Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Bets from Connor Allen
Football is rolling, and Week 3 is already shaping up to be a fun one for props. By now, we’re getting a clearer picture of how teams want to play — but that also means the market is catching up. This is where we need to stay sharp, picking our spots and exploiting inefficiencies before they disappear. We had a pretty forgettable Week 2 with a few early injuries and late losses, but I'm not letting it impact my process as we head into Week 3!
I’ve already dropped several plays in our subscriber Discord, with plenty more coming as lines move. Last season, I finished up over 40 units, hitting more than 66% of my unders, and we’re looking to keep stacking wins as September rolls on. I have also been using our NEW suite of betting tools, SharpStack, a ton. It's super easy to add sharp, +ev volume, and the prop odds screen is incredible. Get a free 7-day trial when signing up!
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Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets
Tua Tagovailoa — Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-114 FD, -120 DK/MGM/Rivers/HR, fine at 34.5)
Tua has struggled against the Bills historically. Across his last 4 starts vs Buffalo, he has 0 completions longer than 28 yards on 115 attempts.
This week, the Dolphins’ OL is severely compromised, Jaylen Waddle is questionable, and the Bills rank 7th in pressure rate and 2nd in non-blitz pressure rate — and that’s after facing the Ravens and Jets’ strong offensive lines.
Tua’s deep ball has also looked weak — Tyreek had to stop on a 40-yard route last week just to adjust to the underthrow. Only a broken YAC play is scary here.
Risk 1.14u to win 1u
TreVeyon Henderson — Under 5.5 Carries (+105 CZRS, 6.5 Rivers/MGM, fine at 5.5 FD/Builder)
Henderson opened the year with 5 carries in Week 1 but dropped to just 3 last week after blowing multiple pass-protection reps. He logged only 5 snaps in the entire second half.
Even in a neutral game script, he was out-carried by both Rhamondre Stevenson (11) and Antonio Gibson (5). Despite offseason expectations, it appears the Patriots want Gibson involved more, not Henderson. Meanwhile, Drake Maye is running more than expected (14 carries in 2 games), eating into backfield volume.
This game also projects as a slow-paced slog with both teams finishing bottom 10 in pace last week.
Risk 1u to win 1.05u
