Week 9 vs Detroit Lions
Williams has played five games this season and scored a touchdown in every game. In Week 8, he had three receptions on six targets, 91 yards, lead the team with 137 air yards, one touchdown, 20% of the team targets, and 49% of the team air yards.
Detroit cornerback, Darius Slay, is expected to return from a hamstring injury and will most likely provide shadow coverage on Williams. This is a slight downgrade for Williams but he has shown the ability to make big plays regardless of the matchup. The Lions defense is eighth-worst against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. This game has the second-highest over/under (50.5). 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a mid-range WR2.
Week 8 at Houston Texans
Williams missed two weeks with a foot injury but is expected to play this week. Williams has a favorable matchup against the Texans. Their defense is fourth worst defense against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as the Half PPR WR35.
Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears in London
Another week, another Tyrell Williams touchdown. He has scored a touchdown in every game this year. It’s a good thing he continues to score because his fantasy numbers would be atrocious without them. Through four weeks, he is the half PPR WR13 but 44% of his points have come from touchdowns. Negative regression could hit soon. In Week 4, he had three receptions on seven targets, 36 yards, one touchdown, 23% of the team targets, and 62% of the team air yards.
Williams has not practiced this week and is questionable to play in London against the Bears. Their secondary is tenth best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. If Williams plays, he is a risky start. The Raiders are only implied for 17.75 points, so Williams’ touchdown streak is likely to come to an end. Monitor his status closely as we approach kickoff on Sunday.
Week 4 at Indianapolis Colts
Williams has scored a touchdown in all three games. It’s a good thing he has been scoring because it has saved fantasy owners from bust performances. In Week 3, he only had three receptions on three targets, 29 yards, one touchdown, 9% of the team targets, and 9% of the team air yards.
Williams is the best wide receiver but Carr’s favorite target is Darren Waller. Against the Vikings, Waller had 41% of the team targets and 41% of the air yards. Williams draws a tough matchup against the Colts who are third-best against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Williams ranked as the half PPR WR34. The Raiders could find themselves down by more than a touchdown but Carr appears content with using Waller as his primary check down receiver.
Week 3 at Minnesota Vikings
Williams scored in the first quarter against the Chiefs but didn’t do much in the second half. He finished as the Half PPR WR26 with 13.1 fantasy points. He had five receptions on seven targets, 46 yards, one touchdown, 18% of the team targets, and 30% of the team air yards.
Williams is the Raiders best wide receiver but draws a tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. Shutdown cornerback, Xavier Rhodes, will most likely shadow Williams throughout the game. Game script is very difficult to predict in the NFL but it is worth noting the Raiders are road underdogs (+8) and might be forced to throw more often than normal to stay competitive. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as the Half PPR WR24 and is worth flex consideration.
Week 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Williams took advantage of Antonio Brown’s absence. He finished as the half PPR WR16 with 19.5 fantasy points. He had six receptions on seven targets, 105 yards, one touchdown, 27% of the team targets, and 58% of the team air yards.
The Kansas City secondary is #bad as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has them ranked fifth-worst in the NFL. The Raiders could find themselves behind by multiple touchdowns, which would benefit Williams. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has him ranked as the half PPR WR19 and is worth flex consideration given the matchup.
Week 1 vs. Denver Broncos
Tyrell Williams was looking like a fringe starter in the flex position until the Antonio Brown was traded to the Patriots. The trade boosted Williams up to PPR WR31 in Week 1 with a median projection of 11.5 fantasy points in John Paulsen's rankings. However, the Broncos are better than average against wide receivers as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has them ranked 13th best in the NFL.
Fantasy Upside
Williams was with the Chargers in 2018 but will now be playing alongside Antonio Brown as a member of the Raiders. Williams’ broke out in 2016 with 69, nice, receptions, 1,059 yards, and seven touchdowns. However, he only averaged 42 receptions and 690 yards over the last two years.
4for4’s director of forecasting, John Paulsen, set a median projection of 58 receptions for Williams. An increase in receptions makes sense because Williams does not have to compete for targets with former teammates Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Also, the Raiders have the highest number of vacated targets, 359, from last season.
Fantasy Downside
Last year, Williams was the perfect example of a boom or bust player. He finished as a WR1 in two games, a WR2 in one game, a WR3 in one game, and a WR4 or worse in 12 games. 36% of his total yards and 60% of his total touchdowns came in a two-game span. This made him a decent asset in best-ball formats but caused headaches for traditional season long managers who had to set weekly lineups.
2019 Bottom Line
Increased opportunity could help Williams become a more consistent player. However, he is unlikely to match his career-high numbers from 2016. He is a good late-round target in best-ball drafts but may continue to cause headaches for managers who have to make weekly start/sit decisions.
Week 19 at New England Patriots
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. The Bolts have the second-lowest implied team total of the eight remaining teams, however, at just 21.5 points. New England ranks 19th in aFPA to WRs. However, only Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are reliable plays among Chargers pass catchers.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
The Chargers offense will be at full strength in Week 17 with a chance to go from wild-card playoff team to home field advantage and playing against a potential lame duck coach in Denver's Vance Joseph. This is an offense to trust in the final week of the regular season, with an implied team total of 24 after being installed in Vegas as 6-point favorites. The Broncos are ranked third in aFPA to RBs, which could funnel more passes to Chargers receivers, with Denver ranked just 15th in aFPA to WRs. However, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen are the primary pass catchers in this offense, and the rest of the Chargers pass catchers have been an afterthought when those two have been healthy this season.
