Scott Smith’s Best Bets for UFC Vegas. 83: Song vs Gutierrez
UFC Austin was a rough week for the 4for4 team. A couple of slam knockouts and underwhelming performances by heavy favorites provided the variance that makes for a maddening sport to bet on. We look to bounce back as the UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas. Yadong Song takes on the well-rounded Chris Gutierrez in a 5-round main event. This card has had challenges, with four late-round replacements and one fight falling off completely due to visa issues.
UFC Vegas 83 Best Bets
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Tatsuo Taira and Yadong Song to win (-200, Caesars)
Fight Breakdown: Yadong Song vs Chris Gutierrez
Chris Gutierrez is a well-rounded fighter with good conditioning and above-average athleticism. Gutierrez is a smart fighter that rarely changes his game plan. He fights with a kick-heavy striking approach that allows him to fight at a range where he can use his movement to enter and exit exchanges. He fights with good volume and pace but lacks consistent fight-ending power in his striking. He is competent with his grappling and wrestling but is more comfortable using his kicks and movement in fights. Gutierrez will have to rely on his movement skills to deal with the superior athlete in Song.
Yadong Song is one of the elite athletes at 135-pounds. He has earned his way to the top, often fighting the best the division has to offer. Song is quick and powerful with his striking and uses it to dictate fights. While not reckless, Song throws everything with power, which can often leave holes in his defense, allowing him to be a bit too hittable. Song has above-average wrestling with average grappling skills. On the ground, Song does a good job at creating space to get back to his feet. In this fight he should have better wrestling and may even be able to lean on it to wear down Gutierrez. Song will be the superior fighter in a number of areas, thus giving him multiple paths to victory. He has more experience in 5-round fights and has fought better opponents. Gutierrez is no slouch, but he is a step down in talent compared to Ricky Simon and Cory Sandhagen.
Fight Breakdown: Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Hernandez
Carlos Hernandez is an undersized but improving fighter. He has improved striking, as shown in his most recent win against Denys Bondar. The win against Bondar was his most complete showing to date. The missing component in his striking is that he just doesn’t have power to pose a significant threat on the feet. Hernandez has yet to register a win via striking. Hernandez has a solid grappling and submission game but struggles in the wrestling department to consistently get the fight to the ground. Hernandez can be too comfortable fighting off his back and has shown to be more willing to throw up submissions than work his way back to the feet. Hernandez will have to control the striking with his jab and dictate exchanges while being defensively sound with his wrestling defense if he is to fend off Taira.
Tatsuro Taira is a talented young fighter that is elite with his grappling. Taira is 23 years old and undefeated as an amateur and pro. Taira often dictates the wrestling in his fights, where he can use superior technique and control to advance into position to threaten with submissions. Taira is a patient striker with decent power, but he can find himself in trouble against better strikers. Taira found himself in some trouble against Edgar Chairez but was able to remain patient and grind through to victory. Hernandez should be a willing grappler in this fight, and I expect Taira to overwhelm him on the ground.
Risk: 2 units at Caesars to win 1 unit (Playable down to -250)
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