• Aaron Jones

  • RB
  • , Green Bay Packers
  • 27
  • 205 lbs
  • 5' 9"
PtsRuYdsRuTDRecRecYds
2.290213
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Scouting report

by Joe Redemann

GB RB Aaron Jones - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 at New Orleans
It's hard to ever rank Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones outside of your top-10 within a week, but matchups like this put him closer to the backend of that group. The Packers' top rusher is our ninth-best fantasy back in this contest, as our models project him for 58.8 rushing yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 12.6 carries, as well as 3.6 receptions for 27.0 yards and 0.1 air scores. The major downside in his profile this week is a tough matchup with the New Orleans Saints' staunch front-seven, the second-toughest run defense this week. His fantasy ceiling might be a little lower than some peers, but the reliability of his production is hard to completely avoid.

by Joe Redemann

GB RB Aaron Jones - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Over the last two seasons, Aaron Jones has operated as the Packers’ primary running back – averaging 14.6 rushes per game for 72.9 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) and 0.8 touchdowns and 4.4 targets per game for 3.2 receptions, 27.6 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns. In 2019 and 2020, Jones finished as the fantasy RB2 and RB5, respectively, in half-PPR formats. Each season in the NFL, he has gained more receiving work and rushing volume, becoming a true every-week fantasy star. Earlier this offseason, the Packers allowed backfield-mate Jamaal Williams to walk in free agency and extended Jones on a four-year, $38 million contract that guarantees he’ll be the team’s workhorse for the next two seasons.

Fantasy Downside
Much of Jones' fantasy star turn has depended on sustained high-end yardage efficiency (5.5 yards per attempt rushing in 2017, 2018, and 2020) or scoring efficiency (28 touchdowns on 444 touches across 2018 and 2019). A volume of touches in the 260-plus range is all-but-guaranteed, but Jones' yards per attempt could slip and he might not fall into double-digit touchdowns to cover for that loss. If that happens, he likely ends up a more mortal fantasy RB2 than a superlative, league-winning RB1.

Bottom Line
Jones is poised for yet another top-five finish among fantasy backs in 2021, despite the turmoil on the rest of the team. The Green Bay offensive line has averaged a top-six ranking in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards over the last four years and should continue to pave the way for Jones. Jones is being selected as the RB10 overall (early second round), but our models project him closer to the RB6 or RB7 – giving him excess value if you can get him at ADP.

by Richard Mejia

GB RB Aaron Jones - Week 17 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 17 at Chicago

Jones had a solid game last week against the Tennessee Titans as he carried the ball 10 times for 94 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for 14 yards. It was a weird game for Jones who surrendered more touches and production to rookie AJ Dillon. Jones was dealing a knee injury prior to the game but sat out for a bit with a new hip injury. Week 17 could be more of the same for Jones, as he should still see plenty of work, but we would not be surprised to see Dillon handle more carries as Green Bay attempts to preserve Jones for the playoffs. Jones is still a solid RB1 this week.

by Richard Mejia

GB RB Aaron Jones - Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 16 vs Tennessee

Jones went off last week against the Carolina Panthers as he ran the ball 20 times for 145 yards and one touchdown. Jones also caught 3-of-4 targets for 13 yards as he carried the Green Bay offense against a surprisingly stout Carolina defense. With the Panthers focused on pressuring Aaron Rodgers, Jones was given free rein all game long and absolutely terrorized this defense.

Jones will face the Tennessee Titans in Week 16, who currently rank 18th in aFPA this season. Jones has seen plenty of work all season long, and it appears his workload is increasing as we approach the end of the NFL regular season. Jones will continue to eat and if the touchdowns continue to come, he’ll be a no doubt elite RB1 this week.

by Richard Mejia

GB RB Aaron Jones - Week 15 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 15 vs Carolina

Jones had a down game last week against Detroit, as he carried the ball 15 times for 69 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for six yards. Jones still managed to out-touch Jamaal Williams 17-10, however the fact that there is still a question of backfield touches this late in the season is curious. Jones continues to see plenty of work; however, it is clear that his value as an elite RB1 does not hold without touchdowns.

The Carolina Panthers bring a difficult matchup for Jones as they rank 9th in aFPA to RBs this season. Jones has seen at least 15 total touches in the last five of seven games, so his efficiency, not his workload is what will come into question. We’ve said it all year long, Jones will only go as far as his touchdowns will take him, so even as a solid RB1 this week, managers should be wary of his endzone touches.

by Richard Mejia

GB RB Aaron Jones - Week 14 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 14 at Detroit

Jones had an excellent game last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, as he carried the ball 15 times for 130 yards, one touchdown and caught all three of his targets for 18 yards. Jones was having a relatively quiet game all up until shortly before the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter where he busted free for a 77-yard touchdown run.

Jones has a mouth-watering matchup this week against the Detroit Lions who rank dead last in aFPA to RBs this season. Let us not forget Jones’ best fantasy day of the season came in Week 2 against these very same Lions who gave up a ridiculous 236 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns. It is feasible that Jones comes close to approaching these numbers, but regardless, he should be in store for monster production as an elite RB1 this week.

by Richard Mejia

GB RB Aaron Jones - Week 13 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 13 vs Philadelphia

Jones had a middling game last week against Chicago, as he carried the ball 17 times for 90 yards. Much like it has gone since coming back from injury in Week 9, Jones’ production has not come close to what it was in the first four games of the season. Jones still saw ample opportunity with 17 carries and two targets; however, his level of fantasy production is almost exclusively touchdown-dependent.

Week 13 brings another rough matchup, as the Philadelphia Eagles are ranked 11th in aFPA to RBs this season. One thing to monitor in this game is the workload split between Jones and Jamaal Williams. Last week the backs saw a true 50-50 split as Williams also carried the ball 17 times, however, he was more productive with 73 yards and a touchdown. Jones will continue to see volume and that should mean more scoring opportunities. Keep Jones in your lineups as an RB1 in this one.

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