Week 15 Busts: 4 Players to Avoid

Dec 14, 2022

Megan Briggs/Getty Images

I can’t believe we’re here. It’s the first week of the fantasy playoffs. I don’t know about you, but I’m tired. Tired but excited. Each roster move or start/sit decision could decide our season. So we need big days out of all of our players. So, to help out, I’ve found four players likeliest to fall short of their projections that fantasy managers should avoid in Week 15.

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) @ Buffalo

The Chargers utilized a heavy amount of press coverage to disrupt the timing of the Dolphins offense.

Chargers in Press Coverage (Week 14):

🔹 35% of detached routes (season-high)

🔹 Allowed just 1 completion on 8 targets#MIAvsLAC | #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/NCmGBt6zWn

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 12, 2022

Let’s start here.

I considered the 49ers to be a different animal. They had All-Pro or Pro Bowl talent scattered across their entire defense and a coordinator who knew how to pull the right levers. DeMeco Ryans pressed Miami’s receivers at a season-high rate and clogged up the middle of the field with Fred Warner. A genius game plan but an unrepeatable one. Well, at least in theory.

Los Angeles didn’t have nearly the same personnel, but they have a similarly enlightened defensive mind on staff. As a result, we saw Tua Tagovailoa falter again. Week 14 marked his second consecutive week at or near the bottom of the league in EPA per play and CPOE. And the schedule doesn’t get any easier in Week 15.

Buffalo (16.3 aFPA, 18th) just got done turning Mike White into a human less-than symbol after losing Von Miller for the season. Plus, they’ve adjusted their early-season defensive tendencies and are now league-average in man-coverage rate. They have the personnel and the coaching staff to employ a similar strategy that has kept Miami’s passing game in check. If I’m expecting a ceiling performance from my quarterback, I’d look elsewhere in Week 15.