Week 11 vs Dallas
Bouncing back from consecutive letdown weeks, Thielen had a solid game against Chicago in Week 10 as he caught four passes for 43 yards and two touchdowns. The most important item to note here is that Thielen saw seven targets in this game, the most targets he’s seen since Week 5. With the running game not as effective as it’s been in recent weeks, Thielen saw more work and was heavily targeted by Kirk Cousins in the redzone.
Week 11 will see Thielen taking on the Dallas Cowboys, who are ranked 30th in aFPA to WRs this season. Dallas has been painfully bad on defense this year, and with their best CB in rookie Trevon Diggs set to miss a few weeks with injury, Thielen might be primed for another blowup game. Keeping in mind how many carries Dalvin Cook will get, keep Thielen as a high-end WR2 in this one.
Week 10 at Chicago
Thielen had yet another bust of a game last week against the Lions as he only saw five targets of which he caught two passes for 38 yards. That makes consecutive weeks for Thielen with three or fewer receptions and under 40 yards receiving. On the precipice of having an excellent WR1 season, Thielen has fallen off completely due to the fact that Minnesota is heavily implementing their running game with Dalvin Cook having a historic season on the ground.
The Bears are ranked 2nd in aFPA to WRs this season, so the matchup was already going to be a difficult one regardless for Thielen. Combine the latter with over 20 carries for Cook, and it’s a recipe for another bust. Even though Thielen has been producing borderline WR3 numbers the past two weeks, he’s a WR1 waiting to happen, so we’ll split the difference and have WR2 expectations for him this week.
Week 9 vs Detroit
Thielen had a disappointing performance last week against Green Bay, as he only saw four targets which he turned into three receptions for 27 yards. Thielen and the rest of the passing game fell victim to Dalvin Cook’s huge day that consisted of him running the ball 30 times versus Kirk Cousins’ 14 passing attempts. It appears the Minnesota coaching staff is once again committed to the running game, which would put a damper on Thielen’s excellent WR1 season.
In Thielen’s Week 9 matchup against the Lions, he’ll be facing the 18th ranked aFPA defense to WRs this season, so there is reason to think he’ll have another big game. But with Detroit having one of the worst defenses in the league against the run, this might be another heavy Cook game. At any rate, Thielen should still see ample opportunity to produce WR2 numbers.
Week 8 at Green Bay
Fresh off the bye week, Thielen has proven to be one of the true alpha WRs in the NFL and has solidified his WR1 status in fantasy football despite the ascension of rookie sensation Justin Jefferson. His chemistry with Kirk Cousins is undeniable as he leads the team in targets and is near the top of the NFL leaders in the same category.
Thielen’s Week 8 matchup comes against the Green Bay Packers and one of the league’s young shutdown corners in Jaire Alexander. However, as prolific as Alexander has been, Thielen has consistently burned him and has had some monster games against this Green Bay secondary. Thielen’s best game of the season came in Week 1 against the Packers as he caught six balls for 110 yards and two touchdowns. In what would normally be a stiff matchup for most WRs, Thielen is a locked-and-loaded WR1 in this one.
Week 6 vs Atlanta
Thielen absolutely torched the Seattle secondary last week as he turned his 13 targets into nine receptions for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Once again proving to be Kirk Cousins favorite target, it is good to see Thielen producing at elite WR1 levels despite poor QB play and ascending WR play from rookie Justin Jefferson.
Thielen has a mouth-watering matchup against Atlanta in Week 6 who just gave up a total of 12 receptions for 205 yards and one touchdown to the WR duo of Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Thielen is our second-ranked WR this week, so expect elite WR1 numbers from him this one
Week 5 at Seattle
Following consecutive disappointing weeks, Thielen finally had a big day against Houston last week as he saw 10 targets which he turned into eight receptions for 114 yards and one touchdown. There was some concern with rookie Justin Jefferson starting to come into his own, however much like the previous seasons with Stefon Diggs, Thielen’s chemistry with Cousins is undeniable.
Thielen will look to carry his momentum this week against Seattle, who is currently last in aFPA to WRs. In what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, Thielen makes a strong WR1 against a poor Seahawks secondary.
Week 3 vs. Tennessee
After a stellar Week 1 performance, Thielen was bottled in Week 2 as he only caught three of his eight targets for 31 yards. The defense was all over Thielen in Week 2, but his performance can be greatly blamed on Kirk Cousin’s horrendous game that featured three interceptions and only eleven completions. There will be better days for Thielen as he is the only receiver worth throwing to on this Minnesota offense, and his Week 3 matchup against Tennessee can see that happen right away.
The Titans have faced a Courtland Sutton-less Denver Broncos and a Jacksonville Jaguars offense with a hobbled DJ Chark this season, so Thielen will be the first true alpha WR they will face this season. Once again a target hog, Theilen will see enough work to keep as a low-end WR1 in Week 3.
Week 2 at Indianapolis
Thielen’s 6-110-2 receiving line was pretty much business as usual for the now fully healthy WR1. Those who have owned him in the past typically expect big numbers from him and delivered Week 1 on the team-high eight targets. As it should go all season long, Thielen will continue to be a target hog in his Week 2 matchup against the Colts, keeping him squarely in the WR1 picture.
Week 1 vs. Green Bay
Adam Thielen’s 2019 was off to a promising start before getting derailed with injuries. Now fully healthy, Thielen will see a greater target share with the departure of Stefon Diggs and a shallow receiving group. Even though Minnesota will continue to be a run-first team, Thielen will benefit from having a very efficient Kirk Cousins almost exclusively throw him the ball. Fire up Thielen as a low-end WR1 for the season opener.
Fantasy Upside
Through the first six weeks of the 2019 season, Adam Thielen was the WR8 in fantasy football as he had five touchdowns and almost 400 receiving yards. However, a Week 7 hamstring injury cost Thielen to miss five games and derailed what appeared to be another promising season. Prior to last season, Thielen finished as the WR9 in 2017 and the WR7 in 2018, his first season with QB Kirk Cousins when he amassed career-highs in targets (153), receptions ( 113), yards(1,373) and touchdowns(9). With Minnesota trading away Thielen’s primary competition for targets in WR Stefon Diggs, Thielen is poised to be yet another target hog on a team that does not have much behind their primary WR.
Fantasy Downside
As seemingly the lone receiver for the Vikings, Thielen should command most targets for the team, however the amount of those targets can be exceedingly small. Minnesota’s heavy run scheme meant the team only passed the ball 444 times in contrast to their top-five, 476 rushing attempts. Even though there should be some positive regression in passing attempts, the 30-year-old Thielen will have to be mighty efficient with volume he gets to make a difference on fantasy rosters.
2020 Bottom Line
Prior to last season, Thielen was consistently one of the best receivers in the NFL and was a weekly WR1 in all leagues. Barring another injury, Thielen should once again be one of the league’s top producers at the position a lack of target competition coupled with a consolidated target distribution in a run-first team give Thielen serious potential for yet another 100-reception season. We have Thielen ranked 14th amongst wide receivers and his current ADP in 12-team leagues has him going in the middle of the 4th round. A true primary WR with the targets all to himself in Minnesota, Thielen has tremendous value as he has legitimate low-end WR1 potential in 2020.
