Conference Championship NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
We started the NFL playoffs off HOT at 6-2 then came back to earth a bit with a 3-4 outing in the Divisional Round. I had some great handicaps and a few that couldn’t be more wrong. I thought DeAndre Hopkins would see an increased role in the playoffs, and the opposite turned out to be true, with Hollywood Brown taking a massive step forward in snaps while Hopkins had his lowest routes run rate since his first week on the Chiefs.
We nailed Jalen Hurts’ completions under, even with an uber-efficient outing; the late snow, and Saquon’s dominance helped us comfortably cash our bet. I played two pass attempt props that both flopped, with C.J. Stroud and the Texans implementing a run-heavy approach despite losing for the majority of the game. Jared Goff and the Lions also lost outright as 10-point favorites, and it still took Goff until the final drive to go over his pass attempt number. I got plenty wrong, but would play that one again if I had the chance.
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Conference Championship Player Prop Bets
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Isiah Pacheco U33.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Since returning from his early-season injury, Pacheco has been downright bad, averaging just 3.57 yards per carry with a 1.9% explosive run rate and having forced just 3 missed tackles on 54 rushing attempts. The Chiefs seemed to have noticed his lackluster performance as well. After a middling Week 14 performance where he ran the ball 14 times for just 55 yards (3.9 YPC) on a 58% rushing share, he has seen that number decline in four consecutive games (38% -> 33% -> 30% -> 24% last week). Even on limited work, his efficiency has not been very good with lines (carries/yards) of 9/26, 6/18, and 5/18 the last 3 games. He clearly isn't 100% and the Chiefs seem to be telling us that with his workload.
The Bills have gotten rinsed on the ground by a few big-time performances without Matthew Milano but on the season are 6th in EPA per rush and 14th in rushing success rate. By no means elite, but they likely can get the job done here. The Chiefs are also only 1.5-point favorites here, they could easily find themselves in negative game script at points throughout the game. With efficiency and workload concerns here, I like this down to 30 yards.
Per CSI, the Chiefs talked up Hunt multiple times after last week's game as well.
Risk to win 1 unit
DeAndre Hopkins u2.5 receptions (-120 DK)
I was completely wrong about the Chiefs saving Hopkins for the Postseason and a potential bump in playing time. In fact, it was the opposite, with Hollywood Brown seeing a massive spike in playing time while Hopkins ran just 13 routes, the same as Juju Smith-Schuster. Hopkins saw his lowest route rate (41%) since Week 8 which was his first game since being traded. With Kelce turning back the clocks, Xavier Worthy ascending, and Hollywood Brown seeing a big spike in playing time, Hopkins is, at best, the 4th pass-catching option here and is closer to Noah Gray and Juju Smith Schuster in terms of target outlook than the other 3 at this point.
I'm not convinced Hopkins plays enough to even see 3 targets let alone 3 receptions here.
Risk to win 1 unit
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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