Week 8 at Cincinnati Bengals
Regardless of whether T.Y. Hilton was right or wrong (morally or schematically) about calling out his offensive line after last week's shutout, what matters is the Colts offense is a mess without Andrew Luck. No pass options can be trusted for consistent production, especially outside the top two options of T.Y. Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle. Bench Moncrief.
Week 7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Donte Moncrief is averaging less than 3 catches and 40 yards this season, while only scoring one touchdown with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Now, he faces a Jaguars defense that is fourth in PPR points allowed to fantasy WRs. Jacksonville is also first in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. It's a brutal spot. He belongs on your bench this week.
Week 6 at Tennessee Titans
Donte Moncrief's stats are slowly deteriorating with Kamar Aiken earning more time in the Colts offense. Given his target share in recent weeks, Moncrief is not a viable fantasy option.
Week 5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Rough matchup last week for Donte Moncrief, on top of just not being the same fantasy receiver without Andrew Luck, but he did make a great catch for a score in Seattle. He has a chance to do some damage this week against a 49ers secondary ranked 18th in our aFPA vs. PPR WR rankings. The 49ers have also allowed the sixth-most PPR points to fantasy WRs this season. With just three targets in back-to-back weeks, however, Moncrief is a desperation play and shouldn't be in starting lineups.
Week 4 at Seattle Seahawks
Even against the Browns last week, Donte Moncrief couldn't find the end zone without Andrew Luck. In 10 games without Andrew Luck in 2015 and 2016, Donte Moncrief has only averaged 3.8-42.7-0.2, which equates to 9.27 PPR fantasy points per game. Weeks 1-3 without Luck this season? A paltry 5.4 PPR fantasy points per game. Gross. You simply can't consider starting him right now, especially at Seattle.
Week 3 vs. Cleveland Browns
In 10 games without Andrew Luck in 2015 and 2016, Donte Moncrief has only averaged 3.8-42.7-0.2, which equates to 9.27 PPR fantasy points per game. Week 1 and 2 without Luck this season? A paltry 3.4 PPR fantasy points per game. Gross. You simply can't even consider starting him right now, even against the Browns.
Week 2 vs. Arizona Cardinals
In 10 games without Andrew Luck over the past two seasons, Donte Moncrief has only averaged 3.8-42.7-0.2, which comes out to 9.27 PPR fantasy points per game. Week 1? One reception for 50 yards. SImply put, this Colts TD maker when Luck is in the lineup is not a fantasy starter when Luck is out of the lineup. That applies in Week 2 as well, despite the Cardinals being 30th in our aFPA vs. PPR WRs. You just can't trust the Colts right now.
Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams
In ten games without Andrew Luck over the past two seasons, Donte Moncrief has only averaged 3.8-42.7-0.2, which comes out to 9.27 PPR fantasy points per game. That's outside FLEX territory. He has also only caught two of his 13 touchdowns in games Luck has not played. It's probably best to find a better option Week 1 against the Rams.
Fantasy Upside
Donte Moncrief's red zone chemistry with Andrew Luck cannot be denied. He has 12 touchdowns in his last 16 games with Luck under center. That made Moncrief the fantasy WR33 in games he played last season but outside the top 40 in those weeks (PPR).
Fantasy Downside
If Moncrief's red zone TD rate were to regress, he would basically lose all of his fantasy relevance, which makes him a big risk. He's only averaged 41.6 yards per game the past two seasons.
2017 Bottom Line
Moncrief is a boom-or-bust option each week. You're just hoping for a touchdown. That's hard to rely on outside of best-ball leagues. There are better WR options available at his ADP.
Week 17 at Jacksonville
Moncrief (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday, so status should be monitored going into Sunday. If he plays, consider him a solid FLEX, since he's scored a touchdown in 12 of his past 16 games with Andrew Luck at quarterback. He's a riskier start, however, in standard than PPR.
