Is Michael Gallup Already A Fading Fantasy Football Star?

It wasn't all that long ago when Michael Gallup was on the verge of a breakout after a second season where he racked up over 1,100 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Fantasy managers had every reason to believe that Gallup was ready to become a star after he finished as the WR15 in half-PPR PPG in 2019, his lone season as the No. 2 receiver in Dallas.

Those good vibes didn't last long because in the 2020 NFL Draft the Cowboys selected CeeDee Lamb, altering the receiver hierarchy and roles in Dallas. However, the biggest change in 2020 didn't come from some massive change in Gallup's utilization, it was Dak Prescott's injury that changed everything.

Fantasy managers don't seem to believe Gallup holds much potential for 2022 or they're concerned with his injury and the possibility he misses several games. However, he's currently being drafted as the WR55 according to Underdog ADP, which leaves plenty of room for upside if he's able to get back on the field sooner than expected.

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How Good is Michael Gallup?

Deciphering how good Gallup is is difficult considering his career circumstances. During his rookie season, Gallup was able to earn 68 targets on a 14.2% target share. The results weren't overwhelming, but he did finish with a 14.7 average depth of target, which ranked 15th in the NFL. Despite his limited targets, he still managed to finish with over 1,000 air yards and another 649 unrealized air yards. That role showed potential entering Year 2.

In his sophomore campaign, Gallup's target share rose to 21.7%. This resulted in a target increase of 44, up to 112 targets. He once again displayed his skills as a down-the-field threat. He finished with 1,491 air yards with a 13.3 average depth of target. Despite his utilization downfield, he still had an 82.1% catchable target rate. This number increased from 67.6% during his rookie season.

During that second season, he finished with 66 receptions, 1,107 yards, and 6 touchdowns. According to Sports Info Solutions, his yard per route run average was 2.2 which was tied for eighth in the NFL among receivers with at least 100 targets. He ended up as the WR22 in half-PPR, but he missed two games and had a 12.8 half-PPR PPG average, which ranked 15th among all receivers. The arrow was definitely pointing, but the 2020 season brought a myriad of challenges for Gallup.

It was during that offseason the Cowboys added CeeDee Lamb to the mix alongside Cooper and Gallup. This effectively moved Gallup to No. 3 on Prescott's pecking order. That would end up hurting his week-to-week consistency, but it didn't seem to hurt his weekly upside. In the first five weeks of the season—prior to Dak's horrific ankle injury—Gallup had 28 targets, a pace of 96 for the whole year. This would've been slightly lower than the 112 targets the year prior. While that wasn't ideal, his role offered plenty of upside.

He was averaging 95 air yards per game for a pace of 1,615 air yards over 17-games. This would've been a career-high. Based on those first five games of the 2020 season, we can reasonably assume Gallup would have been a boom-or-bust player who had week-winning upside. Through five weeks, he was the overall WR29 in half-PPR.

Once Dak got injured, Galuup's air yards fell by over 25 yards per game and he ended up as the WR45 forms Weeks 6–17. Despite moving into a third-wheel role, primarily being used as just a deep threat, and losing his starting quarterback, Gallup still finished with 843 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Michael Gallup



Yearly Yards per Route Run:



1.37

1.34

2.16 (2019)

1.32



Can you spot the outlier❓



Sadly outside of 2019 he’s been a run of the mill NFL WR.



Jalen Tolbert & Dalton Schultz have big time upside. One of them could easily seize the number 2 role behind Lamb.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 26, 2022

Was 2019 really an outlier or did Gallup have so many different circumstances negatively affecting him that it became increasingly difficult for him to stay productive? There's no denying his yard per route run dropped significantly in 2020 and 2021. You'll recall his 82.1% catchable target rate from his 2019 season—that number dropped to 64.8% in 2020. This past season, Prescott would be back under center, but unfortunately, things didn't change much in any injury-plagued season for the four-year pro.

In Week 1 of last season, Gallup strained a calf muscle and would be put on IR and missed seven games. Then in Week 17, he ended up tearing his ACL. How much that early-season calf strain affected him is impossible to know. However, Gallup averaged the fewest yards per game since his rookie season and was on pace for 869 yards, roughly equivalent to his 2020 output. His target share dropped to 16.6%, which was the lowest since his rookie season. Unfortunately, we don't have a Reception Perception profile on Gallup from his 2021 season, but we do have one from 2020, his first season after Lamb arrived where he was moved into the No. 3 role.

