Monotone's Week 6 Best Bets: Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets

Coming off +6.4 and +5.1u weeks, I look forward to building on our momentum today. With multiple totals set in the 50's, there are a plethora of exciting matchups to focus on. We've had a lot of success attacking prop markets this season, and I see plenty of opportunity on Sunday's slate.

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NFL Week 6 Props

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Dak Prescott o1.5 Passing TD’s -140

Pretty simple handicap here; I’ll take the home quarterback to put up some points in the game with the highest total on the slate (52.5). The Cowboys just flat-out can’t run the ball, and they get one of the toughest tasks against the Lions' rush defense. We’ve seen Dak go over this number in three straight games with 350+ passing yards in two of those games, last year against the Lions he went for 350 & 2 TDs.

Via RJ Ochoa, “The Lions defense has used base personnel on an NFL-leading 50.8% of snaps so far this season. They are the only defense north of 50%.

Against base personnel defenses this season, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has not been sacked and is 13 of 19 for 163 yards with a touchdown with a 60% dropback success rate”

The defensive line is incredibly beat up, and I trust the Lions to come out with a sound offensive game plan. The Cowboys should be put in a position where they need to respond, and I just don’t think Zeke/Dowdle will be able to get it done in this brutal matchup. There should be plenty of passing opportunities in the red zone, and I trust Dak to take care of business in what should be a very high-scoring game.

Risk 1.4u to win 1u (-140 FD, -145 365, -150 DK/MGM) playable to -155

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Over 56.5 Rushing Yards -115 DK

Collab with Noonan, who did the write-up.

This line is surprisingly low, as Gibbs has cruised over this in each of the past three games (78, 83, and 84 yards). Heading into Detroit's Week 5 bye, head coach Dan Campbell spoke about how Gibbs is "about to take off," and he's "getting his legs back under him" after missing time in training camp with a hamstring injury.

There's not a meaningful metric that's in Dallas's favor in this spot. They're among the bottom five in rushing success rate, EPA per rush, early down success rate, YBCO/att, you name it. C Frank Ragnow is back for the Lions, so the best run-blocking offensive line in the league is fully intact.

It's the big flashing mismatch when handicapping this game, and I think the Lions wisely lean into it. We know DeMarcus Lawrence and Marshawn Kneeland are out, and it's looking like both Micah Parsons and Eric Kendricks will miss this one as well. I think Detroit is able to do whatever they want offensively, and Gibbs is a massive part of that. He's out-snapped David Montgomery in every game this season and has handled a larger rushing share in two of the past three games. I'd play this anywhere below 60 with no issue.

Risk 1.15 to win 1u

Derrick Henry o16.5 longest rush -115 DK 1u

Henry o82.5 rushing yards -110 DK 0.5u

It’s pretty easy to make an argument for the guy that is currently leading the league in rushing yards. Despite facing some incredibly tough teams like Kansas City, Dallas, Cincinnati, and Buffalo, they have still managed to look strong, with Henry leading the way. Even with the crazy volume Derrick Henry leads all RBs with +229 rushing yards over expected via NextGenStats.

Like going back to the well with the longest rush props against the Washington defense, which has allowed every single starting running back (and every backup with 3+ carries) to cash their longest rush props. We now get Derrick Henry, who leads the league in rushing yards in a prime matchup as 6.5-point favorites. Henry is over this number in four straight games with at least a 29+ yard rush in each one.

Risk.1.15u to win 1u with Noonan. Playabale to 18.5

Risk 0.55u to win 0.5u playable to 85.5

Jake Ferguson 4+ Receptions/Dak Prescott 250+ Passing yards -134 FD

Ferguson 4+ Receptions/Zach Ertz 3+ Receptions -105 FD

Risk 0.67u to win 0.5u FD/365 playable to -150

Risk 0.53u to win 0.5u FD/365 playable to -140

Going back to Ferguson, but this time in an alt-line capacity. We saw his 4+ reception number priced in the -290/-300 range last week, and now we’ve seen a full reception increase but really no adjustment to the alternate line. Ferguson is coming in with the highest target share of his career, posting 7, 7, and 11 over his last three games. With a banged-up WR room and huge potential for passing, I love doubling-dipping on both Prescott and Ferguson in a correlated parlay.

