Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Adam Thielen caught five balls on seven targets for 49 scoreless yards in the Vikings' Week 10 win against the Bills. Thielen is still playing virtually all of Minnesota's offensive snaps, but he is more of an ancillary option these days as the offense is built around Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, not to mention T.J. Hockenson (who has 19 targets in his first two games as a Viking) now being in the fold. Thielen's calling card in recent seasons has been the red zone but he only has two touchdowns on the season in 2022. Without more involvement in the red zone, Thielen is not seeing the type of usage that leads to anything more than borderline WR3 numbers, and his role is at risk of dwindling given the recent changes in Minnesota's offense.
Week 10 at Buffalo Bills
Adam Thielen logged a 3-67-0 line in Week 9 to finish as a WR3 for fantasy, but he is now competing with T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson for targets. Hockenson arrived in Minnesota and instantly saw nine targets to Thielen's seven in Week 9. Thielen is still playing a ton of snaps, but his target share is in jeopardy following Hockenson's arrival via trade. Thielen will also have to do battle with the Bills' formidable defense in Week 10, but he still projects as a decent flex play in what could be a high-scoring affair (assuming Josh Allen is active for Buffalo).
Week 9 at Washington Commanders
Adam Thielen has only really been a fantasy asset this season in games where he manages to find the end zone. Thielen's season-high for yardage remains the 72 receiving yards he had back in Week 4. Thielen is now 32 years old and lacks the sort of explosiveness that leads to massive yardage games as he is much more of a low-aDOT technician than a big-play threat. Another concern for Thielen is the arrival of T.J. Hockenson via trade. While it is not yet clear exactly what role Hockenson will have in Minnesota, but he is a more established player than Irv Smith Jr. and could draw additional targets to the tight end position. Any bump for Hockenson would likely come from Thielen's share rather than that of superstar WR1 Justin Jefferson. Thielen is worth a look as a WR3, but keep in mind he will likely need a touchdown to pay off as a starter.
Week 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Adam Thielen managed a useable fantasy day before the bye week by catching a touchdown to go along with his four catches for 36 yards. Thielen has always been good in the red zone but he is more reliant on touchdowns than ever before having maxed out at 72 yards receiving through six games. The Vikings passing game gets a great matchup this week against Arizona, making Thielen worth considering as a flex play for fantasy purposes.
Week 6 at Miami Dolphins
Adam Thielen still plays on nearly every snap for the Vikings offense (95.6% share) but his production has predictably declined as he becomes less efficient with age. Thielen's yards per route run sits at a lowly 1.26 and his 8.5 aDOT is low with virtually nothing to offer after the catch. Thielen only has one touchdown on the season as he falls further and further behind Justin Jefferson in Kirk Cousins' target distribution. Thielen may still be usable in PPR leagues with bye weeks coming, but he is tough to trust as a fantasy starter right now, even with a nondescript matchup against an average Dolphins defense on deck.
Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears
After a slow Week 1 where he only saw four targets, Adam Thielen's target count has increased to seven, eight, and now nine in subsequent games. Thielen also has 18 catches over the past three weeks and has now finished as a fantasy WR2 in consecutive games. It should be noted that Thielen is still on the field a ton; he ranks fourth among wide receivers in snap share and eighth in routes run. He's also seen six red zone targets already, good for a top-10 finish at the position. If someone in your league is still down on Thielen, it might be time to buy as he is clearly still a big part of this Minnesota offense. In the short term, Thielen makes for a good WR2/Flex option facing off against a mediocre Bears defense in Week 5.
Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints (London)
Adam Thielen is playing a ton of snaps (95% share) and running a ton of routes (15th amongst WRs at 116). The only problem is all that playing time has led to little actual production through three weeks. Thielen's 17% target share is simply too low to bring consistent fantasy production, and he is currently sporting an ugly mark of 1.28 yards per route run (70th at the position). Perhaps the only saving grace for Thielen so far is the fact that he's ninth in red zone targets amongst WRs with five. Thielen found the end zone in Week 3, but it is not a good sign that his fantasy performances look like they will depend heavily on touchdowns this season. Thielen gets the mediocre Saints defense in Week 4, but he makes for no more than a shaky flex play given recent performances.
Week 3 vs. Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen continued to place a distant second in the Vikings' WR target hierarchy in Week 2 when he gathered four receptions on seven targets and actually out-gained teammate Justin Jefferson with 52 receiving yards. The modest yardage totals for both Jefferson and Thielen tell the story of a game where the Vikings were dominated by the Eagles defense and Kirk Cousins struggled with accuracy under pressure. Week 3 should bring more production for all of the Vikings as the Lions pose a far easier matchup than the Eagles and Thielen's limited involvement thus far has been skewed to a certain extent by the extreme game scripts faced by Minnesota in both games. In a soft home matchup, Thielen is worth another shot as a flex this week.
Week 2 at Philadelphia Eagles
While the Vikings passing game trampled the Packers in Week 1, Adam Thielen did not get to participate much as teammate Justin Jefferson dominated the targets and air yards from Kirk Cousins. In fact, Cousins only threw for 95 yards that were not credited to Jefferson, leaving very little opportunity for Thielen to produce on four targets. While Jefferson is going to command a huge target share all season, things should balance out at least a bit from where they stand now, meaning Thielen is likely in store for some better days ahead. Week 2 could be one of them as the Eagles are coming off a defensive performance where they allowed 35 points to the Lions and gave up good fantasy days to D'Andre Swift, Amon Ra St. Brown, and D.J. Chark. Thielen still appears to be second in line for targets in Kevin O'Connell's new scheme, making him worthy of consideration as a flex play against Philly in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Green Bay Packers
Drafters who took Adam Thielen will be hoping he has at least one more season of highly-efficient red zone play in the tank at age 32. Coming off season-ending ankle surgery, Thielen will do battle with the familiar Packers secondary in Week 1, a unit that was tough on opposing pass catchers last season. Thielen is surely behind superstar teammate Justin Jefferson in the pecking order at this point in his career, but he still has Kirk Cousins' trust near the end zone and remains a savvy player in terms of route running and gaining separation in tight spaces. Thielen might end up being a bit touchdown-dependent this season, but he is still playable as a flex in fantasy until we see some signs that his play is dropping off for good.
