Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers rank 10th in aFPA to WRs, and only the Chiefs have a higher implied team total this week, with the Chargers expected to score 28.5 points. Keenan Allen did not practice Thursday with a knee issue. That needs to be monitored, as it would significantly increase the ranking for Tyrell Williams this week. If Allen is active, Williams should not be anywhere near lineups with his extremely low target counts.
Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Proceed cautiously with the Chargers offense this week, despite the fact that they lit up the Chiefs and Bills in the first two weeks of the season. The Rams defense is most certainly not the Chiefs or Bills. A low implied team total of 20.5 points is also cause for concern. The Rams are first in fantasy points allowed to WRs, with less than 60 yards given up to the position each of the first two games, with no touchdowns. Granted, it was against Derek Carr and Sam Bradford at QB, but this is not a week to have any confidence in a Chargers WR not named Keenan Allen.
Week 2 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills lost 47-3 to the Ravens last week. Enough said. Keenan Allen kicked butt in Week 1 against the Chiefs, torching them for 8-108-1 on 11 targets, but Mike Williams looked good too. A solid 5-81 day puts this Williams in the driver's seat to be the Chargers WR2 this season and a red zone threat. That's not going to leave many targets for Tyrell Williams, who only saw five in Week 1. It's a good match-up on paper, but game script could hurt Williams' targets if the Chargers get up early on the Bills. It's still likely a risky play due to lack of volume.
Week 1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers have the sixth-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 25.75 points. The Chiefs were dead last a season ago in aFPA to WRs. With Hunter Henry out for the season and Antonio Gates not listed as the starter for Week 1 at tight end, there are plenty of vacant targets last season for somebody to pick up behind Keenan Allen. However, the uncertainty in the target pecking order renders Williams a non-starter in redraft leagues until this WR depth chart sorts itself.
Fantasy Upside
Williams wasn't able to duplicate his 1,000-yard 2016 season, but he added 728 yards and four scores as heralded rookie Mike Williams, the Chargers' first-round pick last April, battled a back issue all season long. As Bleacher Report noted, "Tyrell Williams looks slow, but he has build-up speed and is able to get deep due to his size and ball skills. He routinely gets deep opportunities that most slot receivers don't enjoy."
Fantasy Downside
B/R added, "He's not the most agile or the quickest, and his ability to run after the catch suffers because of it."
2018 Bottom Line
Williams is a solid player, especially for what the Chargers ask of him. So even though Mike Williams will get every opportunity to improve on his 11-catch rookie season and move into the starting lineup (if healthy), Tyrell will still be a factor—perhaps as a utility player capable of working both outside and in the slot.
Week 17 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot, which means you can safely start your fantasy options for this team in Week 17. Tyrell Williams faces an Oakland defense that is just 24th in aFPA to WRs. However, the Raiders have been extremely stout against WRs over the past four weeks, surrendering no touchdowns to the position and the second-fewest yards. Given the Week 17 landscape with many WRs not playing a full game, Tyrell Williams could be an adequate FLEX flier.
Week 16 at New York Jets
The Chargers go cross-country to face the Jets, with the season on the line for Los Angeles. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite with an implied team total just over 24 points this week in Vegas. The Jets are only 27th against WRs in aFPA, and the loss of Hunter Henry at TE could mean more volume for Tyrell Williams.
In games Hunter Henry saw fewer than 5 targets, Tyrell Williams saw 6 targets in those contests vs. only 2.6 targets per game when Henry saw 5+ targets. However, Williams didn't do much with the targets, with only one game over 60 yards in that split. He's a boom-or-bust desperation FLEX option in Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers are red hot and go into Kansas City in a game Saturday that will greatly decide the division race. The Chiefs are second-worst against WRs in aFPA; however, Kansas City has tightened up its secondary in the last four weeks, allowing just the 15th-most yards to receivers in that span and only one touchdown. Tyrell Williams busted a long score last week, but his weekly consistency makes him nothing more than a dart throw in deep leagues for Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Washington Redskins
The Chargers have the second-highest implied team total this weekend in Vegas at 26.25 points, and Washington is only 18th in aFPA to WRs. However, Tyrell Williams had only 8 yards last week. No WR for the Chargers has been consistently fantasy relevant outside of Keenan Allen. In the fantasy playoffs, Williams is not a starting consideration.
Week 13 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Chargers are surging with 82 points in their last two games, and now they get a revenge game against the lowly Browns, as the Chargers were the only team Cleveland beat last year. The Chargers have the highest implied team total of the week at 28.75 points. Mike Williams is likely out. All of this adds up to Tyrell Williams being a desperation FLEX option in deeper leagues this week. His big-play ability is still there. But he is very, very risky.
