Sony Michel

Week 17 vs Miami Dolphins
Sony Michel hasn't been terribly elusive through most of 2019, ranking 35th in PFF's elusive rating among 47 running backs with at least 100 attempts. Michel looked like a new man last week against the Bills, posting the 2nd-highest elusive rating among 27 running backs with at least 10 attempts. Fantasy owners who were hopeful that Michel's touchdown upside on a high-scoring offense would overcome his inefficiency must be disappointed with his two total fantasy RB1 weeks and his RB28 overall ranking through Week 16. Michel's touch rate has been above 70% for the last two games, while he's maintained a healthy 42% snap share, encouraging signs for him this week and in the playoffs.

The Patriots' Week 17 opponents the Miami Dolphins rank 24th in aFPA to running backs, and given Miami's overall defensive struggles, the Patriots should score fast and early. If the Patriots defense with its second-ranked aFPA to quarterbacks continues its season-long effectiveness, a lopsided score in New England's favor appears to be a likely outcome. That would bode well for Michel's fantasy output, making him a good bet for an RB2 finish, and his DFS pricing ($4,900 on Draftkings, $6,400 on FanDuel) make him an attractive & inexpensive option.

Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sony Michel took a Week 14 opportunity against a Chiefs rushing defense that projected to be excellent and punted it into the stands. He finished as the RB71 for the week, though to be fair, it's hard to have fantasy relevance on five total carries and one target. Michel has played in under 20% of the offensive snaps in each of the past two games, and he's only ranked as RB1 for the week in two games in 2019.

Michel matches up with a Bengals defense that's 12th in aFPA against running backs, 27th in quarterback aFPA, and 21st in wide receiver aFPA, and these defensive strengths and weaknesses that don't bode well for Michel. The larger issue is that Michel simply hasn't been efficient, and ranks 26th in elusive rating among 27 running backs in with at least 130 carries (per PFF). Touch volume can overcome inefficiency, but since that's no longer a sure thing, Michel becomes a risky start even if your expectation is for high-upside RB3 numbers.

Week 13 at Houston Texans
Sony Michel turned a matchup with a strong Cowboys defense into the RB22 performance for Week 12, rushing for 85 yards on 20 attempts. Like a running back who doesn't get targeted very often, Michel still ranks just outside the top 12 in total touches at the position, and his touch rate of 58.1% is the highest among starting running backs. Preseason expectations for Michel as an inexpensive RB1 haven't been met, as he's returned low-end RB2 value through 11 games.

Michel draws a Week 13 matchup with the Texans that shouldn't give you a reason to stay away, as their aFPA to running backs ranks 19th out of 32 teams. Vegas projects the outcome as a close game with above-average scoring, favoring the Patriots by 3.5 points, which should equate to red-zone opportunities and a steady reliance on the running game throughout by the Patriots. Michel has had relatively poor touchdown production despite being among the top eight running backs in red zone attempts, but his continued high snap share keeps him in the RB2 conversation for this week and moving forward.