Over the last two seasons, Aaron Jones has operated as the Packers’ primary running back – averaging 14.6 rushes per game for 72.9 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) and 0.8 touchdowns and 4.4 targets per game for 3.2 receptions, 27.6 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns. In 2019 and 2020, Jones finished as the fantasy RB2 and RB5, respectively, in half-PPR formats. Each season in the NFL, he has gained more receiving work and rushing volume, becoming a true every-week fantasy star. Earlier this offseason, the Packers allowed backfield-mate Jamaal Williams to walk in free agency and extended Jones on a four-year, $38 million contract that guarantees he’ll be the team’s workhorse for the next two seasons.
Much of Jones' fantasy star turn has depended on sustained high-end yardage efficiency (5.5 yards per attempt rushing in 2017, 2018, and 2020) or scoring efficiency (28 touchdowns on 444 touches across 2018 and 2019). A volume of touches in the 260-plus range is all-but-guaranteed, but Jones' yards per attempt could slip and he might not fall into double-digit touchdowns to cover for that loss. If that happens, he likely ends up a more mortal fantasy RB2 than a superlative, league-winning RB1.
Jones is poised for yet another top-five finish among fantasy backs in 2021, despite the turmoil on the rest of the team. The Green Bay offensive line has averaged a top-six ranking in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards over the last four years and should continue to pave the way for Jones. Jones is being selected as the RB10 overall (early second round), but our models project him closer to the RB6 or RB7 – giving him excess value if you can get him at ADP.