Week 6 at Miami Dolphins
Adam Thielen has been one of the few bright spots for the Panthers so far this season. He caught 11 balls for 107 yards and a touchdown in a blowout loss to the Lions - granted, his score was in garbage time - and he now has scored in three out five games as a Panther.
This week, Thielen faces a Miami defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. The Dolphins should keep running the score up, however, so there’s more potential for garbage-time fantasy stats, which did well for Thielen last week. Consider Thielen a high-floor, WR2 option this week.
Week 5 at Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen had seven catches for 76 yards last week and he’s putting together a quality fantasy season considering his low pre-season draft cost and the state of the Carolina offense. He has 27 receptions and two touchdowns in four games and has double-digit half-PPR points in three of his four outings.
Thielen has a nice and familiar matchup this week against a Detroit defense that ranks 25th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Expect the Panthers to need to throw the ball to keep up with the dynamic Detroit offense, making Thielen a sneaky WR2 option in fantasy leagues. He’s still finding ways to get open and has developed a strong rapport with rookie Bryce Young so far this season.
Week 4 vs. Minnesota Vikings
After just two catches and 12 yards in Week 1, Adam Thielen is back to doing Adam Thielen-like things. He has 20 targets and two touchdowns over the last two games combined, and he caught 11 balls for 145 yards last week in a loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers desperately need a wide receiver to step up in this offense, and it looks like Thielen could be that guy.
Thielen has a great matchup this week against a Vikings defense that ranks 30th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Thielen has been growing in this offense and his veteran savvy seems to work well with Andy Dalton’s veteran keen, giving him upside. We have him ranked as a solid WR3 option this week.
Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks
Adam Thielen caught seven of his nine targets last week and scored his first touchdown as a Panther. Thielen has a nice matchup this week against a struggling Seattle defense that has given up 61 points already in just two games, but he’s a risky bet in most fantasy leagues. The Panthers may be without Bryce Young and they look like they’re still trying to learn the offense. Thielen has some deep league upside, but is ultimately too risky to start in most fantasy formats. We have him ranked outside starter territory.
Week 17 at Green Bay Packers
Adam Thielen is now competing for targets with an All-Pro teammate in Justin Jefferson, an effective receiving tight end in T.J. Hockenson, and even a solid third receiver in K.J. Osborn. As a result, Thielen is seeing a decline in target share and only managed a 1-6-0 line on five targets last week against the Giants. Thielen's fantasy viability is largely dependent on touchdowns at this point in his career, and that almost always means the player will struggle with a low weekly floor. Thielen gets a familiar division foe this week in the Packers and their mediocre defense, but Thielen is not seeing the requisite target share to use as a starting option in a fantasy championship matchup.
Week 16 vs. New York Giants
Adam Thielen had a low-volume outing in Week 15 despite being part of a massive comeback win where the Vikings erased a 33-point deficit before winning in overtime. Thielen's four targets were well behind both Justin Jefferson (16) and T.J. Hockenson (9), but the veteran managed to find the end zone on only three catches for 41 yards and scraped out a WR3-worthy box score for fantasy. Thielen's fantasy utility is heavily dependent on touchdowns these days with Hockenson supplanting him for the second-fiddle role to Jefferson in the team's target hierarchy, but he will have a good shot at finding the end zone this week against a mediocre Giants secondary that will have their hands full with Minnesota's skill players. Thielen remains a decent fantasy WR3 heading into Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Adam Thielen benefitted from the Vikings' negative game script and resulting aerial attack in Week 14. He saw eight targets, catching seven of them for 65 yards and a touchdown against a porous Lions secondary. The matchup does get a bit worse this week against the Colts, but Thielen has shown some signs of life in recent weeks with weekly WR1 finishes in two out of the last three games. The addition of T.J. Hockenson has complicated the target shares in Minnesota, but their pass-happy tendencies have left room for everyone to produce in recent games. Thielen still has a low floor but is worthy of WR3 consideration in Week 15.
Week 14 at Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen had a difficult matchup against the Jets in Week 13 and returned to his pedestrian ways with 27 scoreless yards on two receptions. Thielen's overall fantasy performance has left much to be desired this season, but there are reasons to believe he could produce this week. He, and the entire Vikings offense, get a great matchup taking on a bad Lions defense in a dome. He also could benefit from the Lions selling out to slow Justin Jefferson, who they double teamed and shut down in the teams' first meeting in Week 3. Even with these factors in play, Thielen cannot be trusted as anything more than a middling flex play this week being behind Jefferson, and possibly tight end T.J. Hockenson, for targets.
Week 13 vs. New York Jets
Adam Thielen had a nice game on the Thanksgiving slate against the Patriots. Thielen saw a season-high 10 targets from Kirk Cousins and caught nine of them for 61 yards and a touchdown. Thielen's WR9 finish on the week was his best by far this season, which does cause some concern as to whether Week 12 will simply be a small blip on the radar of a down fantasy season for Thielen. He will face off with a strong Jets defense this week, although New York's rookie sensation Sauce Gardner will probably be deployed against Thielen's All-Pro teammate Justin Jefferson. Thielen is back on the flex radar after a strong performance last week coming off the Week 11 disaster against Dallas.
Week 12 vs. New England Patriots
Adam Thielen's fantasy stock took a hit with the Vikings trading for tight end T.J. Hockenson prior to Week 9, who has quickly assumed the title of Kirk Cousins' second favorite target behind Justin Jefferson. Thielen, along with all of the Vikings, had a miserable Week 11 where he didn't even finish out the game with Head Coach Kevin O'Connell pulling his starters in the blowout to avoid injury. Thielen's prospects of a bounce back in Week 12 against New England likely hinge on the Patriots selling out to take away Jefferson, leaving Thielen in single coverage. Either way, this is another difficult matchup for the Vikings and their injury-depleted offensive line. Thielen is best left on fantasy benches this week.
