Monotone's Wild Card Weekend Best Bets: NFL Playoff Player Prop Bets

Jan 10, 2025

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

After a successful regular season, our total currently sits at 121-76 +26.76u u for a 15.4% ROI, hitting 61.42% of our bets. It's been a fantastic season, and we still have plenty of opportunity in the postseason. We have a loaded slate of games for Wild Card Weekend, with plenty of different angles still available. My Commanders are finally back in the playoffs, and we are trusting a couple different guys that game, which should be the highest scoring of the weekend. Check out my favorite bets for this weekend's slate below.

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Wild Card Weekend Props

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Justin Jefferson/Puka Nacua 70+ receiving yards -112

Collab with my co-host @player_props breaking it down live right now!

Justin Jefferson has had significantly better numbers vs zone coverage this year (2.88 YPRR 7th) than man. He gets a Rams defense that has struggled in the explosive play department allowing the 8th most yards per receptions. Jefferson ranks 8th in yards per reception at 14.9, with a clear talent mismatch over the Rams corners. After a rough primetime game, I think we also see them get him going with some short-yardage easy completions early to ease Darnold in, but this should be fairly game script-proof. Jefferson landed 115 yards on 9 targets in their first matchup and I see a similar outcome tonight.

When Puka Nucua returned from injury in his first game back vs MIN people were concerned he was rushing back, but he posted an impressive 7-106 stat-line. In that game they relied heavily on Kyren with 23 carries, but I do trust the Vikings rush defense more than the pass defense. They will predictable be aggressive towards Stafford, who torched the Blitz earlier in the year. Puka leads the league in target share against the Blitz. Kupp hasn’t looked good since coming back, so no matter what adjustments occur, we can expect Puka to be a big part of the solution.

Risk 1.14 to win 1u -114 FD, -125 DK/365

Puka Nacua o0.5 rushing yards -115

Same logic as with Jayden Reed. Creative coaching staff with a player they’ve shown a willingness to use in the rush game. Combine that with a tough rushing defense, and you get the possibility of Nacua out of the backfield, especially if Kyren struggles with efficiency. Coaches empty the playbook this time of year, and I think we can capitalize on these low numbers.

Risk 0.6u to win 0.5u -115 365, -120 MGM, -125 CZR, -130 DK, -136 builder playable to 2.5 -130

Jayden Daniels over 45.5 rushing yards -114

After playing Daniels rushing UNDER in Week 18, we are buying back in on the over here in the playoffs. Every year, we talk about it, but per our former Colleague TJ Hernandez' research, "Since 2000, 28 QBs averaged 30+ rushing yards/game and made the playoffs.

In the playoffs, those QBs averaged about 6 more rushing yards/game than in the regular season."

The stats match up with what all of us witness in the playoffs every year. QBs who have a propensity to run already, run even more in the playoffs.

Daniels had a stretch in the middle of the season where he had an injured rib and wasn't as effective on the ground. During that 4-game stretch, he had just 18, 5, 35, and 52 rushing yards. Outside of that stretch, he has gashed opposing teams with his legs routinely, including 88 rushing yards against this Bucs team earlier this season.

The Bucs blitz a lot and try to get pressure, exposing themselves at times to longer runs if he escapes pressure, an issue that could cause problems here again.

Risk to win 1 unit -114 FD, DK, Builder, 365, playable to 50+

Jayden Daniels o8.5 rush attempts -114

In full games since getting healthy, he’s gone:

16-127 vs ATL
9-81 vs PHI
11-66 vs NO
9-34 vs TEN
7-74 vs DAL

Daniels leads the NFL in scrambles (25+ more than any other QB) and EPA generated on scrambles. When you get pressure on him, his first instinct is to escape the pocket, which is good for running against a Buccs team that is top 5 in blitz rate. When these teams squared off to start the season, Daniels ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards. While that kind of volume is hard to project, we saw them throw caution to the wind and run him 16 times vs Atlanta in their biggest game of the year.

