Week 13 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I believe to be the most significant inefficiency in the market: individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and concentrating on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

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Let's dig into Week 13's totals.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time they're posted in Discord.

Leans/Lines I'm Monitoring

Key numbers are incredibly important to totals and team totals. Again, all official plays will be posted in Discord first, so I'd advise getting in there if you haven't already done so.

Week 13 NFL Totals Bets

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San Francisco 49ers Over 26.5 (+120, DraftKings)

This is currently an alternate line, with 24.5 set as a widely available team total for the 49ers, but I'm willing to take it up to 26.5. I'm skipping 25 and 26 because they're dead numbers relative to a historical distribution of scores. Since 2000, teams have scored zero (0) points more frequently than they've scored 25. Over the same time frame, teams have scored 26 points 2.3% of the time, the 16th 'most common' score. You can bet over 24.5 at -110, but you're paying more than you should for 25 and 26.

The Eagles defense, a group that just played an insane 92 plays against the Bills last week, is the worst unit in this game. They're 18th in total expected points added (EPA) defensively and surprisingly poor in the red zone, allowing the league's fourth-highest touchdown conversion rate at 64.9%.

The 49ers are averaging 28.2 points per game and featured the league's top passing offense per EPA. They're among the top three offenses in points per drive (2.58), yards per drive (35.4), and percentage of drives that end in a score (45%), and they're efficient in the red zone, converting 61.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. The Eagles are incredibly susceptible to elite passing offenses if they're unable to collapse the pocket quickly, as we saw last week against Josh Allen and the Bills. I expect Kyle Shanahan will have no problem scheming up layups for Brock Purdy, who remains criminally underrated.

With Eagles' offensive tackle Lane Johnson trending towards playing, I trust that the Eagles will be able to move the ball as well, forcing the 49ers to keep their foot on the gas throughout. Also, I'm not currently concerned about the weather reports. We saw steady rain in last week's game against the Bills, which still went over comfortably.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.2 units on DraftKings

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