Week 9 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 06, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Chargers at Jets

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the single-game DFS breakdown for Week 9 Monday Night Football, featuring an intriguing clash between the Chargers and the Jets. In a game critical for the playoff aspirations of both teams, the Chargers aim to leverage what’s left of their speed and typical aerial prowess to finally get to .500, while the Jets could fortify their surprising season with a win that would vault them to within a game of the AFC East lead. Let’s dig into key strategies for DFS players tonight.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Chargers (-2.5, 21) @ Jets (+2.5, 18.5); Over/Under 39.5

The Chargers, carrying a 3-4 record into the heart of the season, arrive in New York with their offense operating at the league's eighth-fastest pace. Typically a passing attack that has been more deep ball oriented than most, averaging over five attempts of 20 or more air yards per game, they are now facing the reality of an increasingly depleted wide receiver group that may soon hit a breaking point. The loss of Joshua Palmer could potentially temper the team's aggressive downfield approach, which has been a signature under Justin Herbert's command. Nevertheless, their implied total of 21 points indicates that oddsmakers still regard their offense as capable of producing against a Jets team that has been among the stingiest in the NFL.

The Jets, poised to potentially ascend in the AFC East with Week 9 losses by the rest of the AFC East, are a complete mess wrapped in a winning record—their 4-3 record hides an offense that has scored 1.0 touchdowns per game over their last 3 games. You’d never know it, but they are more pass-heavy than average in neutral game scripts, but they’re slow, don’t throw deep (less than three deep passes per game), and don’t throw in the red zone (outside the top 20), mostly because they don’t even reach the red zone, ranking outside the top 20 in red zone plays per game. However, with a solid defense and a chance to exploit a Chargers team missing key offensive pieces, the Jets' implied total of 18.5 reflects yet another opportunity to compete and once again pull of an improbable upset.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Herbert, despite the adversity posed by an injury-plagued receiving corps, has metrics that remain impressive. He's seventh in catchable pass rate on the 10th-deepest average depth of target. He’s top 10 in per-pass, per-drive, and per-game efficiency. His mobility adds another layer to his game, averaging four rushes per game, including at least one red zone carry per game, underscoring a sneaky dual-threat capability. On top of the already strong passing numbers, the rushing is just enough to lift him into the elite echelon of quarterbacks in terms of opportunity value. He ranks third in expected fantasy points (xFP) per game and mirrors that with his actual fantasy points per game standing, a testament to his consistent production and efficiency.

Zach Wilson, on the other end of the spectrum, helms a Jets offense that has sputtered and limped through most of the season. Wilson’s languishing at the bottom of the charts in key passing metrics, with his catchable pass rate failing to crack the top 30. His propensity for risky throws has resulted in more passes charted as potential interceptions than touchdowns, a ratio that would make any offensive coordinator wince. He’s 32nd in adjusted yards per attempt, 33rd in fantasy points per dropback, and 31st in fantasy points per game. The juxtaposition of the Jets' winning record against Wilson's individual performance is honestly astounding.