Fantasy Football Week 4: Breakout Model Picks
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We’re back again looking at the breakout model picks after Week 3. Let’s give some details on how this works, but the article last week has a more thorough walkthrough.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The table below shows pre-snap field position on the x-axis, and air yards on the y-axis. The numbers in the table show the average number of half PPR fantasy points that a target in that specific bucket earned in 2025.
So, I made a machine learning model that looked at every target from 2021 to 2025. It uses pre-snap field position and air yards to predict how many fantasy points a given target is expected to earn. And now that we know how many fantasy points every target *should* earn, we can compare those expected fantasy points to what actually happened.
The graph below does that for every player through three weeks of the season. Players far below the dotted line are underperforming their expected points and are potential buy-low candidates. And players above the line are overperforming their usage and are potential sell-high candidates.
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