While the above picture doesn't paint Gallup as a star, he still appears to be a quality receiver who, in the right situation, can be an effective player. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about him following his 2020 campaign:

"It doesn’t get brought up nearly enough that Gallup plays the most difficult receiver role in the Cowboys’ offense. Since he’s their best receiver against press coverage, right now, Gallup is the only one who can consistently play the X-receiver position. Gallup lined up outside on 95 percent of his sampled snaps and was on the line for 78.4 percent. Gallup also runs the most difficult routes on the tree at a high rate. Given that he thrives in this difficult role and a player like Cooper is best suited in positions other than X-receiver, it’s hard to argue with the Cowboys continuing to lean on Gallup here. Gallup’s 72 percent success rate vs. man coverage demonstrates he’s an underrated route runner. With a 75.5 percent success rate vs. press coverage, we see he’s developing a wide variety of release moves that give him an edge when running vertical patterns. Gallup’s best work comes on the curls and comebacks. He leads all players charted from 2020 in comeback routes by a decent margin and maintained a strong 75.6 percent success rate. These routes can be the basis of any NFL receiver’s portfolio but it’s far from some of the layup targets other players in the receiver corps get on a regular basis."

This type of in-depth film analysis puts some perspective on Gallup's 2020 season and most likely his 2021 season, as well. With Cooper now out of the picture and Lamb being a more well-rounded receiver now than he was in 2020, could the Cowboys be more creative with Gallup when he returns?

Late-Round Steal or Roster Clogger?

This past season Gallup was more of a roster clogger. He was getting just enough targets on a high-powered offense where he could pop off at any week, but it wasn't enough that fantasy managers could predict when a "boom" week was coming. This season could be different, however, but they'll most likely have to wait to find out.

Jerry Jones: Michael Gallup could be a question mark Week 1 https://t.co/lNmQiYAYdg #NFL #fantasyfootball

— 4for4 Fantasy Football (@4for4football) March 28, 2022

Gallup tore his ACL in Week 17 and didn't end up having surgery until February, which will likely cost him a few games this year. Starting on the PUP list and missing the first four weeks of the season shouldn't be ruled out. This unknown is negatively affecting his ADP, which sits at WR55.

Sure Michael Gallup may miss 2-3 weeks.



But when he returns, he's the clear-cut No.2 in a DAL offense that has ranked 1st in tot. yds (2nd in pass yd) & top-5 in pass TDs in both of Kellen Moore + Dak's full seasons



He's also really, really good. Steal of drafts right now

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) June 8, 2022

The Dallas offense is in need of someone stepping up this season after the losses of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson. The financial agreement they came to with Gallup says they still believe he's their guy. There is a lot of opportunity waiting for him once he does get back on the field.

The Cowboys have the ninth-most vacated air yards in the NFL this year at 1,898. They also have the 11th-most vacated targets at 205 and 181 of those were directed at receivers last year, the eighth-most. If that wasn't fantasy-friendly enough, the Cowboys' offense was first in points scored and yards gained in 2021. They also ranked sixth in attempts, second in passing yards, and third in passing touchdowns.

While some fantasy managers are high on third-round rookie Jalen Tolbert, the reality is he's just a rookie and a fifth-year declare out of South Alabama. Expecting such a late declare to come in as a rookie and make the jump from South Alabama to the pros and become a legit target-earner in his rookie season is unlikely. The primary risk in selecting Gallup this year is centered around his health.

Michael Gallup currently has an ADP of WR50. He was WR11 in terms of PPG in 2019 prior to Lamb's arrival. He was the WR2 to Cooper that season. If you knew he would miss just 2 games, where would you draft him in 2022?

— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) May 8, 2022

If fantasy managers could be assured he would miss just four games and come back fully healthy, his WR55 ADP would be of tremendous value. Upon his return, his role carries top-30 upside and would make him a prime target for anyone drafting right now. At his ADP, the risk is baked appropriately into the cost and fantasy managers shouldn't shy away from throwing a dart at him this summer. If he's healthy, he has the skillset and opportunity to solidly outplay his current ADP and if it doesn't materialize because of health, the loss is just a 10th-rounder.

The Bottom Line

• Gallup's overall stats and efficiency numbers have decreased in the past two seasons as he's had to deal with Prescott's injury and a difficult role change to incorporate Cooper and Lamb.
• His 2020 Reception Perception profile still displayed a quality receiver who could be a worthwhile fantasy asset in the right situation
• Fantasy managers have seen Gallup star as the No. 2 receiver for Dallas before—back in 2019 when he was a top-15 WR in half-PPR PPG.
• His unknown injury status presents a giant red flag because it's currently unknown how many games he'll miss and how healthy he will be upon his return.
• Dallas has ample vacated targets, which presents opportunity for Gallup to re-ascend to that No. 2 role and become a fantasy value to fantasy managers at his depressed ADP.