NBA Player Prop Bets: CP Hits from 3
The focus of the props on today’s 10-game slate is how changing variables with player, team, or opponent this late in the season is creating soft lines to attack.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 29, 2023)
Chris Paul Over 1.5 Threes (+115 at DraftKings)
It is a big day for the Suns with Kevin Durant returning to the lineup, but that also throws a lot of what has been happening the last couple of weeks into flux.
The starter whose role likely changes the most for the Suns with the return of Durant is Chris Paul. Paul will still have his time on the ball but with Devin Booker and Durant, becoming a threat off the ball is a larger portion of his game. In the three games Durant played the Suns, Paul had four, seven, and six attempts from behind the line and went over this prop twice. Defenses would have Chris Paul’s defender wait at the nail to dig at either star driving and dare them to kick to Paul for an open three.
On the season when Paul gets four attempts from behind the line or more, he is 20-10 to the over. If Paul gets five attempts, he has gone 18-4 to the over. Since Durant has been out, Paul is only averaging 1.4 made threes on 4.2 attempts, but the quality of each of those attempts is lower since he moves up a rung on the priority list for defenses.
When Paul is able to be a catch-and-shoot guy, he is much more efficient. Paul has been the second most accurate at catch-and-shoot threes on the season, making 50% on 1.4 attempts a game. In the three games with Durant, Paul averaged 3.3 catch-and-shoot threes.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.15 units. (Playable to -112)
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