NBA Player Prop Bets: Jackson Jr Jump Starts Grizzlies
As races start to crystalize over the last dozen games, being able to know what games matter most to teams down the stretch can go a long way to help find rotational anomalies that are exploitable, as well as the usual matchup-based handicapping.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 26, 2023)
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 18.5 Points (-114 at FanDuel)
In what could be a Defensive Player of the Year campaign for Jaren Jackson, the revitalization of his offensive game is what has helped the Grizzlies stem the tide with all the injuries they have dealt with.
Jackson has gone over this prop in five of his last six games, averaging 27.8 in that span. Since the all-star break, Jackson is averaging 20.8 points. Even with Ja Morant back in the lineup, Jackson’s role has remained consistent, and the only time there has been variation in his shot volume has been due to games being blowouts. In this recent stretch of higher scoring, Jackson has averaged 17.7 shots compared to the 12.2 before that. With no viable inside presence due to injury, the offense has been more funneled to the stars, and Jackson has taken advantage.
The Grizzlies are in Atlanta to take on a Hawks team that is on the second night of a back-to-back. The Hawks are allowing the third most points to PFs in the last two weeks and the second most in the last month. Jackson only scored 15 in their first meeting, but the game was a blowout, and Memphis was without Ja Morant or Desmond Bane. With a total in the mid-240s, there should be plenty of scoring in this game, and with the smaller rotation of trusted scorers for the Grizzlies, Jackson should have every opportunity to go over this prop.
Risk: 1.14 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -122)
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