Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
After only carrying the ball 9 times in Week 2, Ezekiel Elliot received a heavy workload and had some fantasy success last week. The rushing yards were not great (80 yards), but he did score his first touchdown of the season. The 25 touches were the significant number for Elliot.
The second-year running back will face a Rams defense ranked 31st in aFPA to running backs, which means we could see a big day for Elliot. Especially if he gets the touches.
Elliot is one of the best fantasy plays for Week 4 and is a top-5 fantasy running back. Start him.
Week 3 at Arizona Cardinals
Ezekiel Elliott had his worst game as pro last week—only 9 carries for 8 yards—in a game that got away from Dallas early, forcing them to abandon the running game. There was also the play where Elliott gave little effort after an interception, which has been a distraction.
It won't be easy on Monday against a good Arizona defense ranked ninth in aFPA to running backs. But we expect Dallas to stick with the running game as the focus of the offense which means Elliott will get his regular allotment of carries and touches.
Start Elliott in all leagues and formats as the Cowboys will make it a priority to get Elliott deeply involved in the offense. He is a top-five fantasy running back for Week 3.
Week 2 at Denver Broncos
Ezekiel Elliot picked up where he left off from his rookie season. He ran for 104 yards and had another 36 receiving yards, but he did not score a touchdown so it wasn't his best fantasy outing. Now, the question is will there be a Week 2 for Elliot as his legal and NFL issues could be decided?
If he does play, he could have another big game. Denver is one of the better pass defenses in the NFL, but the running game can gain some traction and be a focus which Dallas likes to do anyway.
Elliot goes into Week 2 as one of the best fantasy running back plays. He will be a top five performer so start him in all leagues and formats.
Week 1 vs. New York Giants
Well, Ezekiel Elliott dodged a bullet at least for one week and will be in the starting lineup against the Giants. If you took him in the third round or lower, you are getting a major bargain, especially if the courts hold off on the six-game suspension.
Elliot was one of the best fantasy running backs in the NFL last season. He scored 15 rushing touchdowns and rushed for over 1,600 yards. With the offensive line pretty much still one of the best around, those numbers can easily be exceeded...if he plays.
Against the Giants last season, he rushed for a season-low 51 yards in the opener. But the second meeting was more favorable, with a 107-yard rushing day. It's a tough matchup, though, as New York was fifth in aFPA to running backs in 2016.
Elliot is no doubt an RB1 every time he takes the field and you should start him in all formats, but don't expect him to be the top back in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Ezekiel Elliott was an MVP candidate in 2016 and will be one in 2017. He finished last season as the fantasy RB2 in both standard and PPR leagues and his numbers are likely to improve playing behind one of the league's top offensive lines. The offense around him is solid overall, meaning teams can't focus solely on Elliott. His 2015 numbers were impressive: 1,631 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground.
Fantasy Downside
From a fantasy standpoint, Elliott could do better in the passing game. He caught 32 of his 40 targets for 363 yards and only one score. Dallas has stated they will get him more involved in their air game. If that part of his game improves, it could close the gap between him and the top-two consensus fantasy backs, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell. Another issue is his off-the-field transgressions that could result in a suspension.
2017 Bottom Line
Rookie running backs can sustain success despite the threat of a "sophomore slump". Elliott is almost a sure-thing to repeat his rookie performance, and even exceed it. He is the third player overall coming off the board behind Johnson and Bell. There's no reason not to take him there, even with a looming suspension.
UPDATE:
Week 19 vs Green Bay
Ezekiel Elliot was an MVP candidate this season and there is no reason to think he will slow down in the post-season. Elliot has been a beneficiary of his outstanding offensive line who is completely healthy.
The Packers aren't good against the run ranked 24th in aFPA to running backs. Expect a big day from Elliot as the top ranked running back for Divisional Playoff weekend.
Week 17 at Philadelphia
Ezekiel Elliot will start the game, but will probably only get five or six touches in this one. Darren McFadden is expected to carry the load, and for the first time this season, Elliot should be on your bench.
Week 16 vs Detroit
Ezekiel Elliot rushed for a season-high 159 yards and a touchdown in the win over Tampa Bay. He had 26 touches in the game and continues to be one of the best fantasy options in 2016. Elliot is averaging 110 yards per game and has scored 14 total touchdowns this season.
The Lions are the next opponent and are 17th in aFPA to running backs. This means another big game for Elliot, so start him as the No. 1 fantasy running back for Week 16 and expect big numbers.
Week 15 vs Tampa Bay
Ezekiel Elliot was back over the 100-yard mark for the first time since Week 10. He did not reach the end zone for the second time in six games, but he's continued to be effective late into his rookie season. More importantly, the Cowboys are still getting him 20+ touches per game.
Elliot will face a Tampa Bay defense this week, who is 10th in aFPA to running backs. Despite the tough matchup, the overwhelming numbers for Elliot still push him towards the top of the fantasy running back rankings. Start him in all leagues and formats as a top-5 back.
Week 14 at New York Giants
Last week was the seventh straight game Ezekiel Elliot had 20+ touches, which is why he continues to have success this season. He was 'limited' to 86 rushing yards - his lowest rushing total since Week 2 - but that just shows you how high expectations are for him and how successful he has been.
In the first meeting against New York, he was held to a season-low 51 yards, but don't take much from that as it was his NFL debut. He is now running like a seasoned veteran. The Giants are 27th in aFPA to running backs, so we could easily see Elliot back over the 100-yard mark this week
Start Elliot as a top-5 fantasy running back for Week 14.
