Monotone's Week 4 Best Bets: Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bets

After another small profit in Week 3 we look to carry that momentum into Week 4 for this exciting slate. After a couple weeks on tape we finally have a better idea of these teams' identities and preferences, and this is the perfect time to take advantage in the betting market. Check out my favorite plays for this weekend's action!

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NFL Week 4 Props

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Tyler Conklin o2.5 Receptions -117

While Tyler Conklin started a little slow, he’s built a little momentum coming off a huge 93-yard performance against the Titans. Conklin is one of only three tight ends with an 80+ percent route participation this year, so the underlying metrics are showing there is plenty of opportunity. On tape, it also looked like Rodgers was constantly looking for Conklin as a security blanket when he was under pressure. This will be necessary against a Broncos team coming in second in the NFL in pressure rate.

This profiles as an especially interesting matchup because Patrick Surtain will be on the outside defending Garrett Wilson. Surtain has held all of DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, and George Pickens under 30 receiving yards in three straight games. Mike Williams still isn't back to a full-time workload, and while Allen Lazard is solid, he’s not a high-level receiver. There is plenty of volume to go around.

Risk 1.28u to win 1u (FD, -120 DK/CZR/MGM -117/-125) playable to -150

George Pickens o46.5 receiving yards -115

Love backing Pickens here, who is in a prime position to break out against a bad Colts defense. Despite an extremely run-heavy gameplan, Pickens is still over this number in 2/3 games this year, with his one miss coming against lockdown corner Patrick Surtain. Pickens is the clear alpha on his team with extremely limited competition, with Austin/Muth getting underneath dump downs & Van Jefferson on the outside as the least impressive WR2 in football. Pickens currently has a 25% target share & an impressive 2.65 YPRR (6th). He’s also 12th in deep targets and 8th in ADOT this season, his downfield usage means even with more limited volume we can still go over this number.

The Colts have played 57.1% single-high this season, which Pickens crushes with a 57% first-read target share & 2.90 YPRR per FantasyPTS. We just saw Moore & Oduzne crush this number, Romeo Doubs with Malik Willis, and both Nico Collins and Tank Dells even with Mixon running 27 times. Love the ladder upside here for one of the best downfield threats in the game in a great matchup.

Risk 1.15u to win 1u (-115 MGM, -123 CZR, good at 50.5)

Jayden Reed o48.5 Rec Yards -113

We saw exactly what the Jordan Love X Jayden Reed combo could do in their first game of the season, posting 4-136-1 on 6 targets. While we’ve seen a run-heavy game plan with Malik Willis, I expect a much more pass-heavy script with Love back in the lineup.

I would say Reed is built in a lab for this matchup against Minnesota, which possesses the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL, Reed leads the Packers with a 27.3% TPRR when Jordan Love is blitzed. They also run more cover 2 than any team in the NFL, which is perfect for a guy like Reed with a 6.6 ADOT running short high-percentage routes over the middle.

I doubt Love is at 100% in terms of mobility, so even if the scheme doesn’t force him to throw short it’s likely they get him comfortable with some easy completions/screens w/ a guy like Reed who has huge YAC upside. Despite having the lowest ADOT of all GB receivers he still had the highest yards per target. Route share is up from 61% last year to 75% this year, but he still went for 80+ yards in both games against Flores & the Vikings last week.

With @Connor Allen - Risk 1.13u to win 1u (49.5 on CZR/DK/MGM -110-120 good, playable to 52.5)

Khalil Shakir o46.5 Receiving Yards -115

Shakir has gotten off to a great start establishing himself as the WR1 in a fairly uncrowded room. He has been one of the most productive slot WRs in the NFL (his 152 yards rank 3rd) While the BAL D ranks 25th in yards allowed to slot receivers. Despite averaging over 13 yards per target dating back to last year he has the lowest drop rate in football. BUF has looked to go run-heavy but just showed last week they can pivot off that gameplan against a strong rush defense, and BAL currently comes in as the best in football. After a couple of games where they didn’t even have to throw in the second, I think we are getting a depreciated number.

Risk 1.15u to win 1u CZR (playable to 49.5 -115)

James Connor Longest Rush o15.5 Yards -115 DK

James Connor leads all backs in 20+ yard rushes dating back to the start of last season, and I expect those explosive plays to be on full display this week. While he’s over in 2/3 games this season, he gets a polar opposite matchup from the top-ranked Lions D-line last week. Washington has a really bad defense, especially against explosive plays. This year we’ve seen each RB eclipse 15+ longest rush with White, Irving, Singletary, Brown, and Moss all gashing this defense for an explosive play. The Cardinals will want to control time of possession, and when Connor is healthy he’s locked into the workhorse role. Absolutely love his chance for a big play with the heavy volume I’m expecting.

Risk 1.15u to win 1u (-115 DK/365 -120 MGM/ESPN. Play to 16.5)

Tyler Huntley o6.5 Rush ATT -104

Tyler Huntley o24.5 rush yards -114

Huntley is averaging over 8 rush attempts per start with 30+ rush yards in 8 of 11 games he’s played with 60% of snaps. Since he was just signed to this Dolphins squad, it's going to be an extremely simplified offense. Mike McDaniel is pretty sharp expecting him to lean into the one NFL skill his QB has (mobility). We could see some nasty read-option stuff with Achane in the backfield.

Last week, we saw Malik Willis go for 60+ rush yards in the matchup giving the Dolphins the exact rush-heavy blueprint to follow.

Titans run the 8th most man coverage and this should be a good opportunity for the mobile QB to supplement the offense on the ground without Tua. Should be a fairly slow game but the Titans' defense has played above expectation, if they can’t get things going with the scripted plays I think we see him turn to his legs. Not confident he has the accuracy to operate their quick strike precision offense.

Lines all over the place, o24.5 -120 ESPN/ -114 FD, -117 CZR preferred, good to 27.5)

Att 6.5 -104 CZR, good to 7.5 -110 or better)

Chase Brown o28.5 rush yards -110

I've been watching this number but it seems like it’s only going to creep up and up. Going back to the well after Chase Brown cashed for us last week despite a surprisingly bad trailing game script. He showed off those explosive runs, going for 62 yards on 7 carries. Coaching had talked the whole week prior about how this was meant to be a 50/50 split, and we finally saw more of this in action, it was especially nice to see them rotation drives after seeing Moss rip off a 20-yard run to start the game.

The biggest thing holding Brown back is the lack of pass protection ability & consistency. In higher leverage late-game situations, it’s easier to take him out, but in a projected leading game script, he should get plenty of opportunities to show off his skill. The Panthers' defense is bottom of the barrel, and Brown has been excellent in his limited usage, ranking second in PFF rushing grade and second in YPC. He’s gonna put up a crazy game once the Bengals play up to expectation, and I think this could be the breakout.

Risk 0.55u to win 0.5u (365, -120 MGM, -123 CZR, 30.5 DK, Playable to the FD 31.5 #)