Week 11 DraftDay Optimal Plays

Week 11 DraftDay Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Nov 16, 2013

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

At this time of the year, we’re reaching the point that there’s some actual reliable NFL data for us to implement into our projections. There’s data after Week 4, too, but it’s really hard to separate that from noise. It might be a trend, or it might not, but it’s difficult to decipher.

Whereas I stick primarily to my preseason rankings in the beginning of the year, season-long research is pretty much out the window by Week 11. It’s still okay to be bullish on underachieving players, but we can’t have the same confidence that a player like Ray Rice will bounce back as we did earlier in the year.

Further, midseason injuries start to affect how we should view value. Whereas almost everyone was healthy early in the year, now there are situational values—Jarrett Boykin and Andre Brown-esque players—who need to be considered in isolation.

But the numbers from 2012 and prior just don’t hold the same weight that they did in September. If you’re still holding out hope that, say, ELI MANNING will return to form, maybe daily fantasy football just isn’t for you. 


Week 11 Optimal Values

QB Nick Foles vs. WSH $17050

Foles has been the hottest quarterback in the NFL the past two weeks. He had only 228 yards last Sunday, but he also threw the ball only 18 times. That’s 12.7 YPA, and it’s the second straight week he’s reached that number.

Foles has also remarkably thrown for a touchdown on 21.7 percent of his 46 throws during the last two games. That number will drop, but he’s still a high-upside play this week against the Redskins. He makes for a great pairing with DeSean Jackson in tournaments.


RB Matt Forte vs. BAL $17350

Forte is an elite runner who will see a heavy workload this week, but he’s just the fifth-priciest running back on DraftDay. Note that DraftDay prices their running backs and wide receivers strangely, so you’ll need to scroll down the Value Report quite a bit to find legitimate options at both positions.


WR Eric Decker vs. KC $10100

Twenty-three receivers cost more than Decker on DraftDay, including Jarrett Boykin, Danny Amendola, and Cecil Shorts. Playing the Chiefs or not, Decker is still a big receiver in the NFL’s best offense. He’s probable to score in every game he takes the field. Decker is probably a better heads-up than tournament play.


TE Vernon Davis @NO $10850

Of the five tight ends priced above $10k, there’s no one less than $100/point more than Davis. With 15.9 projected points, no one near the top of the tight end value charts comes close to matching Davis’s projection. He can be used in both heads-up leagues and tournaments.


Week 11 Optimal Lineups

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