the majority of running back touches will again go to Elliott, projecting him again as a Top 12 running back assuming health for the majority of the season. The fantasy upside is obvious for a three-down running back that has produced a Top-10 snap share in every year of his NFL career.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Elliott’s snap share did drop from second overall in 2020 to 10th overall last season. Backup Tony Pollard’s role continues to increase, with three straight seasons of an increase in rushing attempts, receptions, and receiving yards. There is little debate that Pollard is the more efficient running back, but will the Cowboys coaching staff alter their approach?
2022 Bottom Line
Ezekiel Elliott brings one of the safest fantasy running back floors this season. He is likely to maintain his role as the preferred goal line option while hovering around 45-50 receptions. Beyond the season, Elliott’s contract contains no guaranteed money, putting his future with the team in jeopardy. That should provide fantasy drafters comfort, knowing both sides have motivation to get the most out of Elliott’s production in 2022.
Week 17 versus Arizona Cardinals
Elliott took another backseat to Tony Pollard in terms of yardage, but found the end zone twice, including on his only catch of Week 16’s win. The Cardinals' defense enjoys allowing big plays to opposing backs, but Zeke’s breakaway days are behind him. He needs a big workload or red zone touches, something he could get against a depleted Cardinals defense this week.
Week 16 versus Washington Football Team
Aside from finding the end zone, Elliott had another mediocre performance. Running mate Tony Pollard returned Week 15 and continued to out-perform Elliott. His matchup against the WFT rush defense is not favorable (5th in RB aFPA) and Zeke falling into the end zone will more than likely be what saves his Week 16.
Week 15 at New York Giants
Elliott saw a reduced workload in Week 14 and it would not be surprising to see the same in Week 15 against the Giants. New York ranks 24th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing backs and is his easiest matchup since Thanksgiving, which is also the last time Zeke found the end zone. Elliott’s last 100-yard rushing game was against the Giants Week 5. Maybe, just maybe for one week, Elliott will see 20-plus carries and he performs like the Zeke we have since in the past.
Week 14 at Washington Football Team
Elliott failed to top 4.0 yards per carry for the fourth straight game Week 13, and the Tony Pollard whispers are only getting louder. Zeke continues to see work because he is useful in all facets of the offense, but his lingering knee issues continue to hurt his production. Elliott faces a WFT rush defense that has improved as the season has worn on and has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. The defense has allowed more passing touchdowns to backs than rushing. It could be another rough week if you roster Elliott and he is more likely to be an RB3 than an RB1.
Week 13 at New Orleans Saints
Will Zeke have his normal workload Week 13? If you have the answer clue us in. Elliott, despite constant talk about knee pain, has practiced in full leading up to Thursday night’s game. He has seen nine carries in each of the past two games for Dallas and has one game with respectable yards per carry since Dallas’ Week 7 bye (5.10 YPC Week 9). Tony Pollard continues to play well with and in place of Elliott and will continue to cut into his rushing and passing down work. Zeke will have his work cut out for him against the number two defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. If Elliott continues to average three yards per carry or fewer, expect him to be a spectator as much as a part of the offense.
Week 12 versus Las Vegas Raiders
Not having Tyron Smith on the offensive line hurt Ezekiel Elliott’s chances of production against a rejuvenated Chiefs defensive line. The Raiders' pass rush is much better than their run defense, which allows 28.7 full-point PPR points per game to running backs. Zeke will have to be everything and more for Dak Prescott and the offense with Amari Cooper (COVID) out and CeeDee Lamb (concussion) still questionable to play Thanksgiving Day.
