2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 9

Nov 01, 2023
2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 9

The breakout receiver model has been on an absolute tear all season, and Week 8 may have just been the best week in the model’s history. A whopping 17 underperforming players met or exceeded their model-based expectations last week, resulting in an astoundingly high hit rate. This week, things get tougher. Not only are the bye-weeks back, but many receivers have had titanic shifts in their quarterback rooms. The model’s results will need keen interpretation this week, so let’s dig right in.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.

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