Ertz was an ideal target as another high-floor target earner on a team forced to throw the ball. 3+ catches in 4 of 5 games, with his only miss last week coming off an 8-target game. Love the upside on his receptions up to 5 in a game where Washington won’t be able to run (BAL only team sub-3 YPC allowed this week). Likely will continue to see short passing at one of the highest rates in the league, and Ertz is a great target. Let me know if you have any questions on how to play these with the books you have available!

Josh Palmer under 32.5 receiving yards -119

Joint play with @Connor Allen

I expect minimal passing success and passing volume from the Chargers here given how well the Broncos defense has played and Harbaugh's run-first mentality. The Chargers are also getting back two of their starting offensive lineman and will likely try and force the issue on the ground.

Palmer plays the majority of his snaps on the outside meaning he will draw one of Patrick Surtain or Riley Moss. Both players have played incredibly well this season with Moss ranking 7th in PFF's cornerback grades. Only 6 WRs have cleared 30 yards in 5 weeks and four of them were predominantly slot wide receivers.

Beyond a tough matchup, Palmer's average depth of target this year is just 8.8, very similar to McConkey's (8.7) while QJ's is all the way to 17.5. According to Fantasy Points Data, in the 3 games Palmer has played, he has just a 14.9% first-read target share which ranks 4th on the Chargers. This is behind QJ (31.9%), McConkey (25.5%) and Hayden Hurst (15%). The coaching staff/Herbert don't really seem to be too interested in designing plays to Palmer and even if they do, the targets are relatively close to the line of scrimmage.

Risk 1.19 units to win 1 unit

Austin Ekeler o19.5 receiving yards -110

Ekeler u44.5 rushing yards -116

Risk 0.82u to win 0.75u -110 MGM, -112 builder, -115 CZR, playable to 21.5

Risk 0.87u to win 0.75u -116 builder, -120 DK/CZR playable to 40.5

Ekeler has been the prime example of efficiency both on the ground and through the air. So far this season he’s averaging 7.9 YPC carries on the ground and 13.7 through the air.

One of the main reasons why I think the efficiency through the air is more likely to be sticky than on the ground is mostly usage based. While traditional RBs are there for dump downs, Ekeler is running legit routes out of both the backfield and slot. While he hasn’t been as highly involved as the backup it’s very hard to see those routes not drastically improving without Robinson, especially considering he’s already cashed this number in every game posting 30, 22, 47, and 52 yards in the only loss of the year. Washington is top 3 in screens passes thrown and passes sub 5 yards, Ekeler will be a big part of that gameplan, especially against such a high-level rush defense.

The highest rushing total the ravens have allowed this year is 46 yards… I don’t see Ekeler being thrust into a bigger role and immediately beating that number. They allowed the Lowest yards per carry and total rushing yards per game allowed, and I think McNicholas could also sneakily be involved more than people think in terms of caries, with Rodriguez live to steal a couple as well.

Luke McCaffery o1.5 receptions -135 DK

With Noonan - Risk 1u to win 0.74u (-135 DK, -122 rivers, -145 builder/CZR)

Over in 3/5 games including the only trailing gamescript/loss of the season (his debut vs TB 3-18) where he's posted very strong separation grades from both PFF & Fantasy Points A.S.S This feels like an overreaction to Noah Brown being back in the lineup, that’s much more impactful for Dyami/OZ on the outside than McCaffery in the slot. No Brian Robinson, banged up Ekeler and McNicholas going against the best rush defense in football leads me to believe there will be more passing. The Ravens have been susceptible to the slot & Luke should be able to take advantage with such a low total.

JK Dobbins o16.5 carries -108 FD

Dobbins has been extremely efficient averaging 6.1 YPC and the 7th most rush yards over expectation per carry.

He’s only over in this number in 1/4 games but he was already taking over Gus Edwards's workload, and should see a much bigger workload with him ruled out this week. He’s faced two of the top 5 defenses in the league in terms of YPC and rushing yards allowed per game, while missing their two best O-linemen.

The Broncos rank 30th in passing EPA and have the best corner trio in football right now. This is one of of the most overmatched WR vs CB matchups of the season and I expect the Chargers to lean on the run no matter the gamescript. They already enter this game 31st in pass rate over expectation and off a bye week I’m expecting a run heavy gameplan from Harbaugh/Roman. Deciding between carries and yards was tough because he’s a bit of a home run hitter, but the volume I think is pretty guaranteed here. Was the first thing I had highlighted this week; was waiting thinking it might get bet down but no dice.

Risk 0.54u to win 0.5u -108 FD, -115 DK, -120 365/MGM

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