Splash Sports Survivor Picks Week 5: Circa Survivor & NFL Pool Plays (Cowboys over Bucs)

Oct 07, 2026

Splash Sports Survivor Picks Week 5: (Cowboys over Bucs)

USA TODAY Sports

My picks went 3-0 last week as the Vikings, Ravens, and Seahawks all came out victorious. My trap game, the Bears, didn't pan out, but congratulations if you went with Chicago despite my trepidation. In the Splash Sports $21M Survivor World Championship pool, Week 4 was comparatively quiet as heavy public sides managed narrow or outright victories.

With four teams gone, two teams on a bye, and pools getting smaller, Week 5 is an interesting one. There are no double-digit favorites but still some quality options to choose from.

We have the assistance of Sharpstack's EV Tool to guide us through this process, highlighting the win percentages of each NFL team and the optimal path, plus the option of a custom one if you are feeling it.

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Here's a look at the whole board for Week 5, and I'll get into my favorite picks and traps below.

Favorite Favorites

Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay (-8.5)

This contest has the highest spread along with the highest win percentage (73.6%), so it will likely be the most popular as well. While this is a good spot to use Dallas, Thursday night island games can be tricky, plus the Cowboys also have a nice matchup in Week 8 against Arizona. That all being said, this pick is likely safe, as they are at home, unlike every other team favored by more than 3.5 points in Week 5.

Bengals @ Miami (-7)

Cincinnati is a touchdown favorite over a Miami team that has yet to score more than 13 points through four games. The Bengals' win percentage is 69.8%, with the second-highest popularity predicted on the Week 5 slate. They're not exactly save-worthy, as they are 2-2 with a leaky defense, but this is a solid spot to use them.

Value Favorites

Texans @ Tennessee (-7.5)

Road games can be deterrents for some pickers, and this one has some risk but will be popular this week due to a lack of true stand-out options. Both teams are 0-4, but the Texans are a superior team here and should beat their division rival. The market is giving them a 71.1% chance to win, and 12.9% of the public will likely roll with them.

Lions @ Arizona (-5.5)

We have another road game here, but Detroit should be safe against a Cardinals team that lost 31-7 at home to Seattle earlier this season and is without tackle Paris Johnson Jr., who is out for the season with a biceps injury. The Lions are 5.5-point favorites in this one, with a win percentage of 65.8%. Their future value has gone down a bit over the last few weeks, but they are more valuable than the Bengals down the road.

Traps (that are favorites)

Commanders vs. New York

I can see the appeal here, as we're looking at a division rivalry game at home for Washington where they are favored by 3.5 points. However, this one is just too sketchy for me, with the QB situation still not settled for the Commanders and a squirrely 3-1 Giants team.