Zay Flowers

Fantasy Upside
As a rookie, Zay Flowers blossomed into the No. 1 option in the Ravens' passing attack, beginning the season as a schemed-touch option before expanding his route tree to include more than simple screens. He had double-digit targets in five games, as the team did everything they could to get him the ball in the open field. Through the offseason, Baltimore allowed Odell Beckham to walk while spending only a fourth-round pick on the position. Flowers is set up to fight with Mark Andrews to once again lead the team in targets, while more downfield targets could lead to 100+ yard spike weeks in 2024.

Fantasy Downside
While there is certainly nothing wrong with having a fantasy asset that the play-callers want to force-feed the ball, 26.9% of Flowers' 2023 targets came from behind the line of scrimmage. It's worth wondering if they just wanted the ball in his hands that bad or if they didn't trust him to do anything else. The rookie's role expanded in the second half of the year, but through the first eight weeks of the season, his 7.7 aDOT ranked sixth on the team. Even with that expanded role, he only hit 100 yards once (Week 17, 106), and was unable to eclipse 60 on nine occasions.

2024 Bottom Line
Unless we see a huge ascension out of Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers is the unquestioned best target on the team behind tight end Mark Andrews. Andrews is an important piece of the puzzle here because in the nine games he was fully healthy last year, Flowers averaged a lowly 8.2 half-PPR points per game. This also coincided with Lamar Jackson's most voluminous passing season of his career. The 5'9", 182-pound WR is very likely to have a better sophomore season, but his fantasy ceiling is unfortunately capped. Consider him a WR3 and expect some down weeks.

Week 16 at San Francisco 49ers

Zay Flowers caught one of just two targets against what should’ve been a vulnerable Jacksonville pass defense on Sunday night as the Ravens ran their way to a lopsided victory. Flowers ended up with just seven yards, his worst game of the season. Still, he scored three touchdowns over his previous two games combined, and he has at least seven targets in seven games this year.

This week, Flowers should get back on track against the 49ers. San Francisco ranks 17th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, making that position the best way to attack the top seed in the NFC. Still, the Baltimore passing attack has been super inconsistent, making it hard to trust any of the receiving weapons outside of Isaiah Likely. Flowers has upside in what should be the game of the week, but consider him a risky WR3 option.

Week 14 vs. Los Angeles Rams

Zay Flowers was held to just 25 yards receiving against the Chargers before the bye last week, but he still put up big fantasy numbers. He had five receptions and a touchdown in the passing game, and added a late-game 37-yard touchdown run to seal the victory for the Ravens. It was good to see Flowers find the end zone twice, as he’d only hit pay dirt once prior. Flowers is heavily used in the offense with 80 targets this season, but he’s been inconsistent in his production and often catches balls at the line of scrimmage.

This week, Flowers faces a Rams defense that ranks seventh in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Despite the tough matchup, Flowers has a nice floor as a target hog in this offense, particularly in PPR leagues. Fantasy managers should consider him a fringe-WR2 or solid WR3 option this week.