Week 7 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Week 6 Recap: Week 6 was another profitable one with a little over 1 unit in the bank, putting us at over 13 units on the season. I’m not going to sit here and complain about profit, but it does bother me that this could have been a significantly better week. The morning game in England started off our day with a spoiled meat pie as Tannehill’s under cashed easily while Zay Flowers fell four yards short of his prop. I was absolutely bamboozled by Emari Demercado. Jonathan Gannon was talking about him as the lead back and beat reporters were speculating that he would lead the team in touches. It was all a fugazi. He not only wasn’t the lead back, but both Damien Williams and Keontay Ingram came in and out-touched him! What a trainwreck. That was almost a pure donation early in the first quarter. Ezekiel Elliott had 7 carries midway through the third quarter. He didn’t get a single carry the rest of the game somehow, despite playing well busting our over of 7.5 carries. Losing two coin-flips can shift an entire week from an insanely positive one to just a solid one. Last tidbit before we dive into Week 7, so far this season, I am 31-17 when betting unders (64.45%), and those continue to be my strongest looks each week. On to Week 7…
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Right now, $100 per unit bettors are up $1,307 just on my bets alone this season. When you factor in Ryan Noonan’s props, you would be up $2,662 blindly tailing! All of our bets are released in our subscriber discord, with multiple books available for every play. Subscribe HERE!
Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets
Week 7 is a unique point in the season where we have a legitimate sample (in NFL terms), but not all markets have properly adjusted for usage, matchups, and more in the player prop market!
Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) under 52.5 rushing yards (-110 Bet365)
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This is also widely available at other sportsbooks. I normally don't play anything this early in the week, even with a Thursday game, but this number probably won't be around tomorrow.
Jamaal Williams has been designated to return from IR and looks to be trending in after two limited practices this week. We know the Saints don't view Kamara as long-term workhorse, and with 41 total carries the past two weeks, they may lighten his load on a short week and Jamaal Williams returning. On top of that, the matchup is tough, with the Jags ranking 3rd in rushing success rate allowed so far this season (3.44 yards per carry allowed to RBs) and have allowed just two running backs to clear 50 yards. The Saints OL is shaping up to be very banged up heading into this one, with four of their offensive lineman on the injury report on Tuesday, three of them not practicing entirely.
There are a ton of outs here; I would play this to 48.
Risk 1 unit to win 1 unit
Calvin Ridley (JAX) UNDER 4.5 receptions (-125 at DK/MGM/CZRS)
Ridley has just a 15.6% target share against man coverage so far this season and the Saints play man defense at one of the highest rates in the league. He has also eaten against cover 3 defenses (saw over 40% of the teams targets against that) which the colts run a ton of and the saints ran that at one of the lowest rates in the league as well. On top of that, Lawrence looks to be truly 50/50 here and even if he does play likely won't be 100%.
Ridley has topped this in just two games so far this season and all of his high target totals have come against zone-heavy teams.
Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit, play to -140
Rachaad White (Tampa Bay) under 50.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Coming out of the bye Rachaad White saw a decrease in workload, seeing just 53.9% of backfield rushing attempts. The Bucs are shifting away from White being the workhorse after he has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry this season. He now runs into a sneaky-tough matchup with the Falcons ranking 1st in run D EPA, and just 3.78 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Their success rate metrics aren't quite as good but still above average.
We have White projected for 43 rushing yards in this spot and the floor is really low if his lack of workload holds.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
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