Week 1 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Adam Thielen had a career year in 2018, going 113-1,373-9. But after his hot start of 100-yard performances in nine of his first 11 games, Thielen cooled down. Part of that is because it was impossible to keep that pace up, but a major part was a change in offensive coordinators. Thielen's numbers dropped once Kevin Stefanski took over, but it was a small sample size.
Thielen should still be a productive wideout in 2019 and he gets a great opening week to prove it. He faces the Falcons, who gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts in 2018. Thielen should be viewed as a strong WR1 against Atlanta.
Fantasy Upside
Adam Thielen started 2018 off absolutely on fire with eight straight 100-yard games. He also scored a touchdown in nine of his first 12 games. He proved his 2017 season wasn’t a fluke, and has now produced back-to-back 1,200+ years. He was also a receptions monster, hauling in 113 passes, which placed him fourth in the league. He had just three games below five receptions. All of that is to say Thielen is one of the most talented wideouts in the league right now.
Fantasy Downside
Thielen’s production dropped pretty heavy once Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator. The Vikings have now made Stefanski full-time for 2019, so there’s clearly concern for Thielen heading into 2019. He went from averaging 7.9-95-0.69 in his first 13 games to 3.3-46-0.0 in his last three games. We mentioned in the upside section he had just three games below five receptions, well two of those games came under Stefanski. There’s a fear Minnesota will run the ball more often this season, which will obviously cut into Thielen’s 153 targets he had in 2018.
2019 Bottom Line
While there’s a real concern about a drop in production, a three-game sample size at the end of the year is hard to extrapolate into a full season. He should still near a 1,000-yard season, but he may not reach those 1,200-yard numbers he’s seen the last two years. While that may not seem like a whole lot, it makes a slight difference in his 2019 outlook. He’s still a great option, but he’s not the clear-cut WR1 he was for most of 2018. He’s more of a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 choice.
Week 17 vs. Chicago Bears
After an ugly 2-19 game, Adam Thielen bounced back with a solid 5-80 last week. Although he did fail to score for the third game in a row. In the first 12 games of the season, he had three games total without a touchdown, so it's surprising to see him not score now. He's certainly slowed down from his early season pace, but he's still worthy of being a WR1. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Bears, but he should still be in your starting lineups.
Week 16 at Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen had his worst game of the season by far, catching just two passes for 19 yards. It was just his third game without a touchdown or 100 yards, and all three have happened within the last five games (two straight). Thielen is still a top option, but his numbers have been dropping lately. Of course it was always ridiculous for him to keep up that pace from the start of the season.
We still like Thielen as a WR1 this week against Detroit. He did struggle against them a bit earlier in the year, finishing with a lowly 22 yards. He did score in the game, however. Even though he hasn't been quite as hot in recent weeks, Thielen is still a strong threat to score and can get 100 yards in any given week.
Week 15 vs. Miami Dolphins
Adam Thielen had one of his worst fantasy outputs last week, catching five passes (second-lowest of the season) for 70 yards (fourth lowest) and no touchdowns (just the fourth game without a score). Overall it wasn't an awful game from him, but fantasy owners have expected greatness after Thielen's incredible stretch of 100-yard games.
He should be fine this week in a favorable matchup against the Dolphins. Miami is allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game (262), so there's plenty of opportunities for Thielen to shine. Keep him as your WR1 this week.
Week 14 at Seattle Seahawks
Adam Thielen had his second-worst receiving game of the season, finishing with just 28 yards on five catches. But in typical Thielen fashion, he managed to find the end zone. He's now scored in all but two games this season and has 100 yards in all but three. Even when he's bad, he's good.
He gets a middle-of-the-road matchup against Seattle this week, so we expect him to be just fine. Thielen has been one of the best wideouts in fantasy this year, and it'd be crazy to view him as anything other than a must-start WR1.
Week 13 at New England Patriots
Adam Thielen is back to getting 100-yard games. He caught eight of his nine targets last week for 125 yards and a touchdown as his dominant season continues. He's had a score in all but three games, and has had 100 or more yards in all but two games.
We expect him to put up another big effort this week in what could be a high-scoring game against the Patriots. Even when Thielen has had down-games this season (which have been rare), he's found some way to stay relevant. He can be viewed as a WR1 option vs. New England.
Week 12 vs. Green Bay Packers
Adam Thielen started the year with eight straight 100-yard games. He hasn't reached that total in the last two games, but he's still played well. He scored in one of the games, and caught 7-of-12 targets for 66 yards in the other. Even though he isn't getting 100 every week anymore, he's still one of the best options at WR in fantasy.
This week he faces a Packers defense he torched for 131 yards (second best of the season) earlier in the year. It's unfair to expect that type of production again, but it's not unfair to predict a big game for him. Trust him as a strong WR1 option in Week 12.
Week 11 at Chicago Bears
Adam Thielen's 100-yard streak ended in Week 9, so it's best to just cut him and place him on waivers. All jokes aside, even when Thielen had a "bad" game, he still caught a touchdown. He has a score in six straight games, so while one streak ended, another one continued.
He gets a good enough matchup this week against Chicago where he shouldn't struggle too much. He's been a gem this season, and it'd be crazy to view him as anything other than a WR1. Start him with confidence this week.
Week 9 vs. Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen is keeping the streak alive, finishing with over 100 yards in his eighth straight game last week (103). He even added 15 yards on the ground. He also scored in his fifth straight game (sixth of the season) and has had six-plus catches in each game this season. There's not much else to say: Thielen has been incredible.
The Lions aren't a great matchup this week, but they've been far from a lockdown D. And at this point with how well Thielen has been playing, it'd be crazy to view him as anything other than a strong WR1.
