Week 1: College Football Best Bets

Sep 01, 2023

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to Week 1 of college football here at 4for4! We are starting with an article or two per week for this season but hope to have full-fledged, year-round college football coverage in the very near future. I have spent almost all of my time covering the PGA Tour here at 4for4 and now at Betsperts Golf. Having played wide receiver in college and then coaching football down in Texas for a number of years, I am pumped to dig into my favorite sport to watch.

The plan for this year is to have a "Favorite Picks" article each Thursday or Friday and then a shorter article on Mondays for any games I am betting based on opening lines, which typically drop on Sunday afternoons. Similar to golf, there are tons of analytics that go way beyond the traditional football stats that have been around for years. As the season progresses I will be introducing these throughout the week as they are the foundation of my own college football betting system. With 119 teams making their 2023 season debut this week, let's jump into a few of my favorite plays.

*Make sure to check the 4for4 Discord for picks made throughout the week. Lines accurate at the time of publication.

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Louisville vs. Georgia Tech

Line: Louisville -7 Total: 48.5

Louisville and Georgia Tech will each kick off their season on Friday night in the Aflac Kickoff Classic at the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. In a unique twist, both head coaches are making their debuts at their respective alma maters.

The Cardinals were 8-5 last year and are coming off their first winning season since 2019. After former coach Scott Satterfield left for Cincinnati, the Cardinals turned to Louisville native and alum Jeff Brohm to take over the program. Brohm went 36-35 in his six seasons at Purdue and led the Boilermakers to four bowl games. It's safe to say this opener carries a little more weight for Brohm in his return home. "I mean, without question, my nerves will be going," Brohm said. "You want to do well, you want to try to win the football game, please a lot of people, and you want to get off to a good start.

While the Cardinals lose some key pieces on both sides of the ball, Brohm has a talented roster to work with after bringing in one of the top transfer portal classes in college football. In fact, according to 247s "Team Talent Composite," Louisville is starting the year as the 29th most-talented team. They made the biggest leap forward out of any team in the nation by moving up 30 spots from last year. They only had seven former four-star recruits on last year's roster but enter this season with 23. In total, they added 24 Division 1 transfers in the offseason and return the third most production on offense in the country.

As for Georgia Tech, they enter the season with newly minted head coach, Brent Key. After Geoff Collins was fired last year after starting with a 1-3 record, Key was elevated from offensive line coach to interim head coach for the remainder of the season. He led Tech to a 4-4 record to close out the year, including upset wins over Duke, Pittsburgh, and North Carolina. The players clearly bought into Key's approach, and he landed the job on a permanent basis in the offseason.

While the Yellow Jackets return 15 starters from last year, it is one of their new starters, Texas A&M transfer QB Haynes King, that is garnering much of the preseason attention. King, along with the entire offense, will be learning a new system under first-year coordinator Buster Faulkner.

This will be the third all-time meeting between Louisville and Georgia Tech, with the Yellow Jackets holding a 2-0 advantage in the series. These two teams last met on October 9, 2020, at Bobby Dodd Stadium, with Georgia Tech winning 46-27.

Louisville

While Louisville has mostly been a running team in past years led by dual-threat quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Malik Cunningham, the philosophy will shift this year as Brohm implements his pass-heavy approach. Brohm even joked at his introductory press conference about only "running the ball when we have to."

Leading the offense will be Cal transfer Jack Plummer, who will be the Cardinals starting quarterback. He threw for 3,095 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions last year for the Golden Bears. Before transferring to Cal, Plummer played three years at Purdue under Brohm. With his level of experience and familiarity with Brohm's system, the staff intends to use that advantage to build the offense around his skills.

The change to a more pro-style approach should benefit Louisville's running backs, led by Jawhar Jordan, who led the team in rushing last year with 815 yards and a sparkling 5.7 YPC (yards per carry). When injuries sidelined every other back, Jordan rushed for over 100 yards in four of Louisville's last five games, including the win over Cincinnati in the Fenway Bowl.

The new offense will force opposing defenses to show more respect for the passing game, which will, in turn, create more running lanes for Jordan and backups Maurice Turner (314 yds) and Wisconsin transfer Isaac Guerendo. "Going against teams last year, they had 8-man boxes, and you could just hear them calling our plays," Jordan said. "So it's kind of good that we're more versatile now."

At the other skill position of wide receiver, there is plenty of talent and competition. Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (31 receptions, 365 yds) is the leading returner and will start in the slot. Biletnikoff Award watch list honoree and Georgia State transfer Jamari Thrash was a daily highlight reel in fall camp and arrives in Louisville with over 1,700 career receiving yards on his resume. Three other transfers, along with physical sophomore Chris Bell, are all pushing for playing time.

In the trenches, the return of All-ACC performers Bryan Hudson and Renato Brown, along with part-time starter Michael Gonzalez, give the Cardinals a good foundation up front. Brohm further increased the talent pool by going into the portal and adding six offensive linemen with 150 combined career starts.

Defensively, Louisville's unit was statistically one of the best in the nation last year. Despite losing four of their top six playmakers, they have the potential to be just as good as last season's group.

