2022 Fantasy Upside
Adam Thielen finished as a WR1 in 2020 when he caught 14 touchdowns as Kirk Cousins' go-to red zone target even as rookie phenom Justin Jefferson emerged on the same depth chart. While Thielen took a step back in 2021 (in part due to injury), he still managed 10 touchdowns in only 13 games. While Thielen will turn 32 in August and his efficiency has predictably declined as he ages, he continues to maintain fantasy relevance due to his chemistry with Cousins, particularly near the end zone. The Vikings offense is expected to play a more aggressive style this season with Mike Zimmer out of the picture and Kevin O'Connell installed as Head Coach. More trips to the red zone could balance out any loss of yardage or efficiency in Thielen's fantasy profile as he enters the late stages of his career. Thielen may not be an exciting pick, but he still brings double-digit touchdown upside and has limited target competition aside from Jefferson.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Thielen's downside begins with his age. At 32, Thielen is well past the prime age of production for WRs, and he did end up missing the final four games last season due to an ankle injury that required surgery. The Vikings may not have many established pass catching options outside of Jefferson and Thielen, but K.J. Osborn showed he could play after Thielen got hurt last year and Irv Smith Jr. is a talented prospect at tight end. Should Thielen hit an age-related cliff, Osborn and Smith look poised to absorb chunks of his target share.
2022 Bottom Line
Thielen should be useful in fantasy as a borderline WR2 due to his touchdown potential and established rapport with Cousins. Thielen is not getting any hype as a 32-year-old veteran, but at a certain point he becomes a value, especially if O'Connell follows through on his pledge to make the Minnesota offense more aggressive.
Week 16 vs. Rams
Adam Thielen looks ready to return to the lineup just in time for a shootout against the Rams. We all know about Thielen's high touchdown equity and he has a great chance at finding the endzone given the projected uptick in passing volume. I wouldn't expect a limited role considering he almost returned this past week against the Bears. You can fire him up as a WR2 with upside in this spot.
Week 13 at Lions
Adam Thielen continues to laugh at the idea of touchdown regression, finding the endzone six times in his last six games, including two against the 49ers last week. The veteran wideout is now up to 63 receptions, 686 yards, and 10 touchdowns on the season. While the yardage output isn't that great, it's clear that the touchdowns aren't going away because Cousins likes to feed him in the red zone.
The Vikings should be able to move the ball at will against this Lions defense, which should give Thielen plenty of opportunities to hit pay dirt once again. While he's the clear-cut number-two option in this offense, you still have to like him as a rock-solid WR2 with upside, especially in terrific matchups like this one.
Week 12 at 49ers
Adam Thielen continues to provide WR2 production despite average yardage output because of his insane touchdown rate. However, we can't really expect regression here since it's clear that Thielen has fantastic chemistry with Kirk Cousins. He's Cousins' favorite target between-the-20s.
However, in games like this one, where we could see a limited amount of plays, Thielen becomes riskier. He'll likely need to find the endzone in order to return WR2 value in this spot. While he's tough to bench on any given week due to his touchdown equity, I wouldn't be too excited about playing him in this game.
Week 11 vs. Packers
Adam Thielen is more at risk in this tough matchup. We've seen how low his floor can be this year, just take a look at his matchup against the Ravens where he caught 2-of-6 targets for six yards and a touchdown. Thielen has been held to 50 yards or fewer in five of nine games this year, but he's caught seven touchdowns already. This looks like it could be another floor week with inefficient production, so we might need Thielen to find the endzone in order to provide WR2 value in this spot.
Week 10 at Chargers
Adam Thielen had a dud game last week, catching 2-of-7 targets for six yards, but he did salvage a bit of production with a late touchdown. Thielen continues to get peppered in the red zone, leading the team with 10 red-zone targets. The veteran has posted two Top-12 finishes in his last three games.
Thielen is a bit more vulnerable to this tough matchup than Jefferson because the veteran runs shorter routes (9.2 aDOT). This makes Thielen depend on more volume to provide strong production. Still, we need to consider him as a WR2 because this game has a chance to turn into an absolute shootout.
Week 9 at Ravens
Adam Thielen has gotten it going in the last two weeks, combining for 17 receptions, 204 yards, and two touchdowns. This was after he had put up 50 yards or fewer in four consecutive games. He looks like a rock-solid WR2 with upside in this potential shootout against the Ravens. The veteran wideout now has a 22.52% target share, which isn't too far from Justin Jefferson (24.04%).
Thielen is a beast in the red zone and this game could see a lot of points, so there's a good chance that the veteran finds pay dirt given his touchdown equity. While I think that it'll be Justin Jefferson who really goes off out of the Vikings wideouts in this matchup, Thielen has a high floor with good upside.
Week 8 vs. Cowboys
Thielen got back on track in the Panthers game before the bye week, catching 11-of-13 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. It was great to see him bounce back after putting up 50 yards or fewer in four consecutive games. Thielen has been able to get in full practices all week, so it's all systems go for Week 8.
Thielen looks like a rock-solid WR2 with upside in this projected shootout. In a game that should see several scoring opportunities, there's a good chance that Thielen will find the endzone given his touchdown equity.
Week 6 at Panthers
Thielen has been most affected by the Vikings' recent struggles on offense, limited to only five receptions for 86 yards in the last two games. The veteran wideout has now posted 50 yards or fewer in four consecutive games. He's starting to look like a touchdown-dependent player on the WR2/3 fringe.
Thielen will likely need to find the end zone to provide solid production in this tough spot. While it's concerning to see this drop-off in production for a wideout on the wrong side of 30, we still need to consider Thielen in the Top-30 wide receivers due to his terrific rapport with quarterback Kirk Cousins. Hopefully, he can get back on track here.
Week 5 vs. Lions
Thielen has finished as WR4, WR31, WR18, and WR65 this season. While he's become a bit more touchdown-dependent since Jefferson has eclipsed him in target share, the veteran continues to be a beast in the red zone, totaling four touchdowns this season. He's got a fantastic rapport with Kirk Cousins, so we need to consider him as a weekly WR2.
Thielen has a decent chance at approaching his ceiling in this smash spot against a Lions defense with one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL. The risk here is that the Vikings are so effective at running the ball in this spot, making it difficult to support two wideouts with strong production, but we need to fire up Thielen as an upside WR2.
