Week 1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Tyrell Williams enters his first season with the Detroit Lions as the clear-cut top wideout on the team. He missed the entire year after opting out of the 2020 season. When we last saw him in 2019, he caught 42-of-64 targets for 651 yards and six touchdowns. These are underwhelming numbers that don’t really give confidence that he’ll be able to suddenly become a target hog in an offense. Remember, just because an average wideout is the top name in an offense, doesn’t mean that he’ll receive a high target share.
Williams has a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that ranked 14th in aFPA against wideouts last season and now gets back elite pass-rusher Nick Bosa. The upside with Williams is that the Lions will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game-script as they play catch-up against the 49ers. Still, leaving Williams on your bench or monitoring him on the waiver wire looks like the prudent move until we see how usage shakes out in this offense. Keep an eye out for rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown as well.
Fantasy Upside
Tyrell Williams has shown significant upside at times throughout his five-year career, including 1,059 yards for the Chargers back in 2016. Since then, he’s had inconsistent targets and inconsistent results until signing with the Raiders for a big-money deal last offseason. Williams had six touchdowns last season and is a true outside threat, so it’s possible he’ll enter the season as the starter, which should yield at least a high enough floor to be fantasy relevant.
Fantasy Downside
Williams signed that big money deal a year ago – four years, 44.4 million dollars – but Over the Cap shows he can be released as soon as next off-season with zero dead money. That means Williams will very likely be fighting for his roster spot as he tries to recover from a lost season where he was on and off the injury report, missed two games, and wound up with just 651 yards on 42 receptions. He’ll have a lot of competition this year with Nelson Agholor and rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards vying for snaps.
2020 Bottom Line
Keep an eye on the depth chart as the season draws closer. If Williams can hold off the youngsters, he will have value at his current, undrafted ADP in most league formats. He’s risky to count on, but he’s one of the few players you can get in the last round of drafts that at least has a shot at the top spot on the depth chart.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
In Week 16, Williams finished with four receptions on four targets, 82 yards, 46 air yards, 13% of the team targets, 34% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR35.
The Raiders are motivated to win because they still have a slim chance of making the playoffs. A lot of pieces would have to fall into place but it is still mathematically possible.
Williams practiced on Wednesday but missed Thursday’s practice due to ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis. On Friday, the Raiders announced Williams will play this week. He will matchup against the Broncos defense that is ranked tenth worst against wide receivers, per our schedule adjust fantasy points metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a fringe half PPR WR3.
Week 16 at Los Angeles Chargers
In Week 15, Williams played 96% of snaps, had two receptions on three targets, 45 yards, one touchdown, 22 air yards, 8% of the team targets, 9% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR33. Williams was able to find the end zone but only finished as a WR3 with a score. He hasn’t had 7 or more targets since Week 4. His low floor and low ceiling combination make him a risky start in championship matchups.
The Chargers are the second-best defense against wide receivers, per our schedule adjust fantasy points metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a fringe half PPR WR4.
Week 15 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
In Week 14, Williams played 76% of snaps, had three receptions on four targets, 35 yards, 49 air yards, zero touchdowns, 12% of the team targets, 20% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR64. Williams started the season with a touchdown in five straight games played but has not found the end zone in his last five games. On Thursday, Offensive Coordinator, Greg Olson, said William’s plantar fasciitis is, “a pretty significant injury, but he’s battling through it.”
The blueprint for beating Jacksonville is attacking them on the ground. They are eight best against wide receivers, per our schedule adjust fantasy points metric, but they are second to last against running backs. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a mid-range half PPR WR4 this week. Given Williams’ plantar fasciitis, his low floor makes him a risky start in the fantasy semifinals.
Week 14 vs. Tennessee Titans
Since Week 8, Williams hasn’t scored a touchdown and has only topped 50 yards once. He is always a threat to catch a long touchdown pass but comes with a low floor. The Titans are the 18th best defense against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a low-end half PPR WR4.
Week 13 at Kansas City Chiefs
In Week 12, Williams had two receptions on six targets, 18 yards, 87 air yards, zero touchdowns, 18% of the team targets, 44% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR74. Williams started the season with a touchdown in five straight games played but has not found the end zone in the last four games.
The Raiders are on the road and only implied for 20.5 points. The Chiefs are the sixth-best defense against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a high-end half PPR WR4. Williams generally has a low target floor but may be targeted more with Hunter Renfrow out with a broken rib and punctured lung.
Week 12 at New York Jets
In Week 11, Williams had four receptions on four targets, 82 yards, 62 air yards, zero touchdowns, 14% of the team targets, 33% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR26. Williams has only topped 90 yards twice this season but has scored a touchdown in five out of five games played.
The blueprint to beating the Jets is through the passing game. The Jets are second to last against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. With the assumption of rational coaching, Jon Gruden should get his receivers involved early and often. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a mid-range half PPR WR2. He is always a threat to catch a deep ball for a touchdown.
Week 11 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
In Week 10, Williams had three receptions on five targets, 25 yards, 54 air yards, zero touchdowns, 16% of the team targets, 30% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR59. Williams has only topped 90 yards twice this season but has scored a touchdown in 5 of 7 games.
The Bengals are thirteenth worst against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. With the assumption of rational coaching, Jon Gruden should feature Josh Jacobs more than the wide receivers. The Raiders are favored by 11 points at home and are implied for a week high 29.75 points. Gameflow is very difficult to predict in the NFL but on paper, this matchup looks better for Jacobs than Williams. However, Williams has shown it only takes one big play to put up a good fantasy performance. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a high-end half PPR WR3.
Week 10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
In Week 8, Williams was shut down by shadow coverage specialist, Darius Slay. Williams had three receptions on four targets, 48 yards, 60 air yards, zero touchdowns, 13% of the team targets, 23% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR49.
The Chargers defense is better against wide receivers than running backs. They are eleventh best against wide receivers but seventh worst against running backs, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. With the assumption of rational coaching, Jon Gruden should feature Josh Jacobs more than Derek Carr and the wide receivers. However, the Raiders may be forced to pass more than they would like if they find themselves down by multiple touchdowns in the first half. This scenario seems unlikely, based on the Chargers being favored by one point, but game flow is very difficult to predict in the NFL. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a low end range half PPR WR3.
