• A.J. Dillon

  • RB
  • , Green Bay Packers
  • 23
  • 0 lbs
  • 0' 0"
Week 6 Projection
  • Week 6 Projection
  • Dfs Projection
  • $4900
  • 8.28
  • 3
  • $5400
  • 6.91
  • 3
  • $11
  • 6.91
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Scouting report

by Joe Redemann

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 6 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 6 at Bears
The Chicago Bears allow the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the running back position, which dampens the outlook for the Green Bay Packers' team RB2 – A.J. Dillon – substantially. Dillon has begun to increase his receiving volume in recent weeks, and will find himself carrying the ball to preserve lead back Aaron Jones in blowouts, but it's hard to expect much out of him here. Our models project Dillon as fantasy's RB35 in a bye-week riddled Week 6.

by Joe Redemann

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 5 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Green Bay Packers' backup running back A.J. Dillon typically only gets extra work when his team is blowing another out of the water and they want to protect lead runner Aaron Jones' health. That explains Dillon's Week 4 usage, where he got 15 carries. He's still a highly efficient rusher, but inconsistent workloads and little-to-no receiving work make him a risky play in all but the deepest leagues. Our models project Dillon as Week 5's RB46 in what should be a closely contested matchup – and therefore a reduced workload for Dillon – against the Cincinnati Bengals.

by Joe Redemann

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 4 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 4 vs. Steelers
Like his backfield leader Aaron Jones (questionable, ankle), A.J. Dillon enters the pre-Week 4 practices with an injury. The second-year rusher suffered a back injury in Week 3 that has limited him so far, but it doesn't seem that he will need to miss time. That said, Dillon is averaging just over six touches and about 30 scrimmage yards per game and will be going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. The Black-and-Yellow are limiting opposing fantasy running backs to the second-fewest schedule-adjusted points to date, which makes Dillon a dicey option. He's outside our top-50 at the position this week.

by Joe Redemann

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 3 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 3 at 49ers
A.J. Dillon enters Week 3 with back-to-back 3.1 half-PPR point performances under his belt to date, totaling just nine carries for 37 yards and two catches for 15 yards. Dillon has been efficient enough with his minimal workload, but he won't be stealing work from Green Bay Packers lead rusher Aaron Jones without some sort of injury.

With the ninth-toughest schedule-adjusted defense for fantasy backfields on tap in the San Francisco 49ers, Dillon is a fringe top-50 fantasy back. He's worth keeping on your roster, but there are betting options for a starting lineup spot in this game.

by Joe Redemann

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 2 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 vs. Lions

When the game gets out of hand, the backup running back – who isn't much of a pass-catcher – isn't going to see the field much. That was the case for A.J. Dillon and his Green Bay Packers in Week 1, where negative game script derailed any chance for the second-year bruiser to earn touches.

This week, against a much easier opponent, the game is expected to get out of hand in Green Bay's favor; a line making them 11.5-point favorites encapsulates that perfectly. This should lead to some garbage time work for Dillon that would prop him up even beyond our projection this week of RB39 for Dillon.

by Joe Redemann

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 at New Orleans
You might expect that A.J. Dillon, firmly entrenched in the co-pilot seat of the Green Bay Packers backfield, wouldn't be a usable fantasy football option in most weeks. Luckily, you'd be wrong, even in this daunting matchup against the New Orleans Saints' second-toughest defense against fantasy backs. Our models project Dillon for 11.6 touches resulting in 55 yards from scrimmage and 0.2 touchdowns – nothing to write home about, but the 36th-best running back projection for Week 1.

by Joe Redemann

GB RB A.J. Dillon - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
The Packers declined to acquire meaningful competition for backup running back A.J. Dillon, despite allowing previous team RB2 Jamaal Williams to walk in free agency. This vacated an average of 34% of the team’s running back rush attempts over the last three years – a role that Dillon should absorb the majority of. In his 2020 rookie campaign, Dillon posted 3.6 yards after contact per attempt – the sixth-highest rate among 78 running backs to rush 45 or more times. He also forced a missed tackle on 37.0% of his rushing attempts, which was easily the top rate among the same.

Fantasy Downside
With Aaron Jones re-signed and still likely to tote the rock 200 or more times, Dillon is unlikely to be the primary back in any phase of usage. In 2020, Jones monopolized RB opportunities in the red zone (57.1%) and on clear passing downs (non-first downs of seven or more yards to go; 45.6%). Dillon saw just 6.0% of RB opportunities in the red zone and 13.3% on obvious passing downs, as well as just two targets overall (1.8% RB target share) last season. He’ll have to convince the coaching staff he’s developed into an all-around player to prevent Jones from consuming virtually every 2021 Packers running back opportunity.

Bottom Line
By virtue of being the only Packers running back besides Jones with significant contract or draft capital investment, Dillon should see a major workload increase in his second season. That said, he may end up limited to goal-line and change-of-pace work if the Green Bay coaching staff doesn’t see receiving improvement from the 2020 second rounder. Our models project Dillon to settle in as a middle-to-low RB4 for fantasy football, right in the same range as his ADP (RB41; late 10th to middle 12th-round pick).

A.J. Dillon news