Though they lost two NFL draft picks up front, DE Ashton Gillotte (six sacks) returns, as does the highly touted former Arizona State transfer Jermayne Lole, who was injured for the season in 2022. Co-defensive coordinators Ron English and Mark Hagen also bring in two transfers, Stephen Herron (Stanford) and Jeffrey Clark (Georgia State), who combined for 10 sacks last year.

Entering the offseason, the linebacking group appeared to be the main weakness of the defense due to the lack of experience and depth. At the end of fall camp, there are reports that this unit has dramatically improved. Sophomore T.J. Quinn was MVP of the Spring Game and looks to have locked down the starting WILL position. Oregon transfer Keith Brown and Miami Florida transfer Gilbert Frierson are battling returnees Jaylin Alderman, Jackson Hamilton, and Benjamin Perry for the other two starting spots.

Even with the loss of starting free safety M.J. Griffin to a season-ending injury, the Louisville secondary enters the year with a glut of players who have starting experience. 1st Team All-ACC cornerback Jarvis Brownlee returns along with three Power Five transfers who have started a combined 60 games.

Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets were one of the worst offensive teams in the country last year. Not only did they rank 124th in scoring offense, they were 108th in passing and 90th in rushing. The skill positions were wiped out by transfers and graduates, and considering their ineptitude, that was probably a good thing.

Key set about to remake the offense into a more efficient group. Not only did he hire a new offensive coordinator in Buster Faulkner, but he brought in a new quarterback in Haynes King, who threw for 1,579 yards along with 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions at Texas A&M, where he battled inconsistency and injuries.

Key expects a running back by committee approach with Dontae Smith (420 yds last year) and Louisville transfer Trey Cooley leading the way. The Yellow Jackets have a brand new group of receivers, with slot Malik Rutherford (225 yds) the only key returnee. They add transfers Chase Lane (617 yds, 3 yrs, Texas A&M), Dominick Blaylock (548 yds, 3 yrs, Georgia), and Christian Leary (Alabama), who are playmakers that add much-needed talent and speed.

Even though four starters return on the offensive line along with 66 career starts, this remains an underwhelming unit that lacks the talent to compete against the best of the ACC. With Haynes King lacking the dual-threat ability of last year's QB starter Jeff Sims, the run game will be hard-pressed to top last season's 3.7 YPC and 128th ranking in Run Success Rate.

Defensively, Georgia Tech is losing a ton of production in their front seven, including three All-ACC performers. The defensive line does return three starters but lacks an elite pass rusher with only 10 career sacks on the roster.

Incoming transfers will attempt to fill the void at linebacker as Ayinde Eley and Charlie Thomas and their combined 230 tackles last year departed for the NFL. Texas A&M transfer Andre White (139 tackles, 13 starts) will step in and start at the MIKE spot.

The Yellow Jackets' secondary is the strength of the defense, and they return three starters, including one of the best safeties in the ACC in LaMiles Brooks. He led the team in interceptions with three, along with seven pass breakups and 52 tackles while starting 10 games. Pro Football Focus graded him as the fifth-best returning safety in the country.

Prediction Center

Louisville holds a clear edge in talent, returning production, and skill level on offense. Expect the Cardinals to open up the pass by pounding the run with Jordan behind their experienced offensive line. With Georgia Tech running a base nickel package with five defensive backs on the field, Louisville should have plenty of chances to move the chains against a lighter front. The Yellow Jackets ranked 116th last year in Predicted Points Allowed (PPA) versus the run on defense. And that was with a front seven that had three All-ACC players who are now gone.

Another advantage for Louisville is that Plummer is well-versed in Brohm's system and has explosive receivers in Thrash and Huggins-Bruce. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is starting over from scratch on offense with a new coordinator and an inconsistent quarterback in King.

Finally, don't expect Georgia Tech to have much of a home-field advantage, with it playing more like a neutral-site game at the expansive Mercedes-Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta.

My numbers have Louisville winning this game by 11 points, and I expect them to be able to pull away and gain separation on Georgia Tech in the second half.

Pick: Louisville -7 Caesars (Up to -10)

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Fresno State at Purdue

Line: Purdue -3.5 Total: 47.5

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The Fresno State Bulldogs will travel over 2,200 miles to West Lafayette, Indiana, to take on the Purdue Boilermakers and their new head coach, Ryan Walters. Both teams lost major pieces on both sides of the ball, including at quarterback, where both dipped into the transfer portal to find new starters.

One of the best coaches in the country, Jeff Tedford, begins his fifth season at the helm for the Bulldogs. After starting last season 1-4, Fresno State ran the table the rest of the way, finishing 10-4 and bringing the third-longest FBS win streak of nine games into this season. Their strong finish last year resulted in a Mountain West title and culminated with a victory in the LA Bowl. Fresno State lost 78% of its production on offense and only return 11 starters on both sides of the ball.

The defending Big Ten West champion Boilermakers open the Ryan Walters era with many new faces and philosophies in place. Walters comes over from Illinois, where he was the defensive coordinator for the last two years and was responsible for turning the Fighting Illini into one of the best defensive units in the country. For the first time since 1982, Purdue will have a head coach with a defensive background. Purdue lost 65% of its offensive production and also return only 11 total starters.

