Week 12 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving! I know 4for4 betting subscribers did, going 5-2 on mine and Ryan Noonan’s player prop bets. Noonan went 2-1, and I went 3-1. We deserved a little bit of Holiday good luck after Week 11’s mishaps. We had some truly rough beats. The worst may have been Trevor Lawrence’s rushing prop. It was set at 14.5, and we got in on the under before reports came out about his lack of mobility. He had 1 rushing yard in the first half, and it looked like it was going to cash easily. Instead, Trevor played hero ball not once, but twice inside the 10-yard line against the Titans. On his last play prior to benching, he scrambled for a 5-yard touchdown, busting our under. Jaylen Warren outperformed Najee Harris by an immense amount, yet only received nine carries, one short of his carry prop of 9.5. It was nice to see Matt Canada be fired shortly after. We bet on Jordan Love’s completion prop of 36.5, and he had at least four completions of 25+ yards and one of exactly 36 yards. Sometimes, things just don’t go your way. We know that Denver struggles to guard tight ends, and Josh Dobbs has targeted his tight ends a TON so far this season in Arizona and Minnesota. If I told you that Viking's tight ends were targeted 11 times in this spot, what percent chance do you think Hockenson caught more than 5.5 of them? Josh Oliver saw four targets and caught all of them, while Hockenson saw the other seven and also only caught four of them. Brutal. Despite all of the outrageously close outcomes, we only finished down by a little over a unit. It was one of those weeks where if all of those games were re-played, we likely end up in the black way more often than not.
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Week 12 Player Prop Bets
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Aiden O'Connell (Las Vegas Raiders) under 199.5 passing yards (-110 Bet365)
This is widely available at all sportsbooks. Back to our old friend AOC in a spot that I expect will give him both efficiency and volume problems. He is coming off a career/season-high 41 pass attempts against Miami. Interim HC Antonio Pierce mentioned multiple times in the press conference afterward that they can't let that happen again and that they need to run the ball more. Now they run into a massive run-funnel team in the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs' pass defense has been stellar so far this season, ranking 2nd in PASS D EPA per play, holding half of their opponents under 200 passing yards, including MVP front-runner Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa.
I expect a run-heavy game plan from the Raiders here, regardless of the game script. It sounds strange, but I also don't expect the Chiefs to push the Raiders here. Gone are the days of the Chiefs boat-racing opponents having scored 30+ points in just two games so far this season. Especially with such a volatile receiving corps and a massive advantage on the ground, I fully expect the Chiefs to control the clock and run the ball with a ton of success in this spot.
Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Tyler Allgeier under 39.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)
I like this down to 35. Allgeier saw a season-low 24% of the rushing attempts last week as Bijan Robinson got more involved, and all of the word from press conferences has been that they want Bijan to continue to take on a bigger workload. On top of that, this is a tougher-than-average matchup against the Saints as underdogs.
Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Tommy Devito under 177.5 passing yards (-115 DK, MGM, MZRS, ESPN, fine at 175.5 at FD, too)
Tommy has one good game against the worst secondary in the league, and everyone forgets the atrocities he committed in the previous 2+ games. He is still very, very bad. He also really struggles against man coverage and the blitz. The Patriots play a high rate of man coverage, and against the blitz, Devito has averaged 2.7 yards per attempt this season. Bill Belichick has a long history of making inexperienced QBs' lives incredibly difficult, and I expect that to be the case here. This figures to be a slow-paced slugfest. The Patriots don't even know who is starting at quarterback and will probably try to skew run-heavy to slow down the game, regardless.
Devito will also be without OT Evan Neal and probably Darius Slayton as well.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) U12.5 carries (-130 FD, -135 DK, -139 CZRS)
Chuba was out-carried by Miles Sanders last week 11-10, and It seems like they want a pretty even rotation. They are 4-point underdogs to the Titans, presenting game-script concerns as well.
Risk: 1.30 units to win 1 unit
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