Best NFL Division Odds Bets for the NFC
Late last week, sportsbooks started releasing odds for division winners. While it can be tough to tie-up money in NFL futures for over ten months, these markets are ripe for finding value. Part of why there is value is the level of uncertainty we have on what these teams will look like by the start of the season, as we haven't even hit free agency yet (and the draft is weeks away). Projecting what these teams will do this offseason is easier for some than others, but we also have a good idea of which teams are even armed with the required resources to make their desired moves.
Starting off with the NFC, I will be giving my favorite bet to make on each division winner. To be clear, these are not my picks to win each division, but what I believe to be the best bets in each division. The odds that I used are from FanDuel Sportsbook, but as more books release odds it is critical to shop around different books to find the best price.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (+300)
It was no secret that the Vikings were a bit fraudulent last year. They finished the season 13-4 despite a -3 point differential and failed to win their only playoff game against the Giants. However, markets seem to be overreacting to how much Minnesota will be regressing. Their defense, which ranked 16th in defensive EPA per play and is losing some key players, will need to pick up some slack to compete in the NFC. That said, there's a chance that the Vikings enter the season with the best quarterback in the division and will for sure have the best non-quarterback (Justin Jefferson).
Re-tooling will be difficult for Minnesota as they only have five draft picks this year (tied for the fewest in the league) and are still about $15 million over the cap. Even with that, the odds for this division should be a lot flatter across the Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers, all of whom have their flaws. Minnesota shouldn't need another 13-win season to capture this division, but they definitely have enough offensive firepower and coaching smarts to win the NFC North for the second-straight year.
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NFC South: Atlanta Falcons (+450)
Before the Derek Carr news, I would have picked the Saints here, but now their odds have moved to +120 (from +220 previously) in what is possibly the weakest division in football. With that, I'm going with the Atlanta Falcons, who were in contention for the NFC South title for most of last year before dropping four straight games from weeks 12 through 16.
Obviously, the biggest question surrounding the Falcons is the quarterback position. After releasing Marcus Mariota (who wasn't that great last year anyway), Atlanta is left with Desmond Ridder as their only quarterback on the roster (who also didn't play that well in the few games that he started). So, it's no secret that Atlanta will be in the conversation both to trade up for a quarterback in this year's draft or trade for a veteran quarterback that's on the block. But if they can add even a decent option under center, this offense is set up with enough weapons in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and more to be able to do some damage.
Their defense, which ranked 29th in EPA per play last year, needs a lot of work. But Atlanta is also well-equipped to make plenty of moves this offseason. Some of the top free agents —Jessie Bates, Jamel Dean, and James Bradbury, to name a few— are on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta is positioned to contend for the NFC South once again.
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (+175)
Last year, the Dallas Cowboys had a top-10 offense by EPA per play and the second-best defense by EPA per play. They also happen to have who some believe is currently the best quarterback in the NFC on their roster. A big concern with Dallas is their lack of playmakers on offense outside of their backfield as they're set to lose Dalton Schultz to free agency. Now, I also don't totally love the Cowboys giving offensive playcalling duties to Mike McCarthy, but the fact that Dallas was able to keep Dan Quinn as their defensive coordinator is huge and should help make that defense a top-10 unit once again.
However, they are not the division favorite because they're in a division with the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. However, Philadelphia could be seeing a ton of turnover on both sides of the ball with a lengthy list of players set to hit free agency. Philly does have two first-round draft picks, which will help them, but they have also lost both their offensive and defensive coordinator to other head coaching jobs. If all of that doesn't scream regression, I don't know what does.
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (+500)
It makes sense that the 49ers, who just played in the NFC Championship game, are the favorites to win the NFC West. But what doesn't compute is that a Rams team who has already released Bobby Wagner, intends on releasing Leonard Floyd, and has rumored to want to trade Allen Robinson and Jalen Ramsey, has the second-best odds to win the division. Even with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp still, on the Rams, Seattle's odds should be much closer to LA's than they currently are.
Entering last season, the Seattle Seahawks were pegged as a team to be in possible contention for the number one overall pick. Then they went on to make the playoffs. The Seahawks had a stellar 2022 draft, finding players like Ken Walker, Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, and Tariq Woolen. Now they have another ten draft picks, including two first-round picks and four picks in the top 52 total!
They also have about $24 million in cap space that can be spent filling in other holes that the team has. It seems like a good amount of that cap space will go towards retaining quarterback Geno Smith, most likely with a multi-year contract. Fortunately, the rest of their key offensive players will be on the team again in 2023, so repeating a top-10 finish in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA is definitely on the table.
