Scott Smith’s Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Yan vs Dvalishvili
Contenders Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili headline this week’s Fight Night in what can be described as a title-eliminator fight. Other notable fighters include Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann, who were set to fight in a main event two weeks ago until Krylov fell ill. Overall, matchmakers have put together one of the most competitively matched cards in quite some time. With that said, expect a number of upsets as my system rates four fights as pick’ ems and three more with low confidence ratings.
UFC Fight Night Best Bets
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JJ Aldrich, Victor Henry (-120, DraftKings)
JJ Aldrich vs. Ariane Lipski Fight Breakdown
Lipski is 3-5 in the UFC, having been finished in each of her last three losses. Her most recent win was against Mandy Bohm, who was cut after two losses and multiple canceled bouts. Lipski is a solid striker that lacks power to finish fights. She does her best work when she controls top position and dictates the grappling. The glaring hole in Lipski’s game is that she can be taken down and has little to offer from her back. She is easily controlled and often pounded out in her losses. At this point, the path to victory over Lipski is well known, and Lipski has shown little development in changing that narrative over the years.
JJ Aldrich is by no means a killer. While she’s not dangerous in any one faction, she is skilled enough everywhere to outwork most women. Her loss to title contender Erin Blanchfield showed that she can compete with top talent in the division. While she isn’t on that level, she is the bridge to get there. Aldrich is better than Lipski in almost every technical area of fighting. She has solid fight IQ and trains with better fighters. She shows consistent improvement and should be able to win this fight wherever it takes place. Aldrich can win the fight on the feet with volume, or she can take the easier path by putting Lipski on her back.
Victor Henry vs. Tony Gravely Fight Breakdown
There is no secret as to who Tony Gravely is as a fighter. He has a singular focus on putting his opponents down and winning via ground and pound. Gravely is an athletic, powerful fighter that uses his wrestling to get fights into an advantageous position. On the feet, Gravely has power, but he is often not active enough and can be outstruck from distance. Gravely comes forward with his striking to set up his takedowns. The problem with Gravely is that he can get lost in fights if he fails to put opponents on the mat with his wrestling. This matchup will be close, and you know what to expect from Gravely, he will spam takedowns throughout the fight. If he gets them, he will be game for an upset. If not, it will be a long night.
Victor Henry isn’t your average two-fight UFC veteran. Henry had 26 fights before getting his UFC debut. In that debut, he crushed bettors with an upset victory over Raoni Barcelos, where he showed sharp striking and the ability to defend the takedown. The problem is that his second outing was the polar opposite of his first. He came out flat and did little on the feet, and gave up takedowns to veteran Raphael Assuncao. Thus far, Henry has been the tale of two fighters in the UFC. If he comes out and fights Gravely the way he did in his debut, it will be an easy night. If not, he will get controlled by Gravely. Henry is at his best when focusing on counterstriking rather than leading the dance. That should be the case in this fight. Henry is the more talented and well-rounded fighter in this matchup. I expect Henry to defend takedowns and pick Gravely apart as he comes forward. Henry is better than he showed in his last fight, and he should be hungry to prove it here in this spot.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.2 units. (Playable down to +110)
Josh Fremd to win (+180, DraftKings)
Sedriques Dumas vs. Josh Fremd Fight Breakdown
Sedriques Dumas is making his UFC debut after getting a big win on DWCS as an underdog. Dumas is a perfect 7-0, but aside from his most recent fight, he has fought a bunch of cans. Dumas has shown an ability to finish fights. He is mostly a striker with power in his hands and feet. He has two submission victories on his record, but one is against a fighter that is 2-20. The other was in his most recent fight, where his opponent stuck his neck out with no idea how to defend the guillotine. Dumas has shown a serviceable ability to wrestle but has yet to do so against an opponent skilled in that department. Dumas is composed on the feet but will struggle against a fighter like Fremd that will make him grind. Overall, Dumas still has a number of questions he needs to answer against higher-level opponents. How he performs this week will go a long way toward giving us those answers.
Fremd is 0-2 in the UFC. In his most recent fight, a guillotine loss against Tresean Gore, he was winning the fight until he left his neck vulnerable. Fremd’s back is against the wall in this matchup, as a loss will likely result in his release from the UFC. Fremd has solid athleticism and power in his hands. He will be the bigger fighter in this matchup and should do well dictating the exchanges. Fremd is at his best when he can push the pace with his grappling. He will have to clean up some mistakes and show improvement from his last fight. If he is reckless with his head placement, Dumas will capitalize and look to finish with strikes or a choke. Fremd has some holes in his game, but overall he has fought much stiffer competition in the UFC and LFA, which should come into play in this fight. Fremd’s wrestling should cause Dumas issues while also negating some of the advantages Dumas has on the feet. Fremd has the tools and experience to get the win in this matchup.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.8 units (playable down to +150)
DraftKings $1,000 Deposit Bonus
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