Fantasy Upside
Chris Godwin was surprisingly able to play in Week 1 last season after tearing his ACL in Week 15 of the 2021 season. He missed some time at the start of the season due to a different injury, but when he returned he was pretty dominant. Godwin saw at least six targets in all 14 games after returning from injury, including at least 10 targets in eight of those games. He also topped 50 receiving yards in all but two games in that stretch, with at least five receptions in every game. That essentially came out to double digits every week in fantasy, which is incredible consistency. He should maintain a similar target-heavy role heading into 2023.
Fantasy Downside
The obvious downside to Godwin’s value heading into this season is the change at quarterback, going from Tom Brady to likely Baker Mayfield. Godwin managed to see a lot of targets last season, but that’s because Brady led the league in pass attempts with 733. In fact, that was an NFL record for pass attempts in a season. It’s hard to see the Bucs leaning that hard into the passing attack once again, which will no doubt lead to less production for Godwin. It’s also worth noting Godwin has never been a strong scoring threat, failing to hit double digit receiving touchdowns in any of his six seasons.
2023 Bottom Line
Godwin is still a very talented player, and should be heavily targeted still, although his numbers will likely be down from a season ago. Godwin’s high-volume role suits him better for PPR formats than for standard leagues, especially given how he doesn’t find the endzone consistently. A lot of Godwin’s value is tied to how well Mayfield (or possibly Trask) ends up playing this season. But it’s hard to imagine Godwin having the same success he had under Brady. Godwin should be viewed around the WR30 range.