Fresno State

After last year's offensive coordinator, Kirby Moore departed for Missouri, Tedford elevated Pat McCann, who was the Bulldogs' wide receivers coach and passing coordinator last year. They also lost All-American and record-setting quarterback Jake Haener, who is now in the NFL. In steps Mikey Keene, who transferred from Central Florida, will take over as the starter. In 11 career starts at UCF, Keene had an 8-3 record with over 2,300 yards to go with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He should fit perfectly as a pocket passer in McCann's system, but the weapons around him are unproven.

Not only did Fresno State lose their top passer, but also their top running back and top three receivers, who combined for 2,581 yards. This will also be the first year since Tedford was hired that the ultra-productive Ronnie Rivers or Jordan Mims aren't in the backfield. Into the void steps Malik Sherrod, who last year rushed for 428 yds (5.4 YPC).

The receiver position has the most question marks on offense as the leading returnee is 5'7" slot Erik Brooks, who had 391 yards last season. Speedy four-star Boston College transfer Jaelen Gill (1,092 career yds) has been turning heads in practice and has locked up one of the other starting spots. After those two, inexperienced underclassmen and transfers will fill out the depth chart.

Over the past decade, the offensive line has typically been the main weakness of the Bulldog offense. In Haener's three years, he was sacked 75 times. The four linemen that each started the last six games of last season all return and bring with them a combined 63 career starts. With the offense being so inexperienced, the line will need to step up early and build cohesion until a rhythm can be developed.

Seven starters return in Kevin Coyle's 4-2-5 defense, including five of the top six up front. The defense is led by preseason All-MWC linebackers Levelle Bailey and Malachi Langley, who combined for 156 tackles last year. The secondary might have two of the best corners in the Mountain West in Cam Lockridge and Carlton Johnson. The safety position is the weak area, with both starters needing to be replaced.

Purdue

Walters brought in Air Raid guru Graham Harrell of Texas Tech quarterback fame as his offensive coordinator. Since he became a full-time OC in 2016, Harrell's offenses have scored under 30 points per game just twice. Coming off Jeff Brohm's pass-heavy pro-style offense, there were some who wondered if bringing in a defensive-minded head coach would mean a shift in offensive philosophy at Purdue. The hiring of Harrell shows that Purdue still plans to air the ball out and put up a lot of points.

After the brilliant career of departed quarterback Aidan O'Connell, Walters dipped into the transfer portal to sign highly touted Texas transfer Hudson Card. He started five career games at Texas, throwing for 1,521 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. “It was hugely beneficial for him to get here in the spring. Not only from a schematic standpoint, but for the locker room as well. When you get transfers, the one thing you worry about is chemistry. It’s telling the way he went in and went to work,” Walters said.

The Boilermakers enter the season with good depth at the running back position led by former walk-on Devin Mockobee, who rushed for 968 yards and nine touchdowns last year. Backups Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Dylan Downing combined for another 549 yards.

Similar to Fresno State, Purdue loses their top two receivers from 2022 in Charlie Jones and tight end Payne Durham, who combined for 166 catches for 1,921 yards. T.J. Sheffield, Deion Burks, and Mershawn Rice return after combining for 84 catches for 912 yards last year.

Three starters return on the offensive line, including both tackles. Both guard positions are expected to be filled by transfers. Overall, the depth is solid as, including newcomers, they have a total of 92 career starts.

Defensively, Walters brings the 3-3-5 scheme that the Fighting Illini used to lead the conference in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game in 2022. He brought outside linebackers coach Kevin Kane with him from Illinois to be his defensive coordinator. “We'll be aggressive and strategic and try to create chaos for the quarterback on defense to try to eliminate explosive plays and keep points off the board. Hopefully, it will be a formula for winning football,” Walters said.

With only four starters returning from the 2022 squad, finding the right personnel will be a challenge as everyone adjusts to a new scheme. The defensive line will have a distinct SEC flavor as transfers from Arkansas, Auburn, and Vanderbilt fill the two-deep. While three starters depart, seven of the top 10 return from last year.

The linebacker position will take on a more aggressive role in Walters' defense with added emphasis on pass rush, which will hopefully force opposing quarterbacks into turnovers. In the back eight, two starters return at linebacker, and only strong safety team captain Sanoussi Kane returns in the secondary. They do add four Power Five conference transfers, but none were full-time starters.

Prediction Center

If you were to tell me that a defense led by Ryan Walters combined with Graham Harrell's Air Raid offense with Hudson Card at quarterback would only be a 3.5-point home favorite to a Fresno State team that was completely gutted on offense, I would not have believed you. Then again, that speaks to the respect that oddsmakers have for Fresno State head coach Jeff Tedford, who always seems to do more with less. Nevertheless, with the Bulldogs having to travel three time zones for what amounts to a 9:00 a.m. game, I expect Purdue to cover this spread with a variety of quick passes and a healthy dose of Devin Mockobee on the ground against an untested Bulldog defensive line.