Week 6 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen

Week 5 Recap: I felt really, really good about our plays last week. Allen Robinson, Hayden Hurst, and Antonio Gibson all cashed with ease. Of course, we ran into a backdoor buzzsaw that spoiled our week. Baker Mayfield was benched the drive after he busted our passing yardage under. Tyler Allgeier only had six carries in the first half with the Falcons down multiple scores. The Falcons inexplicably continued to establish it in the second half, running him four times on their last drive of the game despite being down 21-7. This left him with 13 carries, spoiling our under on 12.5 carries. We bet J.K. Dobbins over 49.5 rushing yards. He had 41 yards early in the third quarter. He saw just one carry the rest of the game despite a neutral game script, failing a few yards short. After seeing just one target in Weeks 3 and 4, and playing a season-low 40% of snaps in Week 5, the Chiefs made it a focal point to get Mecole Hardman involved on short swing passes, throwing to him twice behind the line of scrimmage. This busted our under of 2.5 receptions. On the other hand, Skyy Moore played a season-high 35% snaps. He finished with 15 receiving yards, one short of the over 15.5 we bet. I can’t say much else other than a truly unreal run out of props to start the season. Despite the bad start, our futures are looking awesome and I know we will turn it around. Want more props? Ryan Noonan's got you covered with his top player prop bets of the week!

Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets

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Raheem Mostert over 12.5 carries (-123 at Caesars)

I would play this to -140. This is a full carry off-market from other sportsbooks which have Mostert at 13.5 carries with -130 juice towards theover. We have more than 14 carries projected and Mostert has started to dominate backfield touches. The Dolphins also may go run-heavy with Skylar Thompson making his first career NFL start and the Vikings' run defense being below average.

Risk 1.23 units to win 1 units at Caesars.

P.J. Walker under 210.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

This number is around 10 yards off. It's unlikely the Panthers come out slinging it with P.J. Walker in his first week without Matt Rhule. We have 206 projected but most median projections have him in the 190's. There are so many ways this can go under whether it's poor efficiency, lack of volume, or a mix of both. Walker has made just two career starts and is very likely as bad or worse than Baker Mayfield.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Kirk Cousins over 22.5 completions (-120 at DraftKings)

Kirk has more than 22 completions in every game so far this season and now faces off against an injury-depleted Dolphins defense. Kirk's stats vs the blitz are bad but when you dig deeper it's mostly just pressure-based which the Dolphins rank dead last in. They also rank 30th in pass defense EPA, and dead-last in pass DVOA. This will likely force him to get the ball out quicker regardless and create opportunities for a lot of quick completions.

We have 23.5 projected.

Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Shi Smith under 22.5 receiving yards (-110 on DraftKings)

Smith is 1/5 to this number and now the Panthers are rolling out P.J. Walker. Smith is the 4th/5th receiving option for the Panthers against the Rams who are 3rd in explosive pass rate allowed, limiting the opportunity of this busting on one long reception.

Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Elijah Moore U3.5 receptions (-130 at DraftKings)

Moore has 4 targets in each of the past two games (Zach Wilson back) with 3 and 1 receptions on a 14.5% target share. Dating back to his rookie season, Moore has fewer than 4 receptions in 6-of-9 games with Wilson, catching just 23-of-50 total targets. They since added standout rookie Garrett Wilson.

This is also spot where both sides play really slow so we should see a depressed overall play volume. The Jets shifted to a run-first approach (14th pass rate over expectation with Flacco to 24th pass rate over expectation with Wilson) and are now operating at a bottom-10 pace. The Packers are playing at the slowest situation neutral pace in the league as well and may look to establish it after somehow losing last week throwing at a higher rate than normal.

I wouldn’t play the yards but he likely sees minimal volume here and even if he does he has been so inefficient he should go under.

Risk 1.30 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Thursday Night Football

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-106 at Caesars)

We have Brian Robinson Jr. projected for 60 yards against Chicago, and for good reason. In his first game back against the Titans, he didn't start but quickly took over as the lead back. He out-carried Antonio Gibson 9-to-3. I know his production wasn't outstanding with just 22 yards but the Titans rank fourth in run DVOA. The Bears rank 25th and 30th in explosive run rate allowed. Robinson's usage perfectly aligns with everything we heard all offseason prior to his incident about him taking over as the early-down back with Gibson just mixing in. Head coach Ron Rivera also came out and said Gibson will likely be used on special teams this week. This further cements Robinson's role against the Bears.

This projects to be a close game where Washington should have no problem moving the ball against the Bears. With a good matchup and a potentially big workload, it's not only worth betting the over at 46.5 but sprinkling some alternate overs as well in case he blows up.

I would play this up to 50 rushing yards.

Risk: 1.06 units to win 1 unit on Robinson over 46+ rushing yards at Caesars.

Risk: 0.1 units to win 0.39 on Robinson 80+ yards (+390) at FanDuel.

Risk: 0.1 units to win 0.58 units on Robinson 90+ yards (+580) at FanDuel.

Risk: 0.1 units to win 0.80 units on Robinson 100+ yards (+800) at FanDuel.

Darnell Mooney & Terry McLaurin Under 8.5 Combined Receptions (+100 at DraftKings)

The pricing here seems off.

Darnell Mooney's reception total is 3.5 with -130 juice to the under having caught no more than two catches in 4-of-5 games this season.

Terry McLaurin's receptions total is 3.5 with -150 juice to the over with reception totals of 2 > 4 > 6 > 2 > 5 and a target share of just 15.6% this season.

I would price this prop at 7.5 around even money. Of the 25 possible game combinations so far between the two of them, they would have combined to go over in only 3/25. I would play this to the standard -115 at 8.5.

To find this, go to H2H player matchups -> Reception H2H and it should be at the top.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

I will update this column throughout the week with more bets.

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