Sony Michel

Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sony Michel took a Week 14 opportunity against a Chiefs rushing defense that projected to be excellent and punted it into the stands. He finished as the RB71 for the week, though to be fair, it's hard to have fantasy relevance on five total carries and one target. Michel has played in under 20% of the offensive snaps in each of the past two games, and he's only ranked as RB1 for the week in two games in 2019.

Michel matches up with a Bengals defense that's 12th in aFPA against running backs, 27th in quarterback aFPA, and 21st in wide receiver aFPA, and these defensive strengths and weaknesses that don't bode well for Michel. The larger issue is that Michel simply hasn't been efficient, and ranks 26th in elusive rating among 27 running backs in with at least 130 carries (per PFF). Touch volume can overcome inefficiency, but since that's no longer a sure thing, Michel becomes a risky start even if your expectation is for high-upside RB3 numbers.

Week 13 at Houston Texans
Sony Michel turned a matchup with a strong Cowboys defense into the RB22 performance for Week 12, rushing for 85 yards on 20 attempts. Like a running back who doesn't get targeted very often, Michel still ranks just outside the top 12 in total touches at the position, and his touch rate of 58.1% is the highest among starting running backs. Preseason expectations for Michel as an inexpensive RB1 haven't been met, as he's returned low-end RB2 value through 11 games.

Michel draws a Week 13 matchup with the Texans that shouldn't give you a reason to stay away, as their aFPA to running backs ranks 19th out of 32 teams. Vegas projects the outcome as a close game with above-average scoring, favoring the Patriots by 3.5 points, which should equate to red-zone opportunities and a steady reliance on the running game throughout by the Patriots. Michel has had relatively poor touchdown production despite being among the top eight running backs in red zone attempts, but his continued high snap share keeps him in the RB2 conversation for this week and moving forward.

Week 11 at Philadephia Eagles
Sony Michel faced a difficult matchup against the Ravens in Week 9 and matched his lowest snap share of the season at 22%. New England passed on 74% of its offensive plays, the third-highest rate among all teams in Week 9, which was a result of some combination of offensive game-planning and Baltimore taking a quick and early lead. Michel saw just two targets along with his four rushing attempts and finished the week as the RB43, dropping his overall standing to RB26 through Week 10.

Michel returns from his Week 10 bye to a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles that's even less friendly than the Ravens were in Week 9. Philadelphia is allowing just 21.6 aFPA to running backs, 9th-lowest among all teams. Only one running back has rushed for over 65 yards against the Eagles in 2019, and that was Ezekiel Elliott in Week 7. Philadelphia has actually been middle-of-the-pack against receiving running backs, allowing the 14th-most receptions and 16th-most receiving yardage to the position, which stands to benefit James White and Rex Burkhead more than Michel. Additionally, this matchup screams for a pass-heavy game script by Josh McDaniels, as the Eagles 26th-ranked 38.5 aFPA to wide receivers stands in stark contrast to their running back aFPA. Starting Michel as anything more than an RB3 is a heavily touchdown-dependent plan that I'd look to avoid.