NBA Player Prop Bets: Valanciunas Bullies the Blazers
With teams seeing the writing on the wall and changing their priorities, it can help to look for a sample size as specific as possible to the odd situation a game may have. Seeing how a player or team reacts to more extreme scenarios can unearth value not necessarily shown in the line. That is a focus of a couple of the props on today’s card.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 27, 2023)
Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105 at PointsBet)
As the Pelicans have found their footing at the right time and are as firmly planted in the play-in as anyone can be in this Western Conference, Jonas Valanciunas has more consistency on the glass.
In the last seven games, Valanciunas is averaging 13.4 rebounds on 21.9 rebounding chances and has gone over this prop in six of those seven. Part of the reason is a higher floor in minutes for Valanciunas, due to the rotations. In most matchups, Valanciunas is not closing as often as Larry Nance, so the second stint in the second half for Valanciunas starts earlier than most. In most blowout situations, starters are not getting pulled until the game is into the fourth quarter, which allows more court time for Valanciunas in his second rotation.
In six games this season, when the Pelicans have won by 15 or more and Zion Williamson has been out of the lineup, Valanciunas has gone over this prop every game and averaged 13.8 rebounds on 20.5 rebounding chances. It is relevant for today, where the Pelicans are playing the tanking Blazers, who are on the second night of a back-to-back, and at the moment, New Orleans is an 11-point favorite at most books. This number would likely be higher or at least have different juice if the game had a better outlook but the rotation wrinkle and lack of size from Portland, who will likely be without Jusuf Nurkic again, makes this a spot to trust Valanciunas.
Risk: 1 unit on PointsBet to win 1.05 units. (Playable to -110)
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