I have concerns about Washington’s rush attack, and I’m expecting Bowles to stack the box and test Daniels as a passer. While this hurts the traditional run game, the additional dropbacks are great for scramble opportunities in addition to the designed runs he’s going to get. In a high scoring game the Commanders should be really dependent on their rookie sensation, I fully expected this line to be 9.5.

Risk 0.86u win 0.75u -114 builder, -115 CZR/DK/365

Justin Herbert (LAC) Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114

The Texans have one of the best run defenses in the league, but they've struggled with scrambling quarterbacks this season, allowing the highest quarterback yards per carry in the league at 6.7 yards.

Per Ben Solak, Houston's run defense has allowed -93 yards over expectation this season, second only to the Ravens. But against quarterback scrambles, they've allowed +100 yards over expectation; only the Giants and Panthers were worse. I think we see a designed run or two on top of 3-4 scrambles here for Herbert.

Risk 1.14 to win 1 FD/Rivers, -120 DK playable at 19.5 on CZR, Builder, ESPN, etc

Brian Robinson Jr. u57.5 rush + receiving yards -114

Austin Ekeler o18.5 rec yards -120

Brian Robinson took care of business against easier teams early in the season but has struggled more recently. When they faced the Eagles, he posted one of the worst games of his career, with two fumbles and only 24 rushing yards. He had a solid game against the Falcons, but couldn't get anything going last week against the Cowboys. With his ball security issues, any early problems could lead to more touches for the rest of the backfield.

The matchup isn't easy either, with the Buccaneers allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards of any team in the NFL. They are much weaker in the secondary, dealing with multiple injuries, allowing the seventh most passing yards. Vita Vea is one of the best interior linemen in the league, and Washington will likely be tested through the air.

Austin Ekeler returned last week after dealing with an injury; he immediately out-snapped Brian Robinson and took over the starting job. Washington's biggest problem in the second half of the season was getting off to slow starts in the first half, and Ekelers' receiving skill set makes him more appealing in negative gamescripts. I think his stock continues to rise, and Robinson loses touches in both the rushing and receiving game. The Buccaneers allow the 2nd most receiving yards to running backs in the NFL, and in their Week 1 matchup with the Buccaneers, Ekeler had 4 receptions for 52 yards. He should dominate third-down opportunities, and honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if he even competes with Robinson in the carry department.

BRob Risk 0.57u to win 0.5u FD playable to 55.5

Ekeler risk 0.6u to win 0.5u -120 DK. 19.5 FD playable to 20.5

Jayden Reed o1.5 rushing yards -110

Jayden Reed had a fantastic start to the season for the Packers but has slowed down a bit in the second half, leading to some discounted numbers. The biggest reason we’ve seen Reed slow down is because of their run-first approach behind Josh Jacobs, but they get a brutal matchup against the Eagles, who contain the run at an extremely high level. Matt LaFleur is one of the best coaches in football, and he will need to find ways to keep this Eagles' defense off balance. There will be plenty of Jacobs, but getting guys like Reed involved in jet sweeps and pitch plays will be a good way to keep them guessing.

When Jayden Reed faced the Eagles in the first game of the season, he posted 4 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, along with an additional 33 yards rushing. They have already used him creatively in the same matchup, and with the season on the line, I would continue to expect some creative looks. He ended the season over this number in 3 of his last 5 games, and with Christian Watson already ruled out, I would expect even more usage to go his way. The Packers are 4.5-point underdogs, and the game script should be ripe for the Packers to empty the playbook against a strong Eagles defense.

Risk 1u to win 0.91u -110 CZR, 365, -114 Builder, -125 MGM playable to -130

Puka Nacua o0.5 rushing yards -115

Risk 0.6u to win 0.5u -115 365, -120 MGM, -125 CZR, -130 DK, -136 builder playable to 1.5 -130

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