Sony Michel

Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Sony Michel finally showed signs of life in Week 3 where he broke off two long runs and eclipsed 100 yards rushing for the first time since the 2018 AFC Championship Game. As a reminder, Michel totaled 56 total rushing yards through the first two weeks so the 100-yard performance is not likely to be a regular occurrence. Michel's outlook is further dampened by the the fact that the Patriots continue to ramp up Rex Burkhead's workload and James White should return to the lineup this week. At the end of the day, Michel's situation is a total mess to project for fantasy in any given week, making him an unreliable starting option and heavily dependent on scoring touchdowns to return value.

Week 2 at Seattle Seahawks
Sony Michel resumed his role the lead early-down running back for New England in Week 1 by totaling 37 yards on 10 carries with a goal-line touchdown. While the touchdown salvaged Michel's day, his usage presents red flags. He carried the ball five fewer times than Cam Newton, only received three more carries than teammate Rex Burkhead and a rookie named J.J. Taylor got four carries of his own. Michel offers nothing in the passing game, thus volume and goal-line work is critical for his fantasy value. While it looks like Michel should retain some goal line looks, he will obviously lose some to Newton. Michel makes for a risky start at his current usage.

Fantasy Upside
Sony Michel’s role is no mystery. He is a between-the-tackles power runner who provides almost nothing in the passing game. This role carries some value in New England. Michel should receive enough volume to be a viable fantasy starter in games where New England experiences a positive game script. Michel’s 247 carries last season was good for ninth among running backs and his 45 red-zone touches also cracked the top 10. The addition of Cam Newton is great for Michel’s fantasy prospects as it should bring greater offensive efficiency to the Patriots’ offense as a whole, meaning additional red zone and goal-line carries. Michel will have RB2 upside in games where the Patriots are favored or adopt a run-heavy game plan.

Fantasy Downside
Michel’s fantasy upside is limited by injury and game script concerns. Michel had offseason surgery for a fractured foot and only shed his walking boot earlier this month. Michel also missed time due to a knee issue in 2018. It is too early to tell whether Michel will be 100% for training camp, let alone Week 1. Michel also has significant game script concerns. He offers nothing in the passing game and only had a 38.2% snap share last season, meaning he comes off the field on every third down and even more frequently when New England is trailing. Michel will be a glaring hole in your lineup in any game the Patriots fall behind and favor James White on the field as their designated receiving back. Finally, Newton will almost certainly get goal line carries that would normally go to Michel now that he will be under center for the Patriots.

2020 Bottom Line
Michel is a situational fantasy play due to his lack of versatility. He should rack up enough carries, yards and touchdowns to be a viable flex play, but his floor is very low and fantasy drafters will almost surely be frustrated with him some weeks. Michel should be drafted as a RB3 that gets a small bump in standard leagues.