Week 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Adam Thielen shined last week with Stefon Diggs out, catching 9 passes for 96 yards (on 13 targets). He's had a pretty solid season overall, averaging over 80 yards per game. His numbers could slide a bit this week, though, as he gets a brutal matchup against the Ravens.
Baltimore is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game. We still like Thielen this week because he should continue to get plenty of targets with Diggs likely out again, but there is a chance he could have a down performance. He should be viewed as a WR2 option this week.
Week 6 vs. Green Bay Packers
Adam Thielen was second on the team in targets (8) last week, but struggled to do too much with them in a struggling Vikings offense. He finished with 34 yards (season-low) on 5 catches and that was even with Stefon Diggs missing some time due to an injury.
He'll get a decent matchup this week against the Packers where he'll hope to bounce back. Perhaps a full week of practice with Case Keenum will help instead of playing with two quarterbacks in one game.
Thielen has been pretty reliable this season outside of last week, although he still hasn't scored this season. He should be viewed as a low-end WR1, especially with Stefon Diggs being ruled out.
Week 5 at Chicago Bears
Stefon Diggs leads the NFL in receiving yards, but Adam Thielen isn't too far behind him as he's in third. He also has two more receptions and the same amount of targets as Diggs. In other words, Thielen wasn't just a one-year wonder last season.
We look for Thielen to have more success this week in a decent matchup against the Bears. He's remained pretty consistent this season, but his main drawback is the fact he hasn't found the end zone. He could score this week as the Bears allowed four touchdowns to receivers a week ago, but it's no guarantee. Still, Thielen should be viewed as a low-end WR1 this week.
Week 4 vs. Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen has had a strong season so far, averaging about 100 yards per game. With Case Keenum in at quarterback last week, Thielen finished with 5 receptions for 98 yards on 8 targets. He's been the clear No. 2 target behind Stefon Diggs.
Thielen will get a decent matchup against the Lions this week. Detroit has been middle-of-the-pack when it comes to allowing points vs. receivers this season. We expect Thielen to continue to get right around his average, which makes him a WR3 option against the Lions.
Week 3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Without Sam Bradford, Adam Thielen had a drop-off performance in Week 2. He wasn't awful, but his 5 receptions for 44 yards wasn't exactly appealing, either. His value would take a hit this week if Sam Bradford is unable to play, especially against a tough defense like the Bucs.
If Bradford is able to go, though, then Thielen should be in the fantasy picture. He's the team's deep threat receiver after Bradford dumps passes off to Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph, meaning he's prone to having big 100-yard games.
Assuming Bradford is healthy, Thielen should be viewed as a strong WR3 play this week.
Week 2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Even though Diggs stole the show with two scores in Week 1, Adam Thielen delivered his own breakout performance. He led the team in targets (10), receptions (9), and yards (157). He proved last year's big games weren't just a fluke, and he has a chance to continue to have these big games.
He gets a decent matchup this week against the Steelers, and if he continues to get targets he'll be a solid fantasy start. He should be viewed as a strong WR2 play.
Week 1 vs. New Orleans Saints
Adam Thielen had a breakout season in 2016, seemingly coming out of nowhere to lead the Vikings in receiving yards (967). He also had the most touchdowns (5) of any receiver in Minnesota.
He'll look to continue that success in Week 1 of 2017 with a favorable matchup against the Saints. Thielen has the ability to have big games, as he had three 100-yard performances last year, including a 202-yard effort.
There's some risk in playing Thielen, but if you're using him as a WR3 then you should feel comfortable playing him in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Adam Thielen arrived out of nowhere last year in his third season in the NFL. He finished with a team-leading 967 receiving yards on 69 receptions. He was the team’s big-play receiver as he had 16 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. He managed to finish the season with big numbers, despite only averaging 5.8 targets per game. Heading into 2017, Thielen enters as the No. 2 option behind Stefon Diggs.
Fantasy Downside
A lot of Thielen’s numbers are inflated due to an insane 12-catch, 202-yard, 2-touchdown game against the Packers late in the season. We’re likely not going to see that type of game from him again, and if you take that performance away, Thielen’s overall numbers don’t look quite as strong. Also, Thielen may be the No. 2 receiver, but he’s behind Kyle Rudolph and potentially even Dalvin Cook in terms of looks from the quarterback.
2017 Bottom Line
Thielen has some upside and is worth a late-round pick in fantasy drafts, but don’t expect another season like last year. This is a run-first team, and Thielen is at least the No. 3 option in the passing game. There’s always a chance he recaptures last season’s magic, and if so, then he’s worth a roster spot, but it’s better to realize it’s unlikely to happen.
Week 17 vs. Chicago
Adam Thielen broke out last week against the Packers with 202 yards on 12 receptions with Stefon Diggs out. Diggs will likely miss another week, which means Thielen becomes the top receiving threat for Minnesota.
He won't get a dream matchup against the Bears, but Chicago has been involved in big offensive battles in recent weeks, so there's a chance Thielen finds success. We like the breakout player as a low-end WR1 play against Chicago.
Week 15 vs. Indianapolis
Adam Thielen is starting to make a name for himself, as he led the team in receiving yards (101) last week. He's not too far behind Stefon Diggs in receiving yards on the season, and he even has more touchdowns than his more well-known counterpart.
Thielen will look to continue his success this week against the Colts. Indy has been a bit stingier towards wideouts in recent weeks, but we still like Thielen as a WR3